I am only talking about investing in companies themselves and the sector has no meaning as there are good companies and bad companies in each sector. Also the history I speak of is in the first few days of the new offering of a company. PSEC (which I do own) had an offering a couple years back that saw the share price fall below the NAV over a few days trading, then trade flat for really the last two years, even though the offer was higher than NAV. An ETF that would follow the sector may or may not reflect the offer of an individual company in the sector as the other companies may improve that day offsetting the one that had the Offer. I have BDC's and keep them long term but buy them at or below NAV. I expect a good BDC to improve their NAV which will improve the ROR, but even if they held their NAV the dividend of 10% or better is a very good ROR over a year.
Maybe I do. But I am long in VVTV so I really don't care that much about the day price (although I have fun with posting). Long term I believe that if management continues to move revenue forward and cost down and improves the operations (in this case both product mix and new facility), the price per share itself will eventually move in the right direction. If I had any frustration it is how Wallstreet places a value on a company. Considering VVTV I just think Wallstreet has it totally wrong. But then again considering VVTV's size I guess it is understandable. But when the sleeping giant of Wallstreet wakes up then a true PTP fair value at the minimum should happen. That has yet to happen to VVTV IMHO. But as more earnings are announced through 2014 and 2015, I do think recognition will come and when it does VVTV will get its just due. Fair value PTP is only the first step, after that is what premium Wallstreet will place on them and that would be the final run. Then if VVTV management continues to deliver good results, Wallstreet will continue to reward their efforts until they see a slow in growth. I argue we are years away from that right now, so lets take one step at a time.
The Clinton Groups are only a distraction and I argue harmful because of the cost they cause to other share holders while they play their game in shorting and buying shares and shorting and buying. Now if VVTV was truly ran by some incompetent management then a private equity activist or a change in management would be the right approach. But it is not today.
Look I was involved in a small way back in the late 1990's in getting management out in VVTV at the time they tried to sell the company for if I remember $3.54 per share. We succeeded and a year or so later the price per share was $65 or so. In full disclosure I got out at $16 (regret I didn't do good DD back then on the real value and missed most of the run). Today is different as the right team is in place now. All JMHO.
No I don't miss a Group that has failed to deliver with its slat of executives and BOD of their quest to increase share holder value in Wet Seal. VVTV is the better without them. As more earnings announcements come in, VVTV pps will advance and the talk of the Clinton Group will be considered as, a dodge of a bullet for the share holders of VVTV
I think they did this to fend off the Clinton Group (put a dagger in them) so if any of the Clinton Group nominees were to get in VVTV would still control the BOD. But I could be wrong. The do bring more diversity to the table than the QVC and HSN only ideas. This is good and some institutions will look at this move as a very good move to broaden VVTV strategically with outside ideas. Action from these resources is what many will be watching. I view this as a good move when looking at the experience of these two, especially Hobbs.
I expect the Clinton Group will or is selling its holdings. If not to support their Wet Seal mistake, but for seeing the writing on the wall going toward the VVTV annual meeting. That current share holders are in full support for the current management and their plan and the Clinton Group or Clinton themselves don't have a chance to get the majority behind them. This activity by the Group or Clinton and Cannell will continue to put pressure on the pps for awhile. I now expect we will hear no more from them, nor see any slate of directors for the annual meeting. But it may not be over if Q1 disappoints. Mine is speculation that Q1 will be good enough to make them go away
If I am wrong and Q1 fails to deliver then we could see a move up in pps as the group reforms and then takes an active stake once more (i.e. redo) and would have a stronger footing for success.
Well there is two sides of this coin. One is in the earnings announcement with the drop in the NAV to 9.85 which I would argue is a negative. Then there is two, the offering is above the NAV which adds value to the current shareholders. If history to these BDC when they have an offering they retrace back to a discount to NAV for awhile, then we can expect a further decline in the pps even from where we currently trade. This is usually short lived and by the next earnings announcement could recoup to the NAV. I expect to see the pps get to $9.70 or so at the low today or Monday. Now we all know that once the dividend goes ex the pps will drop by .29. Once that happens we could see a price of $9.41 if the low were to hold to that ex date. Either way IMHO if you are in for the dividend then it is not a big deal in the long run..., it just looks bad in the short run. In the end the business is using the funds to create more share holder value which could bring a higher dividend and that is a good thing. Rest assure this this will not be the last offering, that is what these BDC's do. However it may be a couple of years before we see another offering, all things the same until then. All JMHO.
