van- You're right. In the past the company maintained flexibility, considered everything and anything that enhanced shareholder value, including the buying and selling of older planes. In recent times, it seems they only considered purchasing new to newer airplanes only. This purchase was a break from that strategy and I agree with your thought that it will enhance the value of the company.
The reason that I mentioned the Petrobras contracts possibly being the reason for the earnings adjustment s downwards was because both rigs under contract with Petrobras were due to expire during Q1. When I checked the company website there wasn't any info on the contracts having been renewed or extended. When I Googled in search for information, there was an article dated late November 2014 indicating that the contracts were to be extended. That was before all the fallout regarding Petrobras kickbacks.
steve- When You're right you're right. You've been making the bear case for quite some time while some of us longs have been seeing it differently. Thus far, you've been spot on. Things may change but the company has to at the very least minimize the burn rate r better yet, become profitable.
edsha- Agreed, that's why they have to buy back the unwanted shares. Look at the differences in the share prices of AYR & AER. This disparity in share prices didn't exist when the company had a share buy back program prior to the share offering. Some have said that it is the way the company is structured that has caused the share price to lag. I disagree, the same structure has been in place since the companies inception. We need the share buy back.
Does anyone have any current information to share regarding the two rigs contracted to Petrobras ? I am attempting to account for the projected decrease in earnings projected by Yahoo for 2015 & 2016 and wondered whether they assumed that the Petrobras contracts would be cancelled or altered.
Yesterday, April 13th the company announces a huge YOY increase in silver and gold production and the share price responds by making a new low. Some may interpret this by thinking there must be something occurring that as yet hasn't been disclosed and sell or not invest in the company. Then there are others that like the space despite the carnage that has occurred over the last several years and take this as a huge buying opportunity. I'm in the latter camp.
They say in order to make money in investing you have to buy low and sell high. Buying low today may enable you to sell higher at a later time when the miners come back into favor. Not easy to go against the tide BUT who said making money in the market was easy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
foggiecat- Great that you profited, wish we all could. Regarding the declining ore grades, according to Russ they have improved slightly for Q2 and the expectation is that they will further improve for the second half of the year. Part of the problem is that Russ, more often than not, does not deliver as promised.
foggiecat- No bout adout,it, not the grocery money BUT some speculative money may be worth the chance.
As previously stated, I use to be long, way back before Gibralter was expanded so I know how frustrated being long a Russ managed company can be. The value lies in the assets, not the management. Mining is a difficult business because many things can go wrong. Good management can resolve problems while Russ doesn't have that ability. When a problem occurs, he focuses on another project instead of righting the ship.
newbeat- This stock has been relegated to the dog house, rightly so. Most, if not all shareholders are in the hole so there is a lot of negativity on the board. To answer your question though, it may be a very good time to purchase, if in fact you are willing to sit on it for a while. There are two problems, depressed copper prices and exceptionally poor management. Management has consistently failed to deliver, for whatever reason.
Going way back, it was the inability to purchase tires, birds in the transmission lines and any other reason that Russ could think of to explain the failure to reach stated goals. Here's the thing though, the company can still prosper, despite inept management.
I can't foretell the future, BUT, the share price has roller coasted forever and came back. Buying now is betting that what has happened in the past will repeat itself. Copper has been essential and will continue to be, so longs have that going for them. Unfortunately, Russ has been around forever and for whatever reason, can't be unseated. Because of him and his unending excuses for failing to deliver, I sold many years ago. Despite this, I still follow the company and I too am considering buying back in, despite management. Why? Decent assets, positive cash flow and long term trending upward copper prices. Key word being long term.
My answer, while a gamble, it's worth a shot, not to bet the ranch on though. To be honest though, I haven't pulled the pin yet. For those that would say, why listen to someone who won't put his money where his mouth is, I say, I don't blame you. It's just so hard to invest in a company when management consistently fails to deliver, while time and time again pulls lame excuses out of his butt to explain his failure.
bignoyd- A private placement above trading price would exceed expectations..I'm hoping that it's just a shelf offering because any dilution occurring while mqking new lows would be a clear sign of desperation.
bignoyd- I don't know how credible the info is but yahoo indicates four cents earnings for Q1 and forty cents for 2015. Should this come true, my expectation is that Mr Market will reward the companies shares. Shouldn't be long before earnings are released, in the meantime we make new lows while management remains mute. Perhaps remaining silent may be the better course of action because should management make a statement that they believed to be true and some unforeseen event occur that couldn't be anticipated and they not deliver, the vulture lawyers will be back with their mostly unfounded lawsuits. Unfounded lawsuits were PARTIALLY to blame for the share price collapse. I emphasize partially because investors were expecting a quicker route to profitability than reasonable and management could have done a better job tamping down expectations. Personally, I expect management to be upbeat and a bit over exuberant.BUT, they have to walk the talk.
