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Entravision Communications Corporation Message Board

truth.monger 82 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 3:11 PM Member since: Nov 24, 2008
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  • Very interesting, but a typical kneejerk EVC move. There is no meaningful insider buying going on (after very extensive insider selling). So although the executives are not willing to risk their own money (or even hold on to the EVC shares they are granted) they are willing to expend our (EVC) cash and increase EVC's net leverage even further to buy back a minimal 2% of the shares outstanding (which the will grant to themselves anyway).

    Given the excessive leverage EVC is already buried under and the poor operational prospects of 2015 and the very high enterprise valuation EVC currently sports --- objectively speaking, EVC should be issuing equity and cutting its debt.

    Yes, you'll see a bump on this move - but it is unfortunately shortsighted and backwards so I bet many will get beaten up by some more wild swings to come....

    It is more support for Dan's often repeated phrase - "EVC executives are idiots and treat EVC like a piggy bank!"

  • Reply to

    Enterprise Value is the key

    by truth.monger Aug 12, 2014 2:55 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Aug 12, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    Dan, you don't really have much credibility given your track record. I'm sure we would all appreciate it if you could at least keep your commentary civilized.

    As to your main assumption - It would appear that you are ignoring massive historical precedence in your belief that a lower valuation is not possible. For much of the past 5 years EVC has traded in the $1 range. EVC has even at times been valued below 20 cents a share. Why? Because EVC has massive debt, poor financial performance and uncertain prospects.

    Current headwinds:
    1) EVC has even more debt than they did during the darkest days when its was well below $1
    2) The future of old world "broadcast" & radio becomes dimmer every day
    3) EVC interest expense is set to start increasing once again (contractually)
    4) Analyst want EVC to extend Univision contract and EVC can not
    5) EVC has wasted money on more bad acquisitions
    6) EVC still can not be bought (univision veto)
    7) EVC CEO increased his pay by 100%, and can not be replaced
    8) CFO & COO sold majority of their insider positions
    9) Directors sold significant portions
    10) Everything good is behind EVC (refinance, World Cup)
    11) Everything bad is ahead (2015, terrible EPS decline, increasing interest)
    12) Univision has said they want to bypass broadcast entirely (aereo)
    13) Univision has very successfully bypassed broadcast (Univision desportes - world cup)
    14) Local new audience continues to fall year after year
    15) Over the air reception continues to fall to near zero. Pay tv continues increases.
    16) FCC prohibition on re-transmission banding in negotiations
    17) Univision intends to (and should) retain most retransmission revenue in next negotiation

  • truth.monger by truth.monger Aug 12, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    Many of you seem astounded that the valuation has fallen from $7+ to near $4.

    You might be able to learn from the situation if you consider how massively leveraged EVC is.

    In other words the enterprise value of EVC has taken a relatively small hit thus far in the decline -- EVC is still valued at well over $700 million dollars (Debt+Equity). Given the industry sector's deterioration, EVC specific insider sales and mismanagement, and the fact that we are about to enter the worst part of the cycle for media (2015) there is no way that EVC is worth $700 million.

    Could EVC even garner $500 million in a sale given the uncertainty of the univision contract negotiation? I don't think so.

    So an Enterprise value of $500 million (which is optimistic) would indicate the share price should fall another $2-$3 to reach a reasonable EVC enterprise valuation.

    EVC's currently very high enterprise value, many business risks, and poor financial outlook are why the shares are still very much overvalued.

  • Every time Dan is 100% absolutely wrong he goes on sabbatical. What is up with that?

    No more robust Dan posts claiming to have bought 50K more shares every 5 minutes? How will we live without it?

    No worries! Soon he'll be back claiming his EVC basis is $2/share and he is making a fortune, LOL...

    Thanks for the vacation Dan! Defending the masses from your nonsense is hard work!

  • Reply to

    Linked In

    by truth.monger Jul 15, 2014 5:17 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Aug 8, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    Norbert what are you doing with our HQSM assets - Please reply??

  • Reply to

    Interesting

    by contra_guy Aug 7, 2014 5:57 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Aug 8, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    So true! If one really charts Dan's calls, 99% of the time he has lost money. The number don't lie. Like EVC - he became violently abusive towards me because I was negative about the prospects. I was right, but he will never admit it, or how much money he actually lost.

