It is all a huge LOL time. All of you that joined the mob, it will rule for a while. Just like the other mob ruled to 70.
It's pretty simple really: Your all fools when the mob rules. Pick your poison.
A refresh cycle can only mean one thing: an older product that is due replacement. Apparently not compatable with the current silc products. It indicates to turb a large order for the upgrade cycle and the company apparently already knows when that cycle will hit based upon the guidance they never give. It almost appears as though the already have the upgrade order, but this particular company probably had a fire sale on the older products to clear inventory to lower end customers or first entrant with the upgrade coming and was probably priced in.
If it is the company I think it is, this would also jive with their cc, and their explanation for the one time lower margins they produced.
They missed a refresh cycle on a dead product. Few companies would even be ordering that product...now the new products are showing strong uptake. Missing the revenue from a large customer in 2 Q's is a mistake, but apparently they still grew in those 2Q's, and the shift to the new product...the longer term products is not missed.
Amazing the differing interpretations of where silc is currently.
Most of us longtimers have been here seen this...there is nothing different than the last times. except maybe for the future being more known to bee good than last times
Man do I hope you are right! I have a lot of 5 dollar bills I would like to turn into 100 dollar bills in 2 years then
Why would you perceie a huge drop for the whole year numbers? The lowest rev q was 20%+ over last year and you are forecasting a massive drop in whole year numbers. That guy needs to be an analyst!
Wow! Way off base, but thanks for the post. The exact same scenario played out oer the 2 year run to 70, and there was no revenue fall off. Only to those that don't understand the business model. For 20 years now, the buisness model has been explained on CC's. Since no one listened, you get what we hae right here, a failure to communicate. It is not managements failure, as Turb knows the business model. And the fear of staying short today sort of proves there was significant dumb money in the shares. Cleasing of that is a good thing.
Curious: What was your cost to borrow the shares?
Since that question will go unanswered, delete the poster from your memory.
Still long the core, and added in mid 40's. This Q will not determine anything long term. If a 20%+ up Q over Q in Q1 can cause this, then at least 2 successive Q's from here to return to faith. Turb think's 2 successive Q's are a walk in the park!
Plus the turmoil ending will create something...and probably within the 2 Q's. EOY, stunning difference of opinion will be seen in the pps.
Micro cap investing is always about patience. If you need, think you need, or may even possible need the money within 5 years, don't invest in the first place. How many 5 year periods can you find with this issue that has not give an investor a good exit point? And a good entry point? Heck, i guess you could say that about allmost all non mega caps.
I simply don't care hwat the pps is today. