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FLY Leasing Limited Message Board

tthemainman38 184 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Nov 17, 2009
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  • Reply to

    CUT YOUR LOSS NOW

    by chokedbyfist 15 hours ago
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 14 hours ago Flag

    DRYS and ORIG are two separate entities with the same management, we hope.

    Nice handle. Reminds me of an expression my friends and I used as kids, We'd say, why don't you go home and choke your chicken. Nexus of the handle?

  • Reply to

    Game Changer

    by tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 3:28 PM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 15 hours ago Flag

    Donna- The spanking has been severe, no doubt about. The question is, well one of the questions is, has it been warranted. Based on the fundamentals, I think not. The problem with this sector right now is that while the sharp drop in oil prices will surely have a negative on all the drillers, the punishment may have been over done. Also, while all the drillers will be hurt, ORIG is in decent shape fundamentally. That's why some of us have been seeking answers to why ORIG's share price has suffered more than others. According to the company, they will be profitable through 2016 because 88 per cent of possible contracted days are set for 2015 and 69 per cent of possible days are set for 2016. These are not verbal agreements, they are signed contracts. Beyond 2016, who knows, not I and I suspect not many if any can say with certainty.

  • tthemainman38 tthemainman38 15 hours ago Flag

    Still waiting for a response to a simple question.

  • tthemainman38 tthemainman38 17 hours ago Flag

    This world is inhabited by all kinds of folks. Some bring out the best in us, others bring out the worst. You, my little chickadee belong in the latter category. With that in mind, I will refrain from addressing you in a disrespectful manner.
    I did not disparage or demean boat9man when I responded to his text. He was making the point that the BDI was in an upward trend at 860 and I responded that it was coming off a forever low of 509. No sarcasm, just putting his post in context. I would like boat9man to comment on this exchange, as to my offending him.
    Regarding the BDI. I have no position in DRYS, thus, not overly concerned with the BDI. Because I am long ORI I loosely follow the BDI because of DRYS and ORIG's shared management. One question has occurred to me that perhaps you can respond to. On Feb 2nd, this year the BDI closed at a forever low of 509. That day DRYS was priced at $.90. Today you point out that the BDI is at 1131. That's a significant improvement, no bout adout it. The problem is that DRYS share price is $.52. Could you offer an opinion on this seeming disparity?

  • Reply to

    Game Changer

    by tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 3:28 PM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    rnewing39- It's obvious that you're not big on math. Start with the two times table. When you master that, get back to me and possibly we can have an adult conversation regarding ORIG's finances.

  • Reply to

    Game Changer

    by tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 3:28 PM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    big red sun- No bout adout it. Many feel uneasy and yes it is reflected in the share price.

    Exchanging view points doesn't or shouldn't bother anyone. That's how we learn from each other.

  • Reply to

    Game Changer

    by tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 3:28 PM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    kgfvhfd- Some view the glass as half empty while others view it as half full. Different points of view add much value to a message board when different opinions can be expressed without name calling. Your analysis is accurate and your numbers are right on the money. Having said that, there are other ways of looking at the situation. Example,, prior to the share offering the share price was $8.09. While no one can know for sure how much the share offering contributed to the huge decline in price since then, in my opinion it was a substantial factor. For every dollar lost, times the number of outstanding shares, is significantly more than $80 million.

    Like I said initially, Half Full / Half Empty. In any event, I'm thinking the spanking will soon end.

  • Reply to

    Game Changer

    by tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 3:28 PM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    big_red_sun - ORIG and DRYS are two separate entities, one the parent company but each independent of each other. Both are led by the same individual and board and that's where the confusion and trust issues arise. True ORIG sold 28.5 million shares on the open market, thus diluting themselves, generating approximately $200 million. It's also true that ORIG purchased 17.8 million shares from DRYS in lieu of the $80 million balance on the $120 million loan. If in fact, these are two separate entities, the 17.8 million share purchase by ORIG at approximately $4.50 a share may look like a great deal down the road. Regarding the shell game characterization. Some, if not many share your point of view.