    But then Dan has developed one heck of a Steve Jobs like "Distortion Field". That in itself is a worthy skill that attracts a number of mindless followers and boosts his ego at hugely bad call, massive loss times like this one with EVC....

  • Reply to

    Dan, your thoughts?

    by wow1smallworld Aug 7, 2014 12:44 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Aug 7, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    Give Dan a few minutes. He has a lot of conniving statements to develop given the devastating situation he has driven his followers into...

    Its quite a challenge he has - How to spin this failure in a positive light?

    Well, at least EVC is still 50 cents above its recent lows, right? That's a positive, eh? - The enterprise value is still much too high! Plus anybody that bought around $4.25 is still green for the moment.

    And don't forget about those that bought at $.12 (as in 12 cents) years ago. They are still ok, for the moment, just not as well off as they were at $7+ when I and every insider rang the alarm bells and sold!!

  • Reply to

    Does EVC ever see even $5.50?

    by wow1smallworld Aug 7, 2014 11:33 AM
    truth.monger truth.monger Aug 7, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    Dan and others expected a massive EPS beat. They have been arguing that the analyst were idiots and misunderstood EVC and all the analysts were way to conservative in continually bringing down their EVC EPS estimates.

    But Dan was wrong. Instead of the "expected" 5-10 cent beat you got a miss. It turns out everything is the exact opposite of what Dan has been preaching -- the analysts are still way too optimistic.

    That hits valuation hard. And looking ahead to extreme declines in 2015 EPS there is no reason to think there will be a sustained valuation recovery any time soon.

  • Reply to

    Truth spoke the truth....

    by truth.monger Aug 6, 2014 7:19 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Aug 7, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Dan you are just making stuff up.

    This is cyclically like 2010-2011. The insider selling at the peak confirmed it.

    But it not all driven by the 4 year cyclic one time events. Now there are significant new competitors & technology that will eventually wipe out EVC'S antiquated business model.

    Univision alone can squash EVC like an ant in upcoming content negotiations.

  • truth.monger by truth.monger Aug 6, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    Dan, I am not going to gloat. I had some respect for you prior to your frequent attacks plummeting to baseless name calling worthy of a child. Maybe this predictable shortfall will open your mind to true discussion.

    The basic message you ignored? I, along with the CEO, CFO, COO, and directors indicated the dire situation by our selling at $7+

    EVC is done for a few years at the very least.

  • Reply to

    EVC is still 25% above the recent lows

    by truth.monger Aug 1, 2014 12:05 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Aug 4, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Remember Univision Desportes? Thats Univision's end-run that completely bypasses EVC and this year presented the world cup in much greater quality than EVC did?

    I know, you always forget about all the successful inroads being made by alternatives to EVC. But you can expect Univision Desportes to be up 1,000%+ given its World Cup success.

    None of this matters anyway. Why? Because EVC will never ever broadcast another World Cup. Its done. Rear view mirror. Contract bidding lost.

    And nothing gained was from 2014's coverage because EVC costs are way up and they otherwise wasted any positive results on more poor acquisitions. EVC will still be very excessively overburdened with debt which is not a good situation given the significant deterioration of EVC's operating statistics.

  • EVC is not doing too badly - EVC is still 25% above the recent low of $4.27. I'm sure management is surprised how well the valuation has held up after the CFO and COO sold the majority of their positions. The COO sold almost every share he had. The CFO sold half. Many directors sold as well. Interesting no?

    I agree Dan, You were smart to start buying at $6+. Just ride out the next couple of years and hope, as you say, "the "idiot executives who run EVC like a personal piggy bank" eventually hit a home run with their pregnancy website! They don't have anything else in the oven.

    If they can sell "hispanic prego" for $400 million we'll be debt free, finally!! Keep the hope alive!

  • Reply to

    As Predicted...

    by truth.monger Jul 31, 2014 12:36 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Aug 1, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    I agree Dan, You were smart to start buying at $6+. Just ride out the next couple of years and hope, as you say, "the "indiot executives who run EVC like a personal piggy bank" eventually hit a home run with their pregnancy website! They don't have anything else in the oven.

    If they can sell "hispanic prego" for $400 million we'll be debt free, finally!!

    Keep hope alive!

  • Reply to

    As Predicted...

    by truth.monger Jul 31, 2014 12:36 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jul 31, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    I've been negative since $7. So were the EVC executives & director that all sold at $7+

    EVC will see a return to very poor equity performance over the next year.

