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SIGA Technologies, Inc. Message Board

truont2 33 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 10, 2014 1:03 PM Member since: May 28, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Short Interest now up to 6,000,000 shares...

    by superforce_57 Jun 26, 2014 10:21 AM
    truont2 truont2 Jun 26, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Look at the SPRING results published in several journals. The STEP 12 week results are going to be released very soon as well. AMPIO accidentally stumbled on a theurapeutic that activates healing pathways and the FDA is very interested. If STEP results show any type of regeneration it will be a blockbuster. Indications for other parts of the body will follow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    the crazy price action yesterday in a nutshell

    by waiting4kerx Jun 28, 2014 10:12 AM
    truont2 truont2 Jun 28, 2014 6:56 PM Flag

    I work at retail HQ and did a small test. Did the "did you hear an insulin inhaler" was approved by the FDA yesterday and the response was amazing. It's the diabetic "EpiPen," and will be a part of most younger diabetics lifestyles. Take a puff and eat...it's that easy. Or, going out tonight with friends for dinner? Bring afrezza. Its pharmacokinetics/dynamics will make it a winner for sure

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    COLTON

    by shortstompen Jun 29, 2014 3:13 AM
    truont2 truont2 Jun 29, 2014 5:05 AM Flag

    Keep shorting Colton. Tell all your buddies to short as well. I want a bear raid on Monday so I can get another 20% cushion.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • truont2 truont2 Jun 29, 2014 5:32 AM Flag

    The market is going to shift from prandial needle to prandial inhaler. Is there a prandial inhaler competitor to Afrezza yet? Nope...so enjoy the show. This is akin to a Tesla moment in share prices. You could also do a case study of Exubera being a first to market failure. Afrezza would have studied all the ins and outs of why Exubera failed and will become the dominant second to market. This is disruptive technology and I love the denial. Just like everyone not seeing a place for a personal computer or a smartphone...and like all early deniers they will all eventually become late adopters. These are exciting times in the diabetic market.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Us Longs are SOOOOOOO stupid

    by str417lasd Jun 28, 2014 11:36 PM
    truont2 truont2 Jun 29, 2014 5:45 AM Flag

    Fundamentals haven't changed for MNKD. Economic moat: insulin inhaler delivery/technosphere and rapid pharmokinetics/dynamics, soon pediatric market and pain relief. Next event: partnership or buyout. From the recent calls I suspect a licensing deal for particular countries to Afrezza with large upfront payments and double digit royalties. But, if the negotiations are not in the bidders favour they will try to outright buy MNKD. MNKD understandably wants to retain all rights to technosphere so they can begin their pain relief strategy. I'll speculate a little and say MNKD could look into vaccines and military applications which desperately need to move out of needles.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • truont2 truont2 Jun 29, 2014 5:49 AM Flag

    Cite Exubera as a first to market failure. We all know the statistics of success for the 2nd product that comes to market...and it is usually largest market penetration and growth. Your arguments are actually in favour of Afrezza because Afrezza will have studied Exubra extensively to avoid the same results.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • truont2 truont2 Jun 29, 2014 5:55 AM Flag

    Read some of the recent conference transcripts. Management says "easily a blockbuster." The inhaler itself is cheap and the technosphere application is huge. $10-$11 is incredibly cheap. I see it going to $30-40 on insulin alone. Future: Think of rapid pain relief or vaccines. Think of a long acting existing drug that has the correct moiety for technosphere and you can add another $10-20.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • truont2 truont2 Jun 29, 2014 6:05 AM Flag

    Good selling features: rapid effect, shelf-stable, ease of use, small and convenient, can be effectively combined with basal, can be used in early stages to protect pancreas function, little to no weight gain

    Bad selling features: easy to lose, inhaler and cartridges are cheap to make and will litter landfills, but MNKD can have a sustainability plan in place to recycle one day. need to increase units for the ones that really really need it (3 greens might not be enough for some).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Over the last year this stock:

    by ri66 Jun 27, 2014 2:02 PM
    truont2 truont2 Jun 30, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    Accidental discovery prompted FDA to guide them on additional indications. Management and FDA are working together for a hyaluronic acid alternative.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • truont2 truont2 Jul 23, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    CEO owns 35%-40% of outstanding shares and if you look into his recent interviews he states clearly that he does not like dilution. This company is low key and operates almost like a private company.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nymox is a once

    by dupuismich Aug 6, 2014 11:43 AM
    truont2 truont2 Aug 6, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    Some deductive reasoning...Averback would not have placed a private sale if trial results are bad b/c that would be based on material information which was not disclosed to shareholders. This placement therefore would have needed to be preplanned without the knowledge of when trial data will be released good or bad. Was the placement tied to prior release of data? Who knows...all I interpret from this placement is that there is a willing and trusted buyer who paid $5-5.72. There's an excellent history so far in clinical trials that show that this thing works and is vetted by several key thinkers including Recordati. Spend some time estimating the market for BPH and repeat injections. Have some patience and average down.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • truont2 truont2 Aug 6, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    This would have been disclosed to General Counsel per Nymox Code of Ethics and preplanned since it cannot be based on material information. Cheer up, tomorrow's reaction is a great opportunity to buy some more.