  • tthemainman38 by tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    Not that I expect it to happen but if the company announced a meaningful share buy back, the share price would/could make a serious sustained come back. Many of those 28.5 million shares remain in weak hands and are looking for a home. It's likely that many of the S/O buyers were attracted by the dividend and now that the dividend has been suspended, they want out. We're seeing some of that today. Some of the cash retained by suspending the dividend could fund the buy back w/o putting the financials in jeopardy.

    Some may think that the share offering was in part neutralized by the 17.78 million share purchase from DRYS in lieu of the loan. Those 17.78 million shares were owned by DRYS. They were closely held shares, thus not part of the problem. Purchasing even 20 million shares in the OPEN market would do wonders for the share price. Also, if the average repurchase price was $5 per share, the company would have profited by $40 million from the share offering.

    In any event I believe that soon, the bleeding ends. Why ? Because the second shoe fell when the dividend suspension was announced. There still remains the unwanted shares sloshing around BUT those that remain after the next day or two probably have made up their mind to ride it out, for better or worse.

    Just my take on the situation at this point in time. Best of Breed. Doesn't get any better than that.

  • tthemainman38 by tthemainman38 Jul 30, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    The market hates the unknown. While the suspension of the dividend was largely reflected in the share price, some very sort term selling will be triggered by those that can't or won't buy or hold non dividend payers. Taking this action removes an unknown. Longer term, it was a smart and prudent move and will be benificial to we longs. The market should interpret this action as the company thinking prudently and long term, building and conserving cash, in the event oil prices don't recover as quickly as we'd like. Eliminating the dividend was not and should not be viewed as an indication of desperation. The company has ample cash on hand and guaranteed to remain profitable through 2016 by virtue of signed contracts thru that period of time. In my opinion this company is Best of Breed despite the spanking it's received.

  • Reply to

    All mining stocks will go to $0

    by momentum_play Jul 20, 2015 11:17 AM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 29, 2015 10:01 PM Flag

    tedallinnby- No need to go to Vegas, they have casinos in Aruba. Play craps, bet the pass line and back it up to the limit. This action will reduce the hose pc to less than one per cent.

    Not a guaranteed win but you'll be bucking less than one per cent odds. Not too risky for a brother oil and metal investor. Have a great vacation. As soon as I sell enough pencils, I too will take a vacation..

  • Reply to

    SilverCrest's Management Accepts A Low Offer

    by markedtofuture Jul 29, 2015 2:53 PM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 29, 2015 7:23 PM Flag

    Also, this is one of a very few mining companies that remain profitable at current metal prices. Total BS, selling itself at this time. Doubling production YOY and selling it on the cheap.

  • Reply to

    Read and Heed

    by tthemainman38 Jul 28, 2015 7:30 PM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 29, 2015 12:01 AM Flag

    Nothing new about that. While a company is profitable management can get away with quite a bit of self serving actions without being questioned on it. During a downturn, questions are raised, especially when management is prospering while shareholders are being crushed. Yes there is something that's causing me to be concerned, concerned not bothered. I'm concerned that George is siphoning off DRYS assets and that when he is finished with DRYS he and his gang will attempt the same with ORIG. Regarding George not violating any laws because he discloses. I have higher expectations of a CEO than being able to stay within the law. As to the man being a genius, winding up as King of the dry bulk industry. I don't take it as a sign of genius while he's in charge and massive wealth destruction is occurring. King of the dry bulk industry? Mr Market will be the final arbiter on that one. You think King, I think it likely that the siphoning of assets will continue followed by a prepackaged bankruptcy. Where you see genius and King, I see Looter and Diluter. While I hope you are right in your assessment because I would hate for any shareholder to get wiped out, we shall have to wait for the fat lady to sing.

    Regarding all drillers being down 50 per cent, run the graphs, you're wrong.