Thus far steve has called the shot right.
As we all know, precious metals have been on the wane since topping out in 2011. The only worst performer have been the mining companies share prices. None have avoided punishment, even those that have remained profitable. We longs maintain the belief that metals are undervalued and that prices will rise. Unfortunately, we don't know when. In the mean time, we believe that EXK has excellent management, is financially sound ( cash flow positive and adequate cash on hand) , has one of the lowest AISC and focused on lowering costs where ever possible.
On January 12th the company announced that they produced 11.6 million SEO for 2014, the 10th consecutive year of increased production. Shortly after, they projected a low balled production number for 2015. This is something that management does EVERY year. They initially project a low number, adjust it upward (already raised it by 11 per cent) and finish the year by beating the upward revised number. Q1 is in and they produced 2.9 SEO. My expectation is that Q2 when reported will be similar to Q1 BUT Q's 3 and 4 will show marked improvement because the mill expansion and mine development will be completed and bearing fruit. My guess would be 12.5 plus SEO produced for 2015.
Because the space has been in the dog house for such an extended period of time, many if not most, figure none of this fundamental stuff matters, While I can't blame them for being pessimistic, the fact is that it really does matter. Each dollar increase in the price of silver will generate 12 million dollars in profit. No need to point out the downside, we've been living that for several years. With so many companies losing money at todays metal prices, let's hope we're close to if not at the bottom.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
When the share offering occurred, FLY was in an uptrend, priced higher than AYR, on par with AER. Do the comparisons today. Yes, there is the dividend BUT it doesn't begin to cover the lackluster performance. At some point in time management has to alter their plan because the status quo is not working. It's difficult to Be Happy- Don't Worry when management destroys shareholder value. Instead of contemplating another share offering, (very doubtful), they should be buying back shares. Buying conservatively valued ($18.50) shares for $15 plus seems prudent enough and more importantly enhances shareholder value.
No longer long but still consider myself part of the FLY family.
What happened to Airlease, anyone?
Gilly- They reported earnings of four cents, quite good, considering precious metal pries. The company reported taking a non cash charge of a skosh under five million dollars. That charge shaved approximately four and a half cents off earnings. Eight plus cents would have been a very good quarterly earnings. Operationally, management is doing an excellent job. Metal prices and market sentiment has beaten down the share price BUT that is no fault of management. SLVC isn't the only mining stock sharing the dog house with Fido. Here's the thing though. If you have the time and the desire to check out other precious metal companies you will see that our company is amongst the very few that is booking a profit at today's metal prices. Not just positive cash flow but actual profits. Also, production is projected to increase by fifty per cent YOY for 2015 (2.8 million SEO to 4.0-4.4 million SEO). Not at all shabby.
To the Naysayers that correctly point to the share price and say explain that if you can. My response is, all of the miners have been taken to the woodshed BUT if you like the space and believe that metal prices will turn around SVLC is one to consider. Why, because they are profitable, financially sound, engaged in cost cutting while still spending on capex to increase production. As I've previously stated, the main problem with this company is that it is under the radar because it is a small producer on the way to becoming a mid size, thus not followed by many. I see this as an opportunity to buy in early but that's just me. No rose colored glasses here. I try to point out the cons as well as the pros.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The entire sector has been out of favor for several years. Metal prices topped out in 2011 and ALL of the mining stocks have outpaced the decline. When and if metal prices recover, mining companies share prices will rise substantially. The good news is that this company is profitable and growing production rapidly.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Randy- The one analyst that covers the company projected seven cents for the quarter. Interesting in that he had been projecting three cents a few weeks ago. Despite low metal prices this is but one of a few with earnings. Not just cash flow positive but actual earnings. If you lile the space, it's worth consideration.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
News- Do you really feel confident that the dollar will remain strong for a couple of years? While it is true that gold had that decade long run, wasn;t that an aberration? Is there no chance that the dollar will be replaced by another currency or basket of currencies? Might the loss of stature of the US in the world influence the dollar strength at some point in time? I ask these questions, not to rebut your statement, but to hear your response because I highly respect your opinions.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
On March 17th the company announced that the mill at El Cubo was to be expanded to 2200 tpd and that they would be extracting ore from a richer ore body. When completed, perhaps,El Cubo will become the big contributor that management envisaged when the made the purchase. My expectation is that management will once again exceed production projections and that cost will come down despite capex. Since this space has been relegated to the dog house, I wasn't overly surprised when the share price declined on the news.
King Dollar has taken a huge chunk out of the price of gold. No one knows when this trend will end. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index, making all time lows. leads me to believe that economies, world wide, are in worse shape than we think.
Regarding the board being quiet, we've been whupped hard for a long time so we're hunkered down waiting for the metals to trade up. In the mean time, management continues to do their part by increasing production and reserves and lowering costs.
Sentiment: Strong Buy