THIS is why you do not dip-buy even a great stock like EMN when it gets whacked SO CLOSE TO THE END OF THE MONTH!!
If it can get smashed 7 pts in a day it can lose 1-2 points the next day or so right before the EOM!
Funds have to get rid of stocks that do this.
I agree. Just don't be in a hurry. If the long run is weeks or months, then you don't have to buy it today. It's VERY likely that funds will dump this into the end of the month. It's free to watch that, It's expensive to try to outsmart it.
Then by all means and with every dollar you own, buy as much EMN as you can. Make sure you don't wait until funds dump this out to the end of the month, too.
Yeah, but this is a semi-commodity chemical company...it doesn't have any biotech pizzazz. You're not going to see a 20 PE out of them, and their div is only so-so. It's an $80 stock, not a $100 stock...so owning them in the high 80's with an expectation that it goes to 100 is sketchy. It's an excellent company, it's just fully valued here.
Good company, that's for sure. I like to wait til the end of the day to add on mega-dumps, though. REALLY surprised to see this big a drop. I didn't think their earns were bad at all, in fact I bot some calls as protection. Those of course turned into hairballs.
Corn and other commodities are hard to call bottoms on, they do not trade like stocks. I myself believe that CORN has excellent potential but you have to be willing to hold until closer to the end of the year. Google "corn seasonal chart" and you will see that corn almost always forms a bottom in late July, eg; right now. It either rises into October and makes a new low (lower than July) in November, or just gradually rises until the EOY, except of course if there's some unusual weather pattern that nobody can predict.
It should be clear that you have to buy things when it's hard to do so, when everybody else hates them, UNLESS you are talking about AAPL or other stock darling. For dumb old corn that nobody cares about, this is a much slower moving game.
I'm long corn, with a fractional position here. I expect there will be an exit opportunity sometime in the next couple of months but the REAL opportunity, IMO, will be buying shortly before the secondary November bottom. I'd like to catch both!
Not a bad day. Didn't help that /CL traded down all day. But I sense the juices are re-flowing into the refiners.
For future reference: The "EOQ puke-out" scenario was correct is assessment.
The EOQ puke should have been played NOT by buying reflexively on the dip (a day or two early) when the EOQ was so close, but by shorting, lightly, EVEN tho the stock had been hammered already. Or...by just waiting until the very last minute to go long.
Actually..not knowing what you mean "hated last qtr" .....last qtr the VLO and TSO and HFC made pretty high prices, VERY high prices. VLO hasn't been 58 for years, and on a weekly chart, 60 was a reasonably obvious rollover point. HFC low 50's same. MPC is the most flaming oversold of the lot. By far. That does not mean it should scream higher tomorrow or the next day, but MPC is a freaking rocket when it gets going.
You/we'll know this week. As I've said, I think they get tossed out EOM as window undressing, then hopefully get bot back up later this week. Nothing to do but let #$%$ make hopefully better decision than brain.
I expected this toss-out EOM, even though it occurred on a Monday (kinda rare) after the smackdown last
week. Still painful!
I think a new buyer here (me, though I have traded MPC and HFC and VLO on many occasions) should expect that the stock may very well sell off a tad more into the end of the month (EOM) because funds won't want to show they took the loss. Keep i mind, the EOM is a mere three days away, into early next week. I bot both HFC & MPC. Both stocks made higher lows than their reaction lows the day all the refiners got smoked, so there you go.
This close to the end of the month...these refiners may not catch a bid for a week or so. I'm not all that sure these refiners will come roaring back. They have been super performers lately, say, for the past 45 days. Why? Because they can buy US oil and sell refined products based upon Euro oil which is affected by instability over there. With that persist? I don't know, Sometimes the refiners appear to hate high oil prices, this time, seems like they like high oil. I *do* know that refiners are not necessarily good buys at PEs of 15. They usually have to get down to single digit PEs. A sector to watch, for sure, not necessarily one to jump on first thing tomorrow.
She said she keeps hearing the economy is improving and that I should get up earlier and start looking for a job.
I said, "But Mom, any job I get is not going to be able to take advantage in my undergrad degree in Medieval Nutsakkery, and I'd probably lose my healthcare benefits I'm eligible for under 0bamacare".
"Never mind that", she said, she just banged on the door at eleven instead of noon and started railing away at me for getting the kind of rest I need. It's time you get out there. "Don't you realize you're going to have to start making your student loan payments in a few months?"
On that point, I knew she was maybe right. Although I definitely know that it's a lot warmer around noon than it is earlier in the morning, and I'm pretty sure that's due to global warming. And if I get a job and have to drive there every day, I know I'll just be contributing to the problem, dude. I'm not sure I'll be able to reconcile that with my feelings about climate change. I'm not George Bush, I can't just go ahead and ignore the worldwide consequences of my actions.
The really scary thing is that Mom said she'd be waking me up at ten next week, and then 9 the week after, until I am up probably some time before the freaking sun comes up, even though I'm not sure exactly when that is. One of my professors in college said that the time when the sun rises is always changing, and I thought that dude is so batty in the head, nobody could even figure out when to go to work if that was true. It would be like saying that 10:30 is a time that's always changing. I remember laughing at him at the time. But that's another reason why it's gonna be tough for me to find a job.