Good post. The fact that the two patients who died had bad infections before the drug was given eliminates most of the downside risk for this stock. They plan on screening potential patients for the level of PSMA prior to treatment will boost the % responders and greatly increase the chance of the drug getting approved.
I am most interested in finding out if any big drug company steps in and takes a good sized piece of the new stock offering. Some people like Roche, BMY,Merck or Amgen are on the hunt for acquisions. If the trial results look good this company is a takeover candidate.
and most of the pipelines travel through the Ukraine. Any shortfall in Russian supplies to Europe will have to come from the middle east by ship. Good for tanker rates.
Between the two of you and some other people on this board can you resolve this question since it's quite important. Also, it wouldn't hurt if the company put out some kind of an answer.
Look for a stock price recovery if the press conference can propose a reasonable answer for the neutropenia problem. The Baker Brothers are an extremely large stockholder in Seattle Genetics and they are well aware of the possible problems. I wouldn't be surprised if they bought more stock today.
I didn't realize that the short position was so high. The pros seem to think the trial results will be negative.
Things could get interesting if they have good results or get a buyout offer.
It wasn't the trial data. It was the $150 million proposed shelf offer of stock that was just announced. (dilution)
Seattle Genetics had similar toxicity problems with it's approved lymphoma drug Adcetris and a few patients died. Both Seattle Genetics and the Progenics drugs use the same cytotoxic agent.
I have looked at abstracts 83, 94, 266, 201 which were published by Progenics.
Abstract # 83 deals with the PSMA-drug conjugate. Two of the patients who developed neutropenia died of sepsis. The rest of the patients saw improvement in the markers for prostate cancer. It is up to Progenics to propose some way to prevent the sepsis such as using an antibiotic. Wait and see what management says at the news conference.
Phase III OM for the oral drug will be very expensive. I believe for the oral drug that CYTK has to pay half the cost of the trial if they want marketing rights.