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ValueVision Media, Inc. Message Board

trumpace 645 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 41 minutes ago Member since: Jul 13, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Wet Seal

    by trumpace 6 hours ago
    trumpace trumpace 2 hours 41 minutes ago Flag

    mar I look at the price/sales metrics and EVLV looks like a screaming buy and since most analysts I follow think that metrics would indicate a sell at 1.5. EVLV is at .55. This tells me that the pps could move to $18-19 before it would be considered a sell. However it is not, which tells me there is a heck of a lot of doubt this new team can fulfill its goals. Thus the "must" factor to beat the street consistently by MB to get Wallstreet to begin its process believing EVLV is worth the investment. It comes down to delivery of the numbers to prove to everyone they are for real. I do hope MB is the right guy to lead this company.

  • Simply put..., STOCK OF THE YEAR!

    $22 year end for 2015. Too optimistic? We shall see.

  • Take a look at the pps of Wet Seal. IMHO the Clinton Group really did a number on them. Close to bankruptcy or in it now with a pps of six cents. WOW! Maybe GE knows something..., I am getting nervous.

  • The Bonds they retired are considered debt I believe and fact they got rid of them and will save the interest paid on them will have a slight positive impact. Just part of their effort to get the balance sheet in better shape. More of this paying down debt should be pursued when the cash is available. In addition when the opportunity rises to refinance debt at lower interest charges, they need to jump at the chance to take advantage to reduce the cost of money. 2015 the breakout for RAD.

    Love the continued base building this morning great volume.

  • Looks like GE is back selling shares again considering the volume this morning. No doubt they will sell 100K shares then step back for the rest of the day to see the pps recover.

  • Reply to

    Value

    by pet2401 9 hours ago

    NAV is as of 9/30 $10.47 up from $10.20. Value is there and Value is in the pps for buyers today as a huge discount to the real value is not factored into the pps. Add that the Dividend is 12% even with the new dividend announced, then add in any special at the end of 2015 and today we are seeing a screaming buy IMHO.

  • Reply to

    2015 Predictions

    by cd_iso Dec 11, 2014 6:09 AM

    Sorry for the post on FTR board, I ment it for the RAD board.

  • Reply to

    Thanks Grier

    by gym5000 Dec 18, 2014 4:03 PM
    trumpace trumpace 22 hours ago Flag

    I don't understand why some post the way they do. Either you like the investment for a reason or sell it and move on. What is it that some people? Look at the fundamentals of your investment and buy or sell on them. BDC are not good short term investments as much as they are great long term investments that pay you for the wait. Now I am not big on re investing the dividend but at today's price of PSEC it makes sense. When the NAV is at a huge discount and the fundamentals are strong then re invest the dividend. However, when the NAV is at a premium remove the re investment code and take the dividend, then write a covered call at a strike of just below the NAV or in the money to protect the downside if an equity issuance is announced.

  • Reply to

    Very Interesting Presentation

    by trumpace 23 hours ago
    trumpace trumpace 23 hours ago Flag

    I take it you didn't listen to it. But do what you want and sell if you do not like the company. I am a buyer of this well run company. Everyone is entitled to their opinion..., but not to their own facts. I listened to the facts today right from the main source of facts, that is good enough for me. A 12% dividend with opportunity for additional percentages in a special..., I am good with that. Add to that the spin off and what 's not to like.

  • We may see upgrades tomorrow now that the analysts have had a chance to digest the numbers. Although we did not close at $7 today we should tomorrow. Keep in mind the 52 week high has yet to be hit and that that high at the time was when the balance sheet was weaker than it is today. The volume was 4X the normal, a very positive sign of further price increases ahead IMHO.

  • Well done and very informative. No time table on the spin off. Good reasons given for the dividend decrease and went on to say likely a special dividend would come if they are above the regulation they are under. Seems the tax selling has hurt a bit along with the S&P removal from the index. He went on to say once January comes this will no longer be an issue and sees improvement. What I got from the presentation is that this company is well managed and good steward of the shareholders investments. They have only a . 3% default rate down from a 4.5% back in 2009. They further talked about the work they did to prevent that type of default from happening again if that event would reoccur. They have moved more to short term floating rates to adjust in a rising rate environment. All Good IMHO. I am thinking of adding before the end of the year.

  • Reply to

    Shift underway.

    by trumpace Dec 18, 2014 9:59 AM
    trumpace trumpace Dec 18, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    IMHO because of today's volume we will have to see another step up before we see a gap down. I think because of the volume today we are entering a new pattern. So that said we could see a gap up to $7.50 before a gap down. Once we see the gap down spread to the gap up we can estimate each going forward for 2015. Again JMHO.

