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Entravision Communications Corporation Message Board

truth.monger 172 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 8, 2014 12:52 PM Member since: Nov 24, 2008
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  • truth.monger by truth.monger Jul 8, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    Well I'm glad there was a bump and hopefully some of you got out in time. Dan even had a chance to break even!

    But reality is what it is. As in 2010, EVC's peak operating activity is almost behind us. Their debt has grown but their relevance has diminished as competitors have multiplied. Another small unprofitable acquisition, not any game changers and apparently there never will be a game changer for EVC. Why should there be? The CEO is pulling 1 million base plus bonus & free stock.

    As was previously stated Aereo was & is a non-issue.

    I apologize for not being around to offset Dan's hype. As always with this sort of volatile stock your time frame matters. You can gamble for a bump if that's your game. But given the exorbitant valuation and extensive headwinds a thoughtful educated longer term view will lead one to avoid EVC.

  • Reply to

    New to Board

    by matts4 Jun 8, 2014 5:31 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 13, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    $4.20 at least by 2015.

    Short term, I don't play the daily gyrations.

    Ask Golf, he has been spot on calling hour by hour moves.

  • Reply to

    Dan's EVC basis probably down to $5.40

    by truth.monger Jun 13, 2014 12:31 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 13, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    I believe EVC is in trouble. They have too much debt and a very very high enterprise value.

    They have an explosion of competition both from a Latino content perspective and from a technology perspective. Their signal "broadcast" is nearly irrelevant in 2014. They can't get their digital strategy together - as is obvious from their 90's looking TV websites and horrible pregnancy site purchase, and burying their digital losses in radio costs financial reporting. They have expressed no desire to sell out. They have very limited capacity to acquire (and have done so poorly in the past - LA radio stations). The management is unchecked due to their massive voting power from a small ownership interest in a special class of shares (CEO base pay boosted to $1M). They have over 80 million shares and approved dilution of 10M more direct to management & directors (which sells those shares). They are heading into an very poor year in the cycle during which their interest rate will spike (contractually) for the remainder of the bank deal. They have an uneasy relationship with Univision including content contracts that need to be renewed far in advance of debt expiration. Univision owns a minority EVC position and has veto power over ANY deal that EVC might strike with an acquirer.

    Dan, I am unsure why you bought this at $6+ when management & directors have been selling. I understand there is some short term "excitement" over world cup and elections, but high expectations for the current quarters are already baked in. Soon all eyes turn to 2015 and that just isn't pretty. Its 2010 all over again.

  • truth.monger truth.monger Jun 13, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    Not true. And don't be insulting our intelligence. We all know that cable channel line-ups change all the time. And we all know that in this merger comcast will have to make compromises and one of the most likely is a deal with Univision to increase Univision's pay TV viewers - which given the dialogue is likely well underway.

  • With his distortion machine on full blast -- I'm sure Dan's EVC basis has dropped to the $5.40 range over the past few days.

    A slight bump and he'll be in the green on his dumb $6.10 buys!

    Come later in the year as 2015 doldrums approach and EVC looks horrible, he'll be telling us how badly run it is, management piggy bank, etc. That's the trouble with "traders".

  • truth.monger truth.monger Jun 13, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    Yup, with that kind of valuation Univision is pulling out all the stops to pull revenue from the low to no value-add "EVC like" broadcasters. I is good to see confirmation of the that strategy which is unfolding with the likes of Univision Desportes gaining massive pay TV audience and Univision's recent comments about bypassing broadcasters entirely.

  • Reply to

    Senators

    by daninfw04 Jun 13, 2014 9:46 AM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 13, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Dan, obviously grandfathering JSA's does nothing for EVC and has minimal impact on the broadcast industry. What the industry needs to help bring back the irrational consolidation fever and valuations of early 2014 is the ability to create new JSA's as well as the return of an FCC that doesn't object to broadcast consolidation and broadcaster negotiating "power" as the the current FCC clearly does.

    And as the the broadcast analysts have pointed out the Aereo decision downside is quite significant while the upside is already baked in to current broadcast valuations.

