Sorry but history proves that these events were seen by government and IMHO planned by government. Oil is only acting on a supply and demand free market action. The Saudi's are not cutting production, the U.S. foreign imports are down by 50% and China has slowed their growth (for now). These are market actions and not "Black Swan Events". But for the U.S. the savings with lower fuel prices will help most of our economy in the long term. If prices stay low we could see a boom year for the consumer in retail purchases and further lowering their household debt. All good. Long term holders may be off with their timing but they make the most by their disciplined approach. Buy PSEC for the future.
What a discussion going on. Thought I'd chime in to straighten things out a bit. First off None of the events should be considered "Black Swan Events". All of the things from Lehman too Banks too Housing were foretold years in advance because of government medaling. The housing issue started in the middle of the 1990's when Clinton called to the White House all the heads of banking and told them to give home loans to low income at no money down or face audits of their businesses. The banks warned of the defaults that would come but the administrations told them to do it anyway because they did not think it would happen the way the banks said. The government relaxed the loan ratio to 40 to 1. Banks to spread the risk broke up mortgages and sold the paper (derivatives), then came the defaults and low and behold the housing crisis. The banks followed closely behind as the paper dropped and their reserve ratios fell. Add to that, the withdrawals of deposits. Lehman was the largest private controller of the paper and was the victim of the cause. Fanny and Freddy where the government mortgage entities and went into receivership. The next phase of this problem was in 2007 when the SEC (further government medaling) removed the uptick rule that was in place since around 1935. The uptick rule is a protection to the stock market to prevent a crash like the one in 1929 to get prolonged by having the shorts control the market (it is more complex than this), thus the market collapse in 2008 thru March 9 of 2009. All this gave the government what they wanted (both Parties progressive sides), a crisis and move the power of the political system toward government dependency. That's the history.
As for oil. Almost all the drilling, and fracking are on PRIVATE land not PUBLIC land and without it we would have been in a depression worse that that of 1929 through 1941. Oil being down now is a good thing OVER TIME for an economy as the savings trickle down to citizens. Again Over Time.
One thought why EVLV is holding up could be that buyers are waiting to see a large sell order before they jump in and gobble up the shares and GE is saying they want a good price for their shares they are selling. Who will blink first is the question.
rs I hopeyou are right.
mar, in order for EVLV to have the value it once had it needs to increase cash by way of profit, which increases book value. The need to reduce the share count to propel the number. One of my fears is the chance of an equity offering. But as with rs I do hope your estimate of a pps will come, But I do think it is years off, if at all. My faith in the company and management is not as strong as yours.
mar, how many shares did they have at the time? That too is a factor. I sure would like to know how EVLV did for Cyber Monday. I would like to see this new team give guidance, but know that won't happen. I don't like the new name. I am having some reservations MB is up for the job as the focus i.e. name change was not needed and money not well spent. I'd like to know more about the new facility. Put it this way, I'd like to hear more from MB about the important aspects of our business than just cheerleading and doing minor non sense (name change). I am not sure what focus group the used to come up with the color or name for this change but it looks more to me they didn't and just bought a failed buddy business for their name. Goofy! So lets stop the goofy and get down to business of business and throw the share holders a bone to let them know how sales are going. Before we can talk about $62 we need to sustain $6.2 and have a real plan from management to measure their performance to get it to $12.4 then $18.6 and so on. Also what about carriage cost? what will MB be doing about them? What about the GE drip? Why are they selling? At the least MB could address this situation. Oh well, as you can see mar, I am not excited yet about this new team and am thinking of pairing down my holdings at the first sight of a problem and it could be the Q4 sales coming in below that of 2013. I'd like to hear from MB that holiday sales were better than 2013's at the least..., that would calm my fears a bit.
It has been in the media for a month now, every day. The major issue is supply and what China was doing and the outcome from their build up because of expected growth that failed to materialize. Once China gets through the over supply issues, things will settle out and the price will start to rise again. Now you add that the Saudies are holding production levels the same because they want to drive the price lower than the break even point for U.S. production and they want to put further pressure on Iran and Russia, thus here we are. HERO will be ok in time but will have to go through some tough times for now. But oil will rise again. IMHO with all the supply coming on line and the Saudi effect, along with China's growing pain we have see gyrations up and down for the past 5 years. Now you add in the U.S. production levels and there you have it..., a mess. So I expect drilling will slow or even has slowed and that within the next three to six months oil will be back above todays levels in to the range of $70 to $78. Bad for HERO true but good for us as we will be able to load the truck for the future. Look if anyone thinks oil will sat below $100 per barrel for a long time..., then they do not understand the dynamics oil actually effects. There are countries that bases their budgets off the sale of oil, there are thousands of companies that use oil in their products. Not to mention the main use of energy and transportation industries dependence. 2015 will be a boom year for savings in the oil product costs for all economies of the world except the ones that depend on the oil revenue to fund their governments. But when these countries wake up and cut production that is when the party is over and back to $100+ we go and then HERO will have it's day as demand returns to HERO's business.
