A big article on page 1 of today's Wall St. Journal about the new heart drug from Novartis. It works in a different way from OMI so they might work better together. However, there is nothing stopping the control group in a phase 3 trial from dropping out to take the Novartis drug. If a large number of control patients drop out then it may cause the trial data to fail.
In the press release for the first time it was mentioned that Linn is 100% hedged in NG and 80% hedged in oil. Then it was stated that Berry has Zero hedges. Now it gets interesting. If Berry still exists as a corporate subsidiary then Linn might have the option of declaring Berry bankrupt but not Linn.
In regards to Rintega- After the Glioblastoma trial started two PD-1 inhibitors came to market and they are now the hottest cancer drugs going (Keytruda from Merck and Opdivo from BMY ). They are currently approved for melanoma and lung cancer. Currently they are being used in over 100 different trials for more than 30 different types of cancer. How many control patients dropped out of the Rintega trial to try a PD-1 inhibitor ? A large number of dropouts who have progressed will shift the data for OS in any trial.
In Sept. 2014, Exelixis announced that a trial for its drug Cometrig, in prostate cancer failed to show a survival benefit. Early in 2015, the investigators gave a paper that stated that 67% of the control group dropped out of the trial before it ender. The 33% controls that were left were the patients that had not progressed so the control group had a much longer survival time then all previous trials. What happened ? After the trial started the FDA approved a hot new prostate cancer drug from Bayer (Radium chloride) and the control group who progressed jumped ship to try the new drug.
1) Neither Line or LNCO have a large short position so forget a short squeeze as the cause of the dramatic stock price increase.
2) All the worlds storage tanks are full so the current price rise is mostly just wish full thinking.
3) There are about 1000 wells drilled but not fracked. At 1000 barrels. a day per well that's the equivalent of
1 million barrels a day that will be brought into production fast if oil prices rise.
4) Everyone follows the rig count but it is no longer that important. Why ? Have any of you ever heard of pad drilling ? In shale areas the rig is placed on a skid or track and pushed along to the next location. In the old days the rig was taken apart and put on a flat bed truck and moved. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE TIME NEEDED TO FINISH A WELL AND START A NEW ON HS BEEN CUT IN HALF. HALF THE NUMBER OF RIGS CAN NOW DRILL AS MANY WELLS AS WOULD BE DRILLED SEVERAL YEARS AGO.
I know PDX is protected with a lot of hedges. However, some organizations on the other side of the transaction are out billions of dollars. Can these people afford to loose that kind of money and is there any chance they will go bankrupt and default ?
Linn has stated that they are 100% hedged in NG for 2016 and 2017 and 70% hedged in oil for 2016.
Otherwise Linn wouldn't need to reorganize.
If the hedges were functioning correctly Linn would have positive cash flow in 2016.
In a hedge there is a party on the other side that has agreed to buy oil for $90 or $4 NG. The other party is now in the red for a couple of billion $. Suppose the other party is a foreign bank , utility or oil refiner and they have defaulted. Remember they fired the CFO about 6 months ago. Maybe the hedges were just phony entries on the books.