  • Although there is only a .001% chance Aereo wins, some analysts are saying there would be 20%+ broadcast valuation downside the day of the announcement of an Aereo win. Decision could come any day now.

    I don't think its relevant, given that Aereo will lose, but the analysts do indicate any upside is far less than the downside because a very high probability of a broadcast win is baked in to current valuations.

  • truth.monger truth.monger Jun 12, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    Oh great! Another "trader".

    At least you were right, I'll give you that - credit where credit is due.

  • Reply to

    Political

    by daninfw04 Jun 11, 2014 1:06 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 12, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    I know it so cool how you buy at $6.10+ and a month later your cost basis falls & falls almost mirroring the decline in your investment.

    Its just so cool! You should patent it - so you alone can never lose. Maybe you'll share it with your good friend Truth?

  • Reply to

    Political

    by daninfw04 Jun 11, 2014 1:06 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 12, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    Sure you did! LOL

  • Reply to

    Political

    by daninfw04 Jun 11, 2014 1:06 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 11, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Dan that's great! You got a 30 cent/share dividend.

    You must be Walter's good buddy? How do the rest of us get 10X the tiny dividend?

  • Reply to

    Political

    by daninfw04 Jun 11, 2014 1:06 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 11, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    Starting to move? EVC is up 500% in 18 months. That's a BIG move!

  • Reply to

    How Do You Sleep?

    by daninfw04 Jun 10, 2014 3:35 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 10, 2014 9:11 PM Flag

    Ok I'll join you Dan! Just for the moment. To paraphrase you....

    Yea! Yea! Yea! Buy, buy, buy!

    A co-founder and current director just dumped half a million shares @ $5!!

    All the top EVC executives are morons and using EVC as a piggy bank! And they can never be voted out because their tiny ownership of a special class of shares gives them overwhelming majority voting control of EVC! That's why the CEO'S base pay was raised 100% to $1 Million (plus his diluting share grants & options).

    If you properly consider the CEO, CFO, and COO are complete morons you should ignore their insider sales and buy buy buy this company run by morons!

  • Reply to

    Incredibly Overvalued as 2015 approaches

    by truth.monger Jun 10, 2014 1:38 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 10, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Today EVC's valuation is about 4x 2013 EPS

    The same multiple applied to 2015 EPS would value EVC back in $1 range.

    If the valuation multiple improved by more than 100% to say 10x EPS we would be looking at $3 valuation in 2015.

  • Reply to

    How Do You Sleep?

    by daninfw04 Jun 10, 2014 3:35 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 10, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    Dan, I'm the one who suggested (for day traders like you) buy in $4's and sell mid $5's.

    I believe the record shows you went all crazy buying at $6+ (you picked up none at $4) and you are crazily posting insanity about insider sales being a positive factor and flailing to break even....

  • The spectacular returns EVC has seen over the last 18 months are at risk of being erased.

    It is much the same as what happened 2010, except this time there is far more competition in the Latino market so the decline could be far worse.

  • Reply to

    The Truth

    by daninfw04 Jun 9, 2014 2:32 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 10, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    My casino addicted neighbor never crows about her losses either. Always wins. Even when we know better.

    I'm starting to feel bad. I'm imagining you are a chain smoker walking to the corner gas station for smokes but otherwise sitting in front of your screen blowing your disability check month after month.

  • Reply to

    Would Like to Ask A Favor

    by daninfw04 Jun 9, 2014 1:47 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 10, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Dan, your distortion machine is in overdrive!

    Now (in your mind) EVC has a Dallas TV station! Awesome.

    Why don't you wish one up for them in Houston, San Antonio, and LA!! But don't add any debt/dilution in the process! With those cities EVC might break $7. At least their spectrum would be worth something in those cities!!

  • Reply to

    EVC is easily worth $8

    by value_invstr Jun 10, 2014 8:49 AM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jun 10, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    It has traded between $4 to $7 recently.
    Or one might say $1 to $7 with a slightly longer horizon.

    $7 triggered massive insider selling.

EVC
6.09+0.12(+2.01%)Jul 9 4:00 PMEDT

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