ed- Regarding the yo-yoing action regarding FLY's share price. This has been an ongoing problem since the share offering back in July 2013. Too many loosely held shares that have to be repurchased by the company. While not intended, management sent a strong message that the shares were worth significantly less than book by selling a significant number of shares at such a huge discount to share and market price at the time of the offering. What made this so egregious was that the fire sale was unnecessary.
Ed- I stated that the dividend is rock solid, not the share price. Had I thought that the shares were rock solid I would not have sold earlier in the month.
Ex- Rig is down from a high of $49.5 8 to $17 and change. I would say it has already dropped. In the event that they eliminated the dividend, there would likely be more on the downside. FLY on the other hand is rock solid on the dividend but for whatever reason, lagging the market.
Drillers look like screaming buys, down so much from their highs, But the danger in that space is the debt Loads and the new builds coming on stream. ,Tempting, but not a no brainer.
Maybe it's time to put aside attempting to rationalize the performance of the stock and take a look at what Mr Market is saying since he's the final arbiter. Take a look at the one year charts comparing aer, ayr al and fly. FLY has clearly underperformed the sector. Why continue to discuss the why of it since it is what it is. Note the action of the share price on Nov 15th, a mid day low of$10.88. That swooning of the share price certainly grabbed my attention because, since we hadn't had a stellar performance going into the general market decline, I didn't expect such a large decline in our share price in a declining market. This action caused me to be a very reluctant seller after being an enthusiastic long for many years. For whatever reason, irrespective of the value, Mr Market is down on this company. Having stated that, should the company announce a meaningful share buy back, I would be a buyer.
sdrsmiths- No one really knows for sure the when and where prices for pm.'s will wind up BUT if you like the space EXK is one of the safer bets. Great management, little debt, ample cash and one of the lowest AISC, Also, my expectation is that costs will be lowered over the short term (one to two quarters out).
mwalk- No bout adout it, many countries are feeling the pinch because of declining oil prices. Fortunately, it is great for we consumers and a bit of help for miners. In the absence of higher metal prices, the miners have to reduce costs. I remain confident that El Cubo;s cost will become more Bolanitos like, as promised by management. Should they accomplish that in the short term, we would be profitable sub $15 silver.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
mwalk- Are you saying that it will take a war before investing in EXK is a good investment? I think not. My expectation is that cots are being lowered while we continue to wait for the rise in metal prices. Those not believing that pm's will rise probably left this space quite some time ago. Many of we longs remain long because we continue to believe that metals will rise and we have the best management and very good assets.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
audio- I've been checking the Baltic Dry Index daily and the trend has been down so it appears unlikely that rates are rising.
Van- That would be very positive for FLY because any shortage would enable them to raise lease rates as they come off lease. Air lines are having a banner year given low fuel prices and increased traffic. Nothing like customers (airlines)m flushed with cash. I'm surprised that FLY's share price hasn't benefited but decided to stop fighting the tape after the sell off on October 15th. That swoon reminded me of late 2007 early 2008 when this space got clobbered, despite decent earnings and good capacity utilization. Back then, the driver was 20 per cent lackluster fundamentals and 80 per cent fear and misinformation.
FSM is one of a very few that is profitable at current metal prices. Also, the company has ample cash and little debt, another unusual positive for this sector.
John- This stock, for whatever reason, no longer trades on fundamentals. I agree, it could and should exceed $15 before the next quarterly report should the market remain strong. However, should the market suffer a correction, you may be able to double in the $10 area. Check out the action going into October 15th.
don- All true. Despite this the share price of FLY has languished. When a companies share price significantly under performs the market for weeks and months it may be time to reassess your investment. When it underperforms for sixteen months you have to ask yourself, what does Mr Market know that you don't? This does not appear to be a sector problem because the competition is beating the market, some more than others.
Please, no comparisons to be made SDRL/FLY. SDRL suspended the $4 annual dividend today in it's entirety. While a cut was expected, the elimination surprised everyone, thus the spanking.
FLY seems fully committed to a generous dividend. Should Mr Barrington decide to take a different course of action I would suggest stuffing the seat of your pants with newspapers because a serious spanking would follow. That's the problem with holding a stock when management is less than forthcoming. Remember, Mr Barrington stated that the company had ample capital to fund the ongoing expansion w/o the need for a capital raise during the Q1 2013 conference call. This turned out to be untrue.
Wow. Considering that we closed at $17.38 on July 9th 2013 while the DOW closed at 15,300 perhaps we should hold off on the celebration. Also. check out the action going into Oct 15th when the share price cratered to a mid day low of $10.88. That took me by surprise because I wasn't expecting FLY to give up the ghost as quickly since they lagged the market so badly going into the correction. Having been around this space since 2008, I am aware of how badly and quickly the situation can become sour. No predictions here, just reminding some of the long term posters to use caution.
It appears that FLY has become a Value Trap. While the metrics are good to very good, the share price does not respond to good news and for the last sixteen months has badly lagged both the dow and it's peers. While it's been difficult to pin point the problem, an educated guess is distrust of management in addition to too many shares in weak hands.
Ed- Buying older airplanes on the cheap was always a positive for FLY, not a trap. The age of the aircraft was not the derterminent, it was the spread. Also, the company always showed a profit when selling older aircraft, a strong indicator that they purchased right. Since the company changed course and only purchases new to newer airplanes, the share price has languished. I'm not stating that the share price should suffer because of this decision but it undoubtedly has. Like many others, I believed that the share price would rise to reflect the value and that the generous dividend would suffice to sooth the pain of holding. I grew weary of fighting the tape for such an extended period of time and the deciding factor that caused me to pull the trigger was when the market coughed last month and the share price swooned to a mid day $10.86. Since the share price had lagged the market so badly over the past year, the hasty retreat took me by surprise. Despite my message being repetitive, the company has to buy back the loosely held shares, say $100 million worth. Seventy cents on the dollar would be a better bargain than their getting on the new purchases.
Steve- One thing for sure, the trend is your friend. My expectation is that the share price will take out the old low before turning up. Let's agree to check back in three months to see how this plays out.
Might not be the smartest move, shorting after the share price declined by 84 %. Why didn't you short the stock at $18.60 back then? Had you done that, today, we would be saying, that steve guy is one smart fellow.