    I am not pandering to the nonsense arguments of manipulative day traders like Dan....

  • Reply to

    As Predicted...

    by truth.monger Jul 31, 2014 12:36 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jul 31, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Dan, are you serious? All your stocks are down 10%? That's not good...

    You should have listened when I suggested to sell at $7+ (when ALL of the insiders dumped shares).

  • truth.monger by truth.monger Jul 31, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    In spite of Dan's loud protests, reality has to set in for 2014 just as it did in 2010.

    EVC is staring into the abyss of 2015. EPS is way way down. Audience eroding. Technology encroaching.

    Dan can talk about World cup all he wants. But the fact is that event is behind us. And as with every previous special event there will be no debt reduction to show for it. EVC has already blown the cash on bad purchases, increased G&A, and doubled CEO pay.

    This time next year EVC will be much much lower. Will its see the typical 80% decline? I can't predict the extent, but the direction is clear....

  • truth.monger by truth.monger Jul 15, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Norbert's linkedin profiles are shameful. He doesn't even mention HQSM. Erased from his wild imagination?

    Dear Norbert, when will you tell us what is going on?

    The last time you spoke to a reporter and you spoke of HQS - "It is as it was."

    It was $14/share.

    So what exactly is it now????

  • Reply to

    How many ID's does Dan have?

    by truth.monger Jul 11, 2014 4:47 PM
    truth.monger truth.monger Jul 15, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    Dan, I know you are frustrated and bitter, what with the performance EVC has put in for you.

    I have answered all your questions before. But I'll recap. I love EVC. I made a fortune from 40 cents to $7+, but when the executives & directors all sold it was time to go away. Plus this is 2014 - peak of the cycle. We all know what happened in 2010-2011.

    I'm not too happy with the CEO doubling his pay and the further dilution of shares being recently approve. After all the CEO, COO, CFO and directs just sell the shares they "earn". Good show of confidence there, eh?? :-)

    What else? The debt is huge and for the past many years of "great performance" and debt has only grown - with nothing to show for it. Digital is a disaster as is clear from their pregnancy site flop.

    EVC's interest rate is contractually set to increase in 2015. Never good.

    EVC has no response to competitive threats. Univision wants to bypass them -- like the home-run Univision Desportes pay tv/online/mobile distribution model for world cup. EVC Local news is irrelevant - ratings keep falling.

    What else does EVC do? Oh yea, radio. Way overpay for radio stations that have fewer and fewer listeners. We know Latinos love mobile & Pandora. Radio should have been spun off years ago. Oh well.

    So as the EVC doldrums of 2015 approach.... Well, good luck Dan...

    You can't say I didn't warn you at $7.30.

    And you can't say the executive selling didn't warn you either!

  • truth.monger by truth.monger Jul 11, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    Dan, I can't believe you are still pumping EVC at such a high price point! Granted, it is well below where you bought in, but still, you could have bought at $4.27 not long ago. Or .15 not long before that.

    Anyhow its almost over. The hype won't last long. Wold cup is over. Aereo was pebble's ripples (as I predicted). All the goodness will be behind us and EVC will be sitting with the same huge debt, same non-existent consolidation prospects. The only change will be that EVC is staring into the nothingness that is 2015. Well, nothing except operating declines and gains from new & established Latino competition. Maybe some new end runs by Univision - like the wildly successful Univision Desportes which simulcast the World Cup and drew away millions of would be EVC viewers.

    And of course fewer and fewer people receiving EVC's over the air signal. The contractually increasing interest rate. Lots of insider selling. And maybe more giant executive raises and stock grants! So exciting!!

    Good luck with that Dan!

  • truth.monger by truth.monger Jul 8, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    Well I'm glad there was a bump and hopefully some of you got out in time. Dan even had a chance to break even!

    But reality is what it is. As in 2010, EVC's peak operating activity is almost behind us. Their debt has grown but their relevance has diminished as competitors have multiplied. Another small unprofitable acquisition, not any game changers and apparently there never will be a game changer for EVC. Why should there be? The CEO is pulling 1 million base plus bonus & free stock.

    As was previously stated Aereo was & is a non-issue.

    I apologize for not being around to offset Dan's hype. As always with this sort of volatile stock your time frame matters. You can gamble for a bump if that's your game. But given the exorbitant valuation and extensive headwinds a thoughtful educated longer term view will lead one to avoid EVC.

EVC
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