OK I'll play too. First off dido on the disclaimer except the telecom part as I am well diversified in several industries. Now for my six:
1. A continuation of expanding in rural areas.
2. An increase in the dividend above the dividend increase announcement made yesterday I think it could be .11 per quarter by next year at this time or at least announced for 2016.
3. they could drop that ad campaign and replace it with another.
4. No change on the sales teams.
5. Like all companies they will continue to lobby for their benefit.
6. No change here other than continue to improve broadband side of the business anyway they can.
As for the pps like I said right now it should be $7.51. But for the end of 2015 look for a low of $9.50 and a high of $11 for a range.
mar, oil is down, more spending money for customer but oil down for 5 years? Dream on! Ain't going to happen. Enjoy it while you can. A few months ago when I did my model I could only get to $58 at the bottom with value at $60-65 but for only about a month or maybe two, then a move back to $73-78 could go into summer but next year at this time look for $85 oil. It is hard enough to do a model on oil out a year much less than 5 years IMHO. There is just to many dynamics right now. Now my model deals with China Growth factor at between 5 and 7%. However if they start the next step in their growth phase, oil will once again move up past $100. Remember oil is a double edge sword. it helps economies get out of problems but creates demand as nations start the rebuild causing demand for oil to increase. However, it is great to see prices down, now lets see some of that savings go to the workers in the world, they help retail the most.
grg retail will go up as oil comes down because of cheaper gas prices when filling up the family mini van. Remember for every penny drop in the price of a gallon of gas adds one billion dollars to the economy. With the drop in the last month, it should be a very Merry Christmas for retailers, as we saw with the sales increase of .7% in the retail report.
You have a right to Your OPINION. But if you look at the financials you get the answer and she is growing the company through acquisition. You may not like this, but you are not running the company either. The market must agree with her as the pps has gained over the year but still undervalued a bit. I do not expect all posters to agree with me but I do expect them to do their own homework or just post an opinion like you have. That is fine. Message boards like Yahoo should never take the place of research one needs to do. You don't get the answers here that is. Message boards can steer some to do research and that is what I do. However, if one wants to hang their hat on a message board opinion or recommendation without doing further work, i.e. verify, verify, verify, then when the results of their decision to buy or sell doesn't work out they have only themselves to blame. I would add if you read many of the boards you will find a lot of bashers that took this route without doing their homework and relied on a message board for their research without doing the hard work, and yet blame the company. That's self denial IMHO.
Thus why the market is up today. Besides oil being down. But with oil down, gasoline goes down and puts money in the pockets of the consumers to purchase and have a Merry Christmas. This is a very good positive for Retail. In some parts of the country gas is below $2 per gallon, who'd of thunk that we could it this level again. This is also very good for the economy as a whole. Other products that use oil like the plastic's industry and fabric industry. This should improve their costs, actually I might argue improve all industries cost as oil is the main product and benefits all of societies. If prices can stay down for then next year, this may even pull the economies of the West out of their troubles. However, it will hurt the socialistic countries that depend on their sales of oil for their economies..., so sad too bad.
Well that is your first mistake...., following cramer. No doubt cramer may be short with that call if he even made it. Looking at improving new home orders BZH will be just fine and could even double from here in 2015.
He have to remember that HERO will continue to go down as long as the price of oil goes down. We have to also keep in mind this coming earnings report from the company can not be good. In the short term I as a long term share holder, would not be too surprised if HERO got as low as .89 per share where I would buy the heck out of it by 4X what I own now. Keep in mind that if history proves anything at all, oil prices will rise. Once Hero drops below a buck I will start buying down to my target of .89.
orth, The bottom line is interest rates. It is true that the Fed will increase rates in 2015 but right now the assets for NLY are based on today's value and not so much on the future. Will the future effect their NAV, maybe but only if the assets it holds loose value. NLY has moved to more short term investments to absorb some (not all) the impact of rising rates. What I am saying today only deals with today's trade, not the future or long term.