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Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO) Message Board

trumpace 241 posts  |  Last Activity: May 24, 2015 4:40 PM Member since: Jul 13, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Massive Equity Dilution

    by coal_lover_222 May 24, 2015 2:27 PM
    trumpace trumpace May 24, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    The restructuring on its debt, most likely trying to take advantage of the low interest rates and to spread the due date out another 3-5 years is my guess. The stock at this price will not suffer any dilution, however that said there is a possibility that ACI could, and let me be clear, COULD, do a reverse split to keep in compliance with NYSE. That is a usual route for companies to take. Yes I know I will get posts thinking I am nuts, but with the reality that coal is under fire and it will take a few years and the right political structure with less regulation and expansion of shipping product, coal companies will have to be creative to survive. One thing management could do in these troubled times is reduce their pay a bit or at the least 50%, anything will help from them. We will see more layoffs as it has just began to take hold. With the Obama administration against union jobs right now in coal country, this pressure will remain for at least the next two years. I expect we will see worse results than the activity ACI is undertaking from some other coal companies including BK. But ACI has made it clear that BK is not in its cards..., at least for now. The book value is decreasing though and with any restructuring of the debt at lower interest rates, their will be a savings there to that extent. For now just tighten the belt and ride out the attack on coal that is happening, plus the double hit that lower Nat gas prices have added to coals woes. I added more to my position Friday to ACI and with any positive move in coal believe ACI should survive this test. But it will take real good management to bring us through this troubled times..., this will be a true test to whether ACI has the right management team in place looking out for its share holders.

  • Reply to

    NM vs SB

    by bfjoll9000 May 20, 2015 11:26 AM
    trumpace trumpace May 22, 2015 8:32 AM Flag

    New to this stock, bought Wednesday and again Thursday, also own SBLK. I agree on buying a basket of shippers. But when the World economies get back on track, they will do fine. NM looks to be conservative and is managing its way through this down turn in the daily rates. Lower fuel cost is helping too. I was surprised that with the beat in earnings the pps went down but am in for the long term here. I do think the end is near to this down turn in the shipping companies and think do to the continued consolidation it could get very interesting. I think the shippers learned a lesson on over capacity and this too will make them stronger in the next cycle of boom years. But that said it still could be at least two years from here before we see any real improvements in this industry world wide. But that too is why we should consider buying into the industry now. As long term share holders, the opportunity to buy low IMHO is now. Patients is the key. Besides it is nice to get what appears to be a secured dividend while waiting for the turn in the industry around.

  • Reply to

    A LOSS A 1% DECREASE IN REVENUE

    by trumpace May 20, 2015 8:25 AM
    trumpace trumpace May 20, 2015 8:50 AM Flag

    I have stop orders in and expect to be out within the first half hour today. this thing could drop like a rock with this wet seal event but we know Cannell must be pleased with this new team. One thing for sure the volume will be very high today. I am hoping to get $5 but who knows. I had my reservations on this team and they are proving to be true, unfortunately. But for me it is time to take the money I can get and run. I have no faith in this team since they could not even get the revenue number that is considered low hanging fruit considering the 1.4M customers. So sad, so very sad. I will from time to time check on the board to see what many of my friends here are up to and wish each of you well in your investing and life. Good luck to all of you.

  • 4 cent loss and 1.2M less in sales. Well the time has come to say good bye to evine. We will be down big time today. It is apparent that this team will lead this company down since it could not even meet the prior year revenue number for the Q. How sad is that and with an up coming investor event. It should be interesting to see if they cancel this event now. But for me I will pick my exit point and say good bye.

  • Reply to

    New ads on the yahoo

    by trumpace May 19, 2015 9:41 AM
    trumpace trumpace May 19, 2015 5:41 PM Flag

    I think they can do 169M but would also like a penny beat or .4. Even this is a low number IMHO from all the talk they have done promoting themselves as the difference in bringing share holder value. But if they can show some improvement to the book value I would be happy for now.

    What I don't want to see is a total miss and a cancelation of the investor day and then announcement of an equity offering at $4.50-$5 per share..., that is the worse case scenario. I'd like to see them hold off on the offering until the pps gets to at least $8 and then maybe discount the offering to $7.50. It's just that right now is the wrong time for an offering as I like to see this Team get the pps a bit stronger with increased volume and then lay out in detail why they need this funding and why they are failing to grow organically, adding share holder value vs diluting share holder value. But that may be a lot to ask for.