After the dividend is paid out many sell the shares. A mistake for sure but an opportunity for many others. What is misunderstood is the ex date. The ex date is the date they reduce the pps the amount of the dividend. Now those who hold through the ex date close and sell the next day will not only get the pps of the day they sold but also the dividend which should be credited to your account on the Payout or distribution date. If you receive the dividend in stock you most likely will not see the added shares on the payout date becomes some companies wait until the end of the month. Hope this helps. Again this has been my experience and may not apply to BGCP's rules.
I think if you sell at a profit it is ok, but if you sell at a lose, you have to wait 30 days. Am I correct in this, anyone who has experience in this matter? I do not day trade so I could be wrong.
Let me clarify the 2.87 is a percentage move in one or the other direction so it can move 2.87% up and then 2.87% down in the same day or anything in between. Above or below that will show the trend. So 2.87 is a percentage (%) not a dollar amount.
The beta is 2.87 which indicates the stock can move 2.87 in either direction during the day. Anything beyond that indicates up or down break.
Thanks jme for posting..., now the stock can move up again.
I noticed an almost 7 million trade at the close last Friday. I too wonder what is up with these trades. One would think some information from the company would be useful to answer this activity.
This can in a small way help RAD. We saw $7 hit today and as I did expect it would do this week, it is still below the fair value of $7.50. Once it got above $7 pressure came in from the sellers waiting for that to hit, thus pulling back a bit currently. This afternoon we could see the smart money come in, in the last hour pushing us back to that $7 or a bit over. But for now we will let the weak hands shake out and that is just fine with me. Once we get over $7 and hold that for a few days, getting to fair value ($7.50) will be easy IMHO. If not next week, it should come with the March same sales numbers.
Sometimes one has to think..., why so much misinformation about VVTV, why is it being held back? Then again, What a great opportunity we have in seeing the real story and getting in before the others realize the errors of misinformation. We may have to wait awhile, but I think the wait will be worth it.
A conservative company that doesn't play the hype game. IMHO the price has yet to reflect the Google Glass effect and only shows the path to fair value $17.33 with their current products in the market. Google Glass when launched will add more value. Also absolutely no, NO value has been added to the "Multiple" customers with products in the development stage.
On another note Google announced today a two for one split effective April 2nd.
It should be meaningless. Unfortunately we will continue to trade in a range well below our PTP fair value until some (groups) dispose their holdings. Without any new analysts announcements for upgrades since earnings and no real new institutional activity we are stuck in a rut. But that is just the short term. The positive here is the base activity that is building a strong foundation. As we creep closer to the current range with the 52 week low point, (currently $3.16) to the next leg up on April 10 or so to $3.75 (est.) the chart is taking hold once more to have a pretty good move up if Q1 numbers are good. As with VVTV and its difficulties to show Wallstreet it is for real, Q1 could help alleviate that concern.
The question comes down however, to that ball and chain IMHO or Clinton Group, if they pursue and continue to disrupt VVTV's progress with their activity they planned for the annual meeting with their slate of directors. I do not think they will, as I think support has diminished and they may be slowly reducing their stake along the way. However Q1 is what is in play to put this to bed or resurrect it once again. This is why KS and Team need to deliver their plan to the fullest and beat the street number for Q1. Now if we look at the comments KS made in the CC by playing down Q1, this could indicate a surprise to come for the quarter in the end. Let's hope that is the case. Looking to Q2 may bring the institutions back in a big way, providing the outcome of Q1 is as I expect to be (a beat). Q2 is and has been the most difficult in the past, but with this year I think it will be much better and that it will be the quarter Wallstreet will finally notice VVTV has become a real growth opportunity. Again JMHO.
I think the FMIC you mentioned helps companies like NLY as insurance on defaults. Anyone else want to chime in on this..., It is a very good question.
I have never shorted this stock..., period! I only am warning that once they stop selling smokes it will hit the bottom line. But you still have time to ride it..., just don't be the one closing the door and turning out the lights.