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CombiMatrix Corporation Message Board

tsoprevelc 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2014 5:28 PM Member since: Oct 30, 2002
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  • tsoprevelc by tsoprevelc Aug 27, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    HECO announced their updated plans on allowing solar to feed back into the grid through 3030... they plan to triple the current amount. They have to make some ugprades to accommodate the increased load, but that's a good thing. Most areas of the islands already have the capacity. They also plan a 20% reduction in utility rates by 3030, but that still keeps Hawaii with the highest power rates by far. So plenty of incentive for residential instalation. I was just there in June - Solar is very prevelent, but there are many, many rooftops to go - all good stuff for Sunetric/RGSE. Also many more states that will get solar friendly over time. Customers will demand it and ulitmately overthrow the oil and coal industries from blocking it.
    I bought more in the $1.50's... I see plenty of room for recovery in PPS and growth in the years ahead.

  • Reply to

    Very positive sign that we held $1.84 today

    by tsoprevelc Aug 21, 2014 4:26 PM
    tsoprevelc tsoprevelc Aug 22, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Hate to say it, but every company swipes things under the rug when they are publicly traded. There are many things you can do from an accounting perspective to make things look better. The good news here is they are acknowledging some of the issues, cleaning them up and setting their sites on a turn-around. They have a good foundation, are in a hot market, have substantial sales and could easily become a more dominant player. It's a contentious, rough and cyclical market in solar, but I'm sticking with it for the long haul.

  • The "bad" news is out and they have pretty much wiped the slate clean with the goodwill charge. Holding at this level today (and not dropping below $1.70 yesterday) means we have good support. If shorts held through all of that, they will get bored over the next several days and begin to cover... which shoudl provide a steady drift up. Or - we get some positive news out of the company and get back where we left off before earnings much more quickly. long term, RGSE still looks good. Revenue is growing at a fast clip, they are going to drop unprofitable business, improve margins and stick with a very hot residential sector. Keep in mind, these guys are not too far behind SCTY from a revenue perspective - if they get the rest of their #$%$ together, we are going to be sitting pretty.

  • Couldn't listen to the call - I know they will up the original esimate of 45 to 50MW.

  • tsoprevelc tsoprevelc Aug 16, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    Roth was looking for a loss of .17 Again, the larger point being that they have a target of $6 with those low estimates Look for another upgrade.

  • Roth reiterated a buy on Aug 7th with a target of $6. Now we know they crushed that $23.9M estimate, and excluding one time adjustments, their EPS is also looking very good. SCTY Q2 revs were $61.3M (below expectations) on a loss of $75M, RGSE is going to have revs of $34 to $36M and a worst case loss of $22M. Obviously they are blowing away the numbers on revenue and are very likely to up the forecast - we are in great shape. Shorts - be very cautious on Monday... this is not a time or price level to think you are going to jump on and short... you have no idea what the actual news will be and what the forecast will be.. they are nipping at the heals of SCTY.
    http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2014/08/07/roth-capital-reiterates-buy-on-real-goods-solar-into-2q14-earnings-results/

  • Reply to

    Revenue of 29M should be no problem

    by tsoprevelc Aug 13, 2014 10:15 AM
    tsoprevelc tsoprevelc Aug 13, 2014 9:27 PM Flag

    Revenue will matter some and EPS will matter some (unless they are blowouts), but forecast will matter the most. I'm hoping for upward suprises on all three.

  • RGSE had revenue of 22.1M in Q1 - they mentioned weather delays, merger related delays - and also mentioned a substantial backlog of business... and raffirmed guidance of 50-55MW without Sunetric. And, this is from Sunetric in March: "Sunetric maintains an extensive backlog and pipeline of commercial and residential projects, with revenue topping $38 million in 2013." You do the math.
    I think we'll be just fine and odds are very good they will be bumping up the forecast.