    Points of agreement-- $4.7 million dollar pipeline is strong, 88 per cent contracted days for 2015 and 69 per cent for 2016 guarantees profits, new in demand fleet, $500 plus million cash on hand w/o counting the $193 million cash raised from the share price killing share offering. Company wisely deferred two of the new builds to Q1 2018 and 2019

  • tthemainman38 by tthemainman38 Jul 28, 2015 7:30 PM Flag

    I've been posting that our George & Family gang members have been siphoning DRYS dry in a systematic way for sometimes. Many of his defenders say this is not so and in support of their position they point to the fact that he has invested $80 million of his own money to shore up the company. That is a lot of coin and I'm not disputing the claim. However, do not take this as a charitable act or a concern for shareholders. I just read an article on Seeking Alpha that suggested that George and family have prospered greatly by this cash infusion. By keeping DRYS afloat George and his Gang through wholly owned companies were paid $78 million dollars in fees for 2013 alone. George and his gang are going to keep this goose alive as long as possible. We ORIG longs have to be aware of this because pilferers like to pilfer.

    Don't take my word on this, corroborate it by reading the 2014 DRYS Annual Report, Related Parties Transactions, pages 109 thru 114.

    . I believe that once DRYS is separated from it's best assets, George and his gang may do a structured bankruptcy, whereon present shareholders get wiped out and the greatest injustice of all, George gets to stay on.

    Hope I'm wrong for the sake of DRYS shareholders BUT I've been on the losing end of similar situations that haven't had happy endings. Sure, occasionally companies make it back from the abyss and I'm sure the Resident Idiot will point out a few BUT as always, the devil is in the details and the Idiot never gives the details. To da moon, to da moon baby. Perhaps, perhaps not.

  • Reply to

    Tthemainman: Prove this.

    by mewing39 Jul 28, 2015 11:25 AM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 28, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    Resident Idiot. Not only are you an idiot, but you're in the dummy class of idiots. Apparently you don't grasp the meaning of in essence. Also, aren't you the same Idiot that constantly tells others to sell if they disagree with your story line? Should that be construed as advice or have you been crowned the King of the Idiots, giving you the right to order others.

    To da moon, to da moon baby.

  • tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 28, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    What were the terms of the warrants? It's all in the details.

  • tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 28, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    Do you really think that anyone would take advice from a widely acknowledged Idiot? No one will listen to you because you have nothing of value to offer. In essence all you have to offer is, To da moon, to da moon baby, followed by ORIG is a strong buy.

    Here's one more chance to redeem your credibility. How do you account for ORIG being pounded harder than it's peers by the market, despite being fundamentally sound? Clues, Distrust of management, ill advised share offering.

  • Reply to

    New position 3.96. Half size

    by kem60 Jul 27, 2015 10:57 AM
    tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 27, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    Usetobetaxidriver- I've looked hard for the negatives. Other than my mistrust of management, can't envision bankruptcy. This really does appear to be Best of Breed. Anyone believing the world will no longer need oil should consider leaving the space BUT that is highly unlikely. It then comes down to survivability. The company reports that as of March 31st 88 per cent of available days are booked for 2015 and 69 per cent for 2016. They also stated that in the event that no additional leasing be captured for 2016 , that each and every rig, on average, will produce ,,$345,978 per day while operating expenses per day has been reduced to $165,889. These figures strongly support the argument that the company will be profitable through 2016 on a worse case scenario. No one can say for sure what oil prices will be in future years but it's difficult to envisage a world not in need of oil over the next decade, two or three.

  • tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 27, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    The Resident Idiot says " To da moon, to da moon baby," You think getting spanked every day is a negative. That's because you don't understand NUANCES. If you ask the Idiot in a nice way, it may agree to conducting a private tutorial exclusively for you. Only then will you be able to grasp the "Thinking outside da box" management style of George the Looter or is it George the Diluter.

    You do know of course, that the only people on this message board are you, the Resident Idiot and me.

  • tthemainman38 tthemainman38 Jul 27, 2015 2:33 PM Flag

    Resident Idiot- While I realize that one demeans themselves by engaging in name calling, on rare occasions, one is confronted by such an obnoxious individual that you MUST call a spade a spade.

FLY
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