It's hard to tell what the acctg impact actually is. Things will be a lot better when they start booking the closings. We also have the overhang of the SEC fine to get out of the way. Not to mention currency exchange fro RENN and Bluegreen's weakest qtr. BBX was in the mid-13s before the tender offer for a reason...
I think they will buy the rest too but it maybe at $20 again or even lower if the L-man and arrange it. I have enough BFCF now. (I've been riding the tankers and CELH in the meantime.)
"The first quarter of 2015 was the strongest quarter in years. The general uptick in rates seen through the fourth quarter of 2015 continued without the fallback seen during the same quarter in 2014. Suezmax rates up to the week ending March 13, 2015 averaged just over $51,000 per day based on the Clarksons Modern Suezmax Tanker Index. For the equivalent VLCC index the average was just over $53,000 per day.
"Coming into 2015 vessel values continued to rise. The following values are based on weekly observations up to the week ending March 13, 2015. According to the Clarksons data, 5 year old Suezmaxes rose in value by 8.4% from an average of $54.9m in 4Q2014 to $59.5m in 1Q2015. 5 year old VLCCs rose in value by 5.2% from an average of $76.7m in 4Q2014 to $80.7m in 2015. Prices rose as a result of a stronger earnings environment and increased activity in the timecharter market."
They also wrote: "So far, in the second quarter, the Euronav... Suezmax fleet trading on the spot market have earned on average USD 40,504 per day..."
There are a number of reasons to believe this trend can and should be sustained. Demand for crude is real and has crucially been growing. This has been demonstrated in the past 3-4 months. Indeed, several of the agencies have started to upgrade their oil demand forecasts. Secondly, the prospects of growing vessel supply over the next two years remain limited. Last, voyage distances are increasing, driving higher ton-miles. These factors underpin management confidence going forward."
Keep in mind in 2014 (per Intertanko) Suezmax rates averaged only 27,066.