  • Reply to

    Nymox is a once

    by dupuismich Aug 6, 2014 11:43 AM
    truont2 truont2 Aug 6, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    Who do you think is the buyer(s)? That's a nice piece of his stake...and from what I've seen and read he is not quick to release information or control of his company.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Read the Sedar filing...

    by oct1929p Aug 6, 2014 11:59 PM
    truont2 truont2 Aug 7, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    Institutional buying? For me the second I saw CPPIB hold a stake I knew this company was worth something. It's so undervalued for a company going through phase III and holding a potential BPH standard of care treatment. Safety for this drug is impressive...everyone who knows about this company is waiting eagerly for phase 3 to be released- reconfirming earlier results.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    THE KNWON SIMPLE VALUE OF AMPION

    by brotheroday88 Aug 14, 2014 12:12 PM
    truont2 truont2 Aug 14, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    I look at it from an acquirer's point of view. Would I put an offer in before or after STEP? The STEP results will solidify if this is going to be first line minus regeneration results. The company has manufacturing ready so it's a matter of acquiring this company before it starts working on other applicaton sites. Then there is optina, which has absolutely destroyed my investment thesis for other DMA companies. We're looking at a pill that has equivalent if not better results than implants. These two products are moving very quickly through regulatory pathways which is exciting!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    If the results are good, then ...

    by wolfmanran Aug 21, 2014 8:51 AM
    truont2 truont2 Aug 21, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    The company would not know yet if this has affected their study. Dissecting their wording I read that low temperature may affect efficacy and that is where the market will react. At

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    If the results are good, then ...

    by wolfmanran Aug 21, 2014 8:51 AM
    truont2 truont2 Aug 21, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    less 0 C what happens to the drug? When the drug is returned to 15 C, what's the remaining active yield? Is it 60-90? If so, you can trend the results and build off of STEP to see what predicted would be. Not a total disaster considering we know what the multiple injections studies reductions are. Physicians will only be looking to the multiple injections for their patients. AMPE already stated that the FDA is willing to examine the STEP study (I suspect they looked at stability data) and were still fine with the trial. I expect STEP to be slightly lower than SPRING results but with the caveat of temperature affecting the % of actives given to patients.

  • truont2 truont2 Aug 21, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    The company would not know yet if this has affected their study. Dissecting their wording I read that low temperature may affect efficacy and that is where the market will react. At less 0 C what happens to the drug? When the drug is returned to 15 C, what's the remaining active yield? Is it 60-90? If so, you can trend the results and build off of STEP to see what predicted would be. Not a total disaster considering we know what the multiple injections studies reductions are. Physicians will only be looking to the multiple injections for their patients. AMPE already stated that the FDA is willing to examine the STEP study (I suspect they looked at stability data) and were still fine with the trial. I expect STEP to be slightly lower than SPRING results but with the caveat of temperature affecting the % of actives given to patients.

  • truont2 truont2 Aug 21, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    There's a lot of diketopiperazine compounds out there that are stored below 0 C. My slight worry is for the amino acid side chains which may be affected...but to what extent? The more I read into the chemistry and tease out stability I feel comfortable with the imminent STEP results. True, protocol was not followed during transport but it was injected at greater than 15 C. AMPE can do some quick tests to determine the yield of ampion after several freeze/thaws. I wonder if they disclosed this to the FDA which convinced them to accept STEP as still supporting the BLA. If anything, this gives more weight to the multiple injection studies and less reliance on STEP which might work in their favour.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    stability in diketopiperazines - etc...

    by billwilliams836 Aug 21, 2014 5:00 PM
    truont2 truont2 Aug 21, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    I had said earlier in the day that this cyclic group can survive a freeze/thaw situation. I'm not entirely sure about the amino groups but the FDA is willing to accept this study as supporting data for the BLA which is a big win. AMPE therefore must have presented stability data and basically said that their efficacy might be affected because of lower active yield. Can they isolate sites or patients that were affected by the temperature difference and compare both situations? We'll hear more when they release topline and explain with and without partitioning. This is unfortunate but at the same time AMPE is extremely lucky in that they have multi-injection studies running that are yielding 86% improvement. I would have preferred it if AMPE had talked to the FDA, ran their analysis and separated data and then presented topline. But no...they took the amateur route and fed incomplete news to investors causing a 25% drop.

SIGA
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