  • Reply to

    New ads on the yahoo

    by trumpace May 19, 2015 9:41 AM
    trumpace trumpace May 19, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Well volume was low and the sell off slow means to me that nothing got out about the earnings by the close. Usually when this happens it means there is a possibility of a beat in earnings, we will see tomorrow before the open..., I am nervous though. Can MB pull a rabbit out of his hat? Batter up! Ball one..., Strike one..., Ball two..., Strike two..., Ball three, full count and the pitch is on its way................................................................................

  • page for wayfair and tumble (I think I have that right). So some e-commerce retailers are taking the lead by ZU to prompt buyers to their site by placing ads. Evine however..., no.

    If the trend holds and because of the quiet period, we should be up today on low volume.

    What will really be interesting is the last half hour of trading today if there is any leaking of the earnings report for tomorrow to the well connected investors, for which I am not one of those. But we may get some type of indicator to what can be coming for tomorrow. Lets hope the three legs of the stool are good (EBIDTA, Revenue and Profit) and that we are not sitting in the stool. :-)

  • Reply to

    These next two weeks

    by trumpace May 18, 2015 9:09 AM
    trumpace trumpace May 18, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    We will see, this new team does things we would not think are right to do at times (Evine vs. ShopHQ). I would think, because of earnings that GE would not be selling in the quiet period right now, so we could see the pps advance back up to the mid $6's until they start up again. If not then earnings may only be in line with estimates, which would be very disappointing to the investor community one would think.

  • Reply to

    Next week over 60 cents

    by profit_rocket_prophet May 15, 2015 5:16 PM
    trumpace trumpace May 18, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    oops! it is just an estimated time for earnings June 1 too June 11. We can not even get a date of earnings from DJ.

    At a time when clean energy has the exact person as President of the U.S. Obama, CPST can not get legs and succeed. A true failure of DJ but most on this board anyway, believe this guy to be the one to profitability. I mean how sad is that. DJ has all those stock options we gave him..., but in due time they too will be worth the paper they are written on, if they are not already.

  • Reply to

    Next week over 60 cents

    by profit_rocket_prophet May 15, 2015 5:16 PM
    trumpace trumpace May 18, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    So it is next week and we will now see it drop below 50 cents. profit_rocket, what on earth makes you think CPST will be .60? With the CFO leaving, that is never a good sign. I have been in this company for years and will wait to see the earnings report June 1st but that just may be the time to sell at a loss. One thing for sure DJ has brought this company too its knees , but one cares it seems. Hope is all we have and that could come to an end June 1st.

  • Will be a telling cycle of where this company will go. Watch the pps if it starts to drop below $5.50 then things are not going to be good. But if we start today and move consistently up before the earnings are announced then it could be considered a positive sign that earnings will be good and that could be the catalysts going into the investor day event. The over hang is the equity offering and for now that and the GE selling is what is holding down the pps. Share holders do not like the ladder part for sure but management feels it is necessary because they are failing to accomplish their plan without it. Institutions are not willing to step up to the table because of this threat of the equity offering because they can get the shares at cheaper prices once the company sets the price at its discount so why buy it now. We see this in the volume. But I expect the management will announce the equity offering along with the earnings in a couple of days. All JMHO.

  • Reply to

    cannell capital

    by joy10511 May 16, 2015 11:37 PM
    trumpace trumpace May 18, 2015 8:51 AM Flag

    Cannell is a shorter of sorts. I have been involved in situations where Carlos has been a player. If he sees the opportunity he will start the process. But once he has the power and I would think with around 15% it is getting very close. If this CEO is successful in getting the company on track, that is when we could see a move. I for one would welcome any activist like a Cannell to shake things up a bit. Cannell could be out there looking for a team to take control of the company through a proxy battle, I don't know. But if he is, then it could get interesting. I am a bit surprised that with the amount of shares he has that he hasn't demanded any board seats. But if and when he does IMHO that is when it starts.

  • Reply to

    Stock Re-Purchase

    by hsfan44 May 16, 2015 11:44 PM
    trumpace trumpace May 17, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    I think this going to be part of the equity offering. Unfortunately it is a bad idea to issue stock at a discount and buy stock at an agreed upon price higher than that you get from the discounted stock sale. I think the term is green back or something like that which back in the 70's and 80's was done time and time again. However, this is a way they can get around the rules its lenders impose on them one would think. Still in the end it will hurt the current share holders.

  • opportunity for smart money to buy more shares. We have three more months of this IMHO. The second half is what I am waiting for, when the announce some of these new products they are working on an spending a lot of R&D money on.

  • Reply to

    Getting Tired

    by hsfan44 May 14, 2015 4:37 PM
    trumpace trumpace May 15, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    I tend to agree. One would think that if ZU can achieve what they did in such a short time frame, why is it that evine/Value Vision struggles to have at best single digit gains and almost no profit? Then to continue to issue shares to run the operations or award management with options. One has to begin to question whether evine will ever mount to anything at all. I know I am. Q2 is generally a difficult quarter, but Q1 has been pretty good. But I am nervous about this team's success and if the volume is any proof, so are a lot of investors. The fact that GE holds down the pps with its sells, while interest in the stock wanes because of this and the upcoming dilution is very troubling for long term share holders to stomach. I do not understand how we can continue to award options to this team with no real performance, yet we do. We have been given promises by this team and the Clinton Group, only to see the Clinton group get reimbursed and then divest itself from the company for the most part. Management continues to fail at going after the low hanging fruit and then buys a failed company and changes the name and logo of our company with no notice to the share holders that this was an intent..., doesn't pass the smell test. At this point I am not sure MB wants success at this point because of the actions he has taken, thus why I am considering stepping aside. The next week or two will cause me to make a decision. With the Investor day (by invitation) and the earnings report, it may be an easy decision to make. I do hope MB can deliver on both these things..., but I am having many doubts he wants or can.

  • Reply to

    Getting Tired

    by hsfan44 May 14, 2015 4:37 PM
    trumpace trumpace May 15, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    Within the next two weeks we should have a clear understanding of who really cares for evine, we know GE has made its decision but now we will see if MB has any influence on Wallstreet. As a very concerned share holder about the new managements ability to create share holder value as much as their own personal gains, I for one am very apprehensive of this team and continue to question, if it is worth it to stay in this stock, especially with the upcoming dilution coming.

  • Reply to

    Brean Reits

    by tarzanevine May 14, 2015 4:34 PM
    trumpace trumpace May 14, 2015 10:07 PM Flag

    We should be so lucky.

  • Reply to

    Dividend distribution

    by form1_fan May 14, 2015 9:26 AM
    trumpace trumpace May 14, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    jeb, you could be right, it depends on China and don't forget if they announce one of those new top tier products before after July, that could factor in the Q3 numbers as production and inventory for the holiday season could play a role.

    Congrad's to those investors who did picked up cheap shares from the dumb money pre-market sellers this morning.

  • Reply to

    Dividend distribution

    by form1_fan May 14, 2015 9:26 AM
    trumpace trumpace May 14, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    I might add that they most likely place those funds in a reserve account at the end of the year, or at least most of it, based on its policy. form1_fan, this company has a very conservative CEO and a very conservative approach to its finances. It is well run when you consider the industry they are in and the main market China they have to deal with. As time allows them to expand further and lessen the China impact, HIMX will shine IMHO. The business isn't "deteriorating" as you indicate above as much as it is subject to the markets volatility that it serves i.e. China, not to mention the constraints it is under in it R&D confidential agreements with its top tier customers. A few of these will come to be known in the second half IMHO.

    I think today is a good example as to why you do not trade in the pre-market.

  • Reply to

    HIMX met the numbers

    by trumpace May 14, 2015 7:36 AM
    trumpace trumpace May 14, 2015 8:00 AM Flag

    jeb I actually hope you are right and we see traders (not investors) push the price down. I always like dumb money sellers to panic and give me shares at lower prices (I like stupidity). HIMX is setting itself up for the second half of the year and when they achieve that point with new announcement and product sales during the holiday season, that will push through to the 2016 QOQ, YOY results.

HERO
0.7036-0.0772(-9.89%)May 22 4:00 PMEDT