  • Reply to

    GE in standby mode?

    by mr_harry_lime Dec 15, 2014 12:16 PM
    trumpace trumpace Dec 18, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    mr_harry,
    well, then for the day they sold in just one category 1M. Do you know what the other segments did? There is so much low hanging fruit at evine that IMHO it would be so easy to get to one billion sales it's not even funny! IMHO if evine could get to an average daily total all business segments (TV, mobil, internet) of 3M we could be over 1B in sales per year. Now you factor in the Christmas season and being over 300M should be doable for Q4. But for now I'd take205- 210M for Q4 considering the changes management has made in the quarter. What I really want to see is the return rate down significantly for the quarter and year as a total. Besides I'd like to see a profit every quarter because I think this is what will show Wallstreet the company has improved its operations.

  • Reply to

    Shift underway.

    by trumpace Dec 18, 2014 9:59 AM
    trumpace trumpace Dec 18, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    Just an update:

    It looks like I was a bit low on my volume number today. As we are now on our way to 4 times the daily volume it is looking very strong going into the close and it is more likely we should hit $7 with 100M+ in volume. Looks like the base build will be $6.70 bottom vs my $6.50. It is nice to see a new resistance level being set for RAD. Anyone who decides to short RAD right now will be making a huge mistake in my opinion. The reason I believe shorting today is a mistake is because of this new resistance level being set. What should come next in this chart is, what I call, the step up pattern through 2015 especially if RAD consistently beats the street numbers. So the chart should look like a stair step with minor dips along the way to setting new 52 week highs each time after the dip. This is as long as there isn't any negative surprises for 2015. The question is could RAD double from here, IMHO absolutely! But only if we see the stair step throughout the year. ALL JMHO.

  • Reply to

    PSEC gets downgrade from Barclays

    by trumpace Dec 18, 2014 12:41 PM
    trumpace trumpace Dec 18, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    h9, I am long PSEC, so don't get me wrong. I just found the Barclays downgrade a bit strange.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by ahrvincent Dec 18, 2014 9:19 AM
    trumpace trumpace Dec 18, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    Well, you are right about the guidance but as for a weak CFO I disagree. The CFO is just conservative because of not knowing what the effect of the ACA and the lower drug pricing effect will have on RAD. It seems they now have a better understanding and have given a better out look for 2015. What is missing IMHO is the front end sales and IMHO this is the segment that will bring in the earnings beats in 2015. IMHO the front end sales of 1.6 on this report will increase to 2.1 or more for 2015 if one looks at what changes they are making for that segment of the business over the expected increase in cigarette sales they get from CVS. I still think their guidance, although good for 2015, is still conservative. I like conservative CFO's.

  • Right before this cc today. What's with that?

  • Reply to

    GE in standby mode?

    by mr_harry_lime Dec 15, 2014 12:16 PM
    trumpace trumpace Dec 18, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    A couple of things.
    The last GE trade I have as 12/8 but nothing since and the pps had a good move up Wednesday. Still undervalued but this could be because many investors want to see the numbers this team will have for Q4, which is a pretty high bar for this team to beat vs 2013.

    Next, is a question for mr_harry..., the million dollars you mentioned in your post above, what was the time frame? Day, Hour?

    The Pamela McCoy should do well with the evine live format, but it is about how well she will do with the mobil part of the equation that is yet to be answered.

    In the end management has chosen this direction and the results are on them. If they come up short there is no excuses blaming any item or cause they can make. For if they start to make excuses for failure we will see a sell off (including me) and a lot of faith in these guys will fall hard. The have yet to go to the 24/7 platform for the TV segment of the business and that is the low hanging fruit during this Holiday season they could have taken advantage of IMHO. So a lot is on them to prove to shareholders and potential investors they are the ones that will exploit the true value hidden assets they promoted for the reason for a change in management. So the "put up or shut up" is in play.

  • trumpace by trumpace Dec 18, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Well, we are seeing a shift underway today. The shift is where the short term thinking shareholders believe in the theory sold to them on the premise that "pigs get slaughtered". Old money out new money in. However keep in mind that for every sell there is a buy. The thinking of the seller today is the "pigs get slaughtered" theory. The buyers on the other end think "I want to get in now because the stock has the ability to double from here". But who is right? That comes down to fundamentals and in my opinion they are very strong for RAD. Sell if you will but I think the buyers today are the ones who understand the potential for good earnings for RAD for the next year. Now we should have twice the normal volume or more today because of the shift and the new holders coming in. Watch the last hour as the institutions come into play if they haven't already. With this shift one could see a new bottom range being set for RAD at $6.50 for 2015. But we should see a price above $7 at the close today with this shift but no less than $6.88. Although $7.50 by year end is my short term target that I posted before, IMHO that target should be an easy one to hit if you factor in Fair Value. So that said let this shift continue, the more volume the better because it sets the base price. Shake the traders out for now (they will be back at higher prices to nibble at their pennies) and let the investors come in for the growth period of RAD.

  • Reply to

    2015 Predictions

    by cd_iso Dec 11, 2014 6:09 AM
    trumpace trumpace Dec 18, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Well as we see today, RAD is on the right track. Great numbers! and 2015 looking to be the breakout year. It could be my numbers for 2015 are a bit on the conservative side.

VVTV
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