  • tsoprevelc tsoprevelc Aug 12, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    I would argue there is a much better argument for a short to cover at this level. Do you really think with all they have going on they are going to zero... come on, they have a large pipeline, great forecast, cash, etc. not sure where you shorted, but I would take your profits very soon. 100% better chance of this hitting 4 than zero. I've seen companies go up in flames... an established solar installer in business at a time when competitors cannot keep up with demand is not a company that will be going up in flames.

  • Reply to

    question for mr. roger sanchez

    by randiegee98 Aug 12, 2014 3:17 PM
    tsoprevelc tsoprevelc Aug 12, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Says the guy who is still holding a large short position : ) This stock goes up and down and will continue to do so... have no fear. they are not going to zero or much below this level if at all.
    Also not sure if you read the press release on this same web site: "The company has rescheduled the conference call to provide more time for it to complete the accounting and reporting of the consolidation of businesses acquired earlier this year, Sunetric and Mercury."
    They have a decent amount of cash, got more from their aquisition of Mercury and more from the recent offering to fund thier residental business. You hold your short position until the 19th if you like.

  • Nothing changed because they delayed earnings. There are ton of regulations around earnings and the reports you have to file. They have a couple of aquisitions and that complicates things, so I would rather have them make sure everything is in order.
    They reaffirmed 50 to 55MW and that was without Sunetric - so that's only going to get revised higher.. They also talked about their backlog - which they should be working through - meaning they will have had a solid quarter. We already know residentail demand is up and the others are having a hard time keeping up... I don't see much potential for bad news coming out of RGSE.

  • RGSE Q2 revenue is sure to be significantly higher than 22.1M, especially after they add in Sunetric $. Very simple math says RGSE is way undervalued given their growth - let's see how their expectaions compare when RGSE reports next week. I say we go much higher..

  • tsoprevelc tsoprevelc Aug 4, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    yeah, that's gonna happen. Never understand why shorts (some) are so greedy and somehow think a stock like this is going bankrupt or into the pennies. Hate to tell you, but their business is expanding, they are in a hot sector and they are very likely to increase guidance next week because prior guidance didn't include Sunetric numbers.

    Cover at least half here. I sold half at 5.50 and have been adding again in the low two's. The odds of hitting 5.50 again are much, much better than 1.50...but you go ahead and hang on for 50 cents. By the way, that's how we get to 5.50 quicker.

  • Reply to

    Registered Shares

    by tsoprevelc Jul 31, 2014 6:58 PM
    tsoprevelc tsoprevelc Jul 31, 2014 7:56 PM Flag

    Thanks for clarifying.. the quantity looked familiar! : )

  • tsoprevelc by tsoprevelc Jul 31, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    The light volume drop after hours was because they registered 4.2 million shares. I see three positive reasons:
    1) They are going to make another aquisition
    2) The need more cash for the residential leasing program because is taking off faster than expected
    3) They are going to take advantage of an after earnings rise in share price and do 1 and / or 2 above.

  • Reply to

    Bottom buyers..

    by tsoprevelc Jul 29, 2014 3:15 PM
    tsoprevelc tsoprevelc Jul 30, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    and there you go..hope some people bought in the low 5's. We could go a bit higher today depending on short covering.

  • Reply to

    Bottom buyers..

    by tsoprevelc Jul 29, 2014 3:15 PM
    tsoprevelc tsoprevelc Jul 29, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    They have another couple of trials underway for GR-MD-02 with lung fibrosis and kidney fibrosis as well as a couple of trials using GM-CT-01 and GR-MD-02 for Melanoma.
    As for where this opens... that depends entirely of who comes to their defense and how convincing the article is. If no news, then we still have a pop, but longs are forced to unwind for a bit here.

  • tsoprevelc by tsoprevelc Jul 29, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Buying some here for the bounce. They have other options in the pipeline and you know they will come out in defense of the fidings as well as expectations for phase 3. This was a set up and shorts are in control as people are forced to unwind.. but I'm willing to risk some cash at this level for a short term squeeze / gain.

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