is a newsletter headed by a man named Al Frank
(or Franks) He generally buys out of favor stocks
with about a 3 year time horizon. He also uses margin
He makes some good and bad calls but all in all I
would say he is a savy investor. I believe he uses
He really got caught bad in the
87 crash and made no secret of it. Although I do not
follow him, I do not hold that against him.
the way what was Franks target price before he
lowered it to 13?
to me what is going on here on the message
I am knew to the board and am not employed by the
company, nor have I ever been. I know no one who is, or
I am guessing, but am I correct that SYX bought or
merged with MWM? If not who is MWM? I do not
I am not here to get mixed up in whatever is
occurring on this board. I just would like to know what is
Someone else may have a better answer to this
I would say the dividend is safe.
But if we go into a larger economic downturn than the
"Street" currently anticipates I would say it could be a
If there is a large economic
downturn, the logical thing for some corporations to do is
to cut down on or eliminate the dividend to save
who is knew, I suggest you take a look at the
MCRS board, a chart of the stock(daily, weekly,
monthly, and the news stories. It is worth the read to see
what can in reality happen in the markets.
bloodbath is occurring in that stock. People on that board
are getting slaughtered, but I have to give them
credit. They do not appear to be whining wimps.
I try to avoid risk as much as possible. The
rewards in those stocks can be tremendous, yes. I do look
at them on occasion.
The PE's in those stocks
are beyond my comprehension, and I do not believe the
NASDAQ has made a real bottom yet.
At this time I
cannot limit the risk factor to fit my
I do not like gambling. I try to limit the risk,
that is, the amount the stock will move against me if
I am wrong. With the group you referred to that is
not possible at this time, and is therefore too close
to gambling for me.
The reason for being in
the markets is to make money. For now, I will leave
it to others to be the "gunslingers".
way instead of complaining about other posts, and in
CAPS, you might consider just posting what you think
about the stock, whatever the criteria is that you use
to evaluate the stock.
out of here. There are several possible counts at
this point. What shape the rally will take and how
strong the rally will be is open to several
possibilities at this point.
Could go a little lower
The stock could rally to 12-13 and head south again,
or it could rally above(or around) 16 at this
Can't do any better than that for now, that is the way
with the analysis in post 2479. Although that
could be accurate I would not consider this a low risk
trade at this point. The probability of that analysis
being accurate is not what I would like it to be. I
will probably be exiting the stock today for the time
The stock is obviously cheap, but at this point it
still looks like it is going to get
Rather than say the stock is low, ask how much lower can
it go, and use that as a reason for staying
in(meaning it can't go much lower)I look at it that the
probability is at this point the stock still has not made a
good bottom and therefore I will be out for
From my perspective, that may change anytime next
week, the week after, or even during the trading day
today objectively speaking. But at this point the stock
still looks like it has further to go on the
I very well could be wrong, but for me the
probability of success is simply not there at this point, and
right or wrong that is what I(not necessarily you)have
to go with. That is, speaking from a short term
trading point of view rather than from an investment
point of view.
right around here. And then a rally above 12
before coming back down.
This would be the 4th
wave from the high in the 15's taking the shape of a
flat. A threewave rally from the first low at 11 3/16
to 11 15/16, then a 3 wave decline a little below 11
3/16 which should be completing today.
is accurate there will be a 5 wave rally carrying
above 11 15/16 before another decline sets in.
Looks like double barreled action in the industry
today. The termites and the woodpeckers are having a
The weekly on LPX should be in the
vicinity of a countertrend rally to the upside. When it
will rally and how far the rally will go is another
After telling falsehood after falsehood, you
simply continue telling falsehood after
People who have credibility do not continue time after
time to make false assumptions as you have done. They
realize and admit they made a mistake, (sometimes they
even apologize) and stop the falsehoods.
not going to waste my time responding to this any
further other than the following.
I did not own
the stock at 15, I tried to short it and missed the
fill by one tick. I did not bother with it again until
recently, where I have been in and out twice buying under
twelve and then selling at a profit both times because I
think the stock has not bottomed yet. If I am wrong,
then I am wrong.
Your post is littered with
other falsehoods as well.
To use your word, as
far as "judging" you is concerned I leave that to
each individual to figure it out.
aside from, but also including the facts that I
do not follow nor believe in astrology, nor do I
know enough about candlesticks to talk about
them(haramis are part of candlesticks).
Hey, at least
I put my analysis on the board, for both the wise
and the unwise!
Tubo55 says, "Mommy, mommy,
somebodies picking on me again"
Mommy says, "Oh tubo,
give me a break, what else is new!"
"but mommy those words really hurt"
"tubo, just remember sticks and stones will break my
bones but names will never hurt me"
"but mommy, that's not politically correct anymore"
I just looked at the monthly chart of LPX going
back to 1973 when the stock began trading. I saw
something I had not seen before.
For an investor it
could be paradise, but for a trader it is a
In a nutshell the stock
could be on the verge of 2-3 year rally at least. The
stock under this interpretation of Elliott would carry
back to at least the 20's and possibly to new all time
Under Elliott a bull market move advances in 5 waves
and the 4th wave(a corrective wave down) does not go
below the top of the first wave the vast majority of
the time. the 2nd wave is also a corrective wave
The first wave under this count peaked in 1983 at
$10.809. LPX would now be completing the 4th wave, which
would have begun in 1994, and so far the low is 10.812.
LPX does have the tendency where the fourth wave, on
short term charts as well, comes right down to the top
of the first wave. Whereas other stocks will have
the tendency to stay well above the top of the first
wave in their 4th wave corrections.
For a short
term trader, the short term charts are very iffy at
this point. Many short term traders are probably out
of the stock right now because the risk level on a
short term basis has not cleared up. Short term
outlooks do and can change rapidly. That is the nature of
short term trading. From my perspective, hopefully the
short term charts will soon say the risk level is
cleared up, before the stock vaults out of here.
Otherwise I may very well miss the move out of here,
assuming there is one.
Back to the subject line of
the post. An investor may very well buy some LPX at
this point, and leave some capital aside, so if the
stock does drop some more they can buy some more. The
worst case scenario I see for the stock is 7. I don't
think it will go that low, but none the less it is a
possibility under Elliott even if the probability of that
occurring is low.
Also an investor does not mind
holding the stock for a few months if not longer if
things do not pan out well right away whereas the short
term trader does mind.
Some might say, why
don't you just buy some right now and take a chance.
That may very well be the right thing to do in this
case, except Wall Street is littered with those who
have bought exactly in that manner and have watched
their stock go down dramatically.
One must have
a plan that works and have the discipline to stick
with it, whatever the components of the plan may
For myself, the plan I use works, but in this case
having the discipline to stick with it may cause me to
miss a nice move in LPX. If that happens, there will
be plenty of other opportunities. But hopefully, and
with God's help I will not miss the move in
Should be an interesting week coming up.
which increased the probability for the short
term bear case. Then 5 waves down were assembled from
the high of 11 7/8 on the hourly chart, which is also
bearish. If 11 7/8 is taken out on the upside that would
change the picture.
Looks like going below 11
before a good rally begins possibly next week.
Assuming this is a very short term high at about
11 13/16, LPX should not go below 11 9/16 during the
next down wave before going higher. If it does that
will increase the probability the bearish case for now