That just can't be true. No one would want to short this now. You could see people taking their profits, Hedging it etc but SHORTING now is only for crazies. Here is how it works - People will put their speculative hedges now, Shorts would be covering now. Then election comes based on outcome - Big investors will get in or wait for policy decisions. That's when you could see some short. It does not make any sense in shorting it now.
Yes. It could go down in next 2 days based on weekly expiration. Also based on Sept/Oct jitters it could see some rotations, pull back etc
But, I feel this is playing out like another emerging market election from earlier this year - India. Then the market bottomed in Feb, then it had a run up before election, Then huge gap up when clear and desired head won the election. Since then, it has been up by not as much.
If I have to theorize it in Brazilian context, we could see continued run up, gap up and then long term rise. But again there are differences between two. India got a very market friendly head who is right of center. Brazil, everyone is to the left of center. But then again, market is liking the change. Funds are just positioning to get in. THey have not yet GOT in.
It had a good run and some pull back could be expected. I sold some covered calls expiring this week and 20th. If it pulls back, i still get to keep my shares (10% each). If it runs to $20, i will let it go for that 10% with good profit. Probably time to make donation to ALS cause.
Are you republican? Is this some sort of Political joke for election year ( I meant US election).
PBR was in penalty box for the right reasons.and now, its trying to get out of penalty box based on some good data (proof) and Hope.
Remember - Market may seem wrong on a given day. But its pretty fair over time ( till we find a better system)
What are you talking about? PBR can go higher - YES. It has momentum, news cycle and numbers. Victims? Did you mean BP? CHevron? Exxon? I hold BP and it is victim of its own. I have been buying BP as well.
if you theorize that there is finite money and money has to come out of Google to prop up PBR, then you are wrong. PBR market cap is moving up by few $B not $100B. So, its all happening without any victims.
My other message did not get posted.
For first time buyer, I would do very little with Options. I will buy shares. I will sell puts (real short term). if i really get in speculative mood, I would buy 2016 $25 calls. I would bid up the call by 1 cent every hour to get in it ( spread is 19 cents).
That drop was all related to options. Don't write SEPT calls for quick gain. They seem tempting for someone who got in early. But, big boys are positioning for the election. Many of them are not in yet. We could see some good upward volatility. Volume is picking up.
I think, your discount broker can marry those positions. So, you won't end up with purchasing the shares. Mine does that way. Check with yours. Also, look into your tax situation. Would you want to book the profits in 2014 or defer it to 2015? A call spread on Jan Options will give you money now but defer the profits to 2015. You can take principal off the table and play with house money.
Unless you are playing with small amount of options, keep some till 2015 and here is why - You got in it at good price. Options are difficult to trade for ordinary investors. The spread is huge. Even today, for Jan $20 calls its 7 cents spread. That's almost 8%. So, getting in at right time is always difficult. So is getting out. But, worse that can happen with PBR is - you will break even with a spread.
Anyway, its your call. Good luck.
That is true. You forgot the year when its going to happen 2030 is when they are going to do it.
It all depends. There are many models that explain it. Decay will start once the momentum changes. You probably would have seen that those very calls are up 50% in last 2 trading sessions. With options and the poor liquidity it has, timing is very critical.
Did you think of selling Jan 21/22 calls against your $20 calls? Or just selling Sep/Oct $20 calls?
Or just closing the position to open $20 2016 calls?
Also, if this is sizable portion of your portfolio, you should unload some. Otherwise ride it all the way. Rewards are proportional to risks. And stop watching it on daily basis.
Survival of the fittest. did you hear that? Charles Darwin or Spencer was so right. The weak got crushed this week.
Remember every ADR gets manipulated in Options expiration week.
The stock is showing strong signs of jumping back. Right now, there are few more news left from Brazil on election front. Who will replace Campos or they will just not contest. That news should be out in next few days. The monthly options expiration is another factor. It will be quite volatile later today and tomorrow.
I am in today with stocks and 2016 calls. I think, they would do well irrespective of election outcome. May have to hold for longer if no positive outcome on political front over the weekend.
I think, the election outcome is already priced in based on Dilma getting another term. I think, its now on 1. How soon and how much can the price hike be 2. Production.
Based on the results, it seems that price hike is needed urgently and that too good hike. Not paltry 4%. Unfortunately, the calendar for this hike is still a Q away.
The stock could sell off in short term. Probably would be good time to get in.14-15 would be the new base. 17-18 is the ceiling.