Good news out of Hawaii today. RGSE was already planning to write off a bunch of Sunetric, but they may change their tune now when they release their official earnings report.
You were right.. lucky maybe but right. So the good news on the offering is it only adds 10 to 15% to the outstanding shares... no bad. And this should allow them to work through some backlog, bridge the gap to financing (I'm sure terms weren't favorable, so this is a better options) and work their way back over a buck. volatility isn't over... the volume and increase put in on radar - we should see some swings near term.
Minor dilution anyway. Bridging the gap.
You should have shorted at $5.50. Not sure I would be shorting too heavily right here as momentum has shifted and the target is over a buck near term. Keep in mind, one piece of news in regard to financing or expanded partnership and you'll be contributing to a very steep run up. Play the volatility - but this is no longer a short and hold..
These spikes at the close are good news. If you have been watching this for a while, you'll know someone was artificially causing a drop at the close before and keeping the downtrend in tact. This reversal and upward pressure into the close is excellent news. You can bet there is some money behind this now that has every intent of getting this back over a buck.. then bring on the financing news or expansion of the partnership and we are off to the races again.
By the way, if you are keeping track.. SCTY Q4 Revenue $72 million, RGSE $18 million. SCTY Q4 Net Loss $141 Million, RGSE $13 million. SCTY market cap $5.16 Billion, RGSE $21 million... I'm just sayin'
Selling was overdone - $13 million market cap was way too low. they have $55 million backlog - and $18 million in rev last quarter - and this is despite everything that has gone on with acquisitions that didn't pan out. Now they are writing those down, have a partnership that may expand their footprint - and are working on financing. The easiest profit for any company looking to partner with them or finance them...would be to pick up shares in this 30 cent range. Then you announce the deal, create a short squeeze, get up over a buck again and suddenly you are a viable company with a huge backlog in a red hot solar market. it happens.
Potential for delisting and other bad news is already priced in. Hawaii was bad luck and they are writing it down/off - despite everything, they generated $18 million in revenue for the quarter AND maintained the backlog of $55 million. Someone will lend them money. they are signing new business, they are hiring people - I don't see bk in the cards. This will be a bit of a roller coaster Tuesday with a lot of shares traded - be careful. I also wouldn't rule out a short squeeze.. I've seen it happen.
Someone takes a chance, gives RGSE a loan at not so great rates, also gets several million shares on the cheap... then RGSE is able to convert their 55 million dollar backlog.. and presto, that financer makes a bundle. The backlog is worth something to someone. They are officially for sale at this point.. Tuesday will be interesting.
From the last earnings release, they had net revenue of 18.9M - and take a look at this clip regarding backlog. Doesn't look like BK is in the cards. Shorts will hold out hope their financing will fall through, but take a look at the report regarding Financing Capacity. They have 5+ months to get back above $1 - I see that as a very likely as earnings and financing unfold.
From the earnings release:
Backlog and Net Sales Orders
Backlog has increased for transactions from acquired companies at the date of acquisition and thereafter for net sales orders (representing newly signed contracts with customers, net of contract cancellations or holds), and decreased for installations reflected in revenue.
• Potential future revenue in backlog at September 30, 2014 grew 137% to a record $58.4 million from September 30, 2013.
• Backlog increased 18.5% or $9.1 million from backlog at June 30, 2014.
• The year-over-year growth in the company's backlog is primarily due to new sales orders and a higher ASP, as well as acquired backlog of approximately $14 million.