That's either a typo or bad math? 600 calls for $5 each would be $300,000 not $3000.
How is that premise working out for you? Contrave market share 42+ % Belviq 28% in about a year less on the market. Plus EMA approved Contrave/Mysimbia and shot down Belviq. Hmmm. Think about it! ;)
I don't totally disagree with neo. As a long time shareholder/ trader of both names, I am well aware of both stories. I do like the arna pipeline but I also like the fact that OREX has an EMAapproval. What I do disagree with 2 flawed facts and 1 wrong conclusion. Facts: 1. The "cheap old uncle partner" is marketing Contrave heavily and spending at average to above average clips. 2. Contrave is thrashing Belviq, not "barely beating Belviq" as you claim. The Fact is that Contrave's most recent numbers are at over 42% market share of the US branded prescription obesity market where there are 4 players. Contrave, Belviq, Qysimia, Saxenda. Belviq is at 28% with declining sales. You will learn in the future that going from a twice a day product b.i.d. to a once a day product Qd means little to nothing. This is always been a way for pharma to extend patents slightly, not to make many gains in sales. I know you won't believe me but you will learn its true. I have work in this industry for almost 20 years on over 60 products while watching countless hundreds join the market and this almost always the case. Good luck to all longs in both companies. Can't we all just get along? ;)
No way. If someone knews something big money would do the opposite. If they knew news was going to be bad they would be pushing it up ahead to short it from a higher level, dropping it on retails head just before the news goes public. If they knew the news was going to be good, they would push it down ahead of the release to scoop up shares from spooked retail. In my opinion it is the latter. I've seen this movie before.
Whoopie! I knew right away when I read about submitting questions that you would get very excited kevin. You can type questions until your fingers bleed, but that does not mean any will be answered. I fear there will be a huge dung pile of stupid questions that include many topics that he will not be allowed to answer. We will be told what they can and want to tell us, no more no less. Matt is gonna need a D10 Cat dozer to push through all the junk.
It's called throwing the baby out with the bath water. All the index fund trading means there are more opportunities for stock pickers, imo. This one and other stocks like it are being treated like their profits are based on the price of oil, which is not the case.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You are mostly correct. Takeda reps that carry Contrave also carry Uloric and Colcrys or they carry a family of diabetes products...Nesina, Kazano and Oseni. The other factor is that almost all the reps that carry 3 or 4 products are not weighted 1 to 1. 70% Contrave 30% Gout family (Uloric and Colcrys combined) or Contrave 70% Nesina family 30%..Manyreps are 60%Contrave 40% other drugs. There is a smaller percentage of the reps with lower Contrave weightings of Contrave.
I was just looking at that today. Max pain for Jan. opex looked to be 3.00 imo. 3.00 or 3.50 either way it seems significant and not too far off, imo. Let's face it, me and my fellow longs are looking for more but a 50% move from here would be nice in less than 3 months.
That is an impressive refill rate. Most pharma products would kill for a refill rate like that. Refills are the issue with a lot of products.
Yes it does user. The more a product is utilized, the more incentive an insurer has to negotiate bulk pricing. There comes a point where it makes sense for an insurer to offer formulary coverage / a better tier for a volume discount. Its standard practice once a product reaches critical mass. They end up getting so many prior authorization requests that the time and man power it takes to say no to them all is more costly than its worth. Especially when the product makes sense.
That would be 99,900 prior authorizations needed. Most of which would be switched to the authorized alternative product on formulary, this is the path of least resistance for busy offices that are sick of PA's that go nowhere. Maybe out of all those scripts 25,000 PA's would be done by offices. All but 1-3% with very generous employer/ and a few union paid open formularies would be denied and switched to whatever is on formulary.
Insurance coverage will have to improve before any real amount of advertising is done, especially expensive TV ads. Coverage will begin to slowly improve in 2016 opening the door for advertising that could actually get some R.O.i. Regretfully that is the way it really is. That is our healthcare system at work. PBM's and insurers "containing costs" and making profits for themselves and their shareholders. It's out of control, these days the insurance rep calls the shots not the Doctor. Its a big problem for everyone.
Sentiment: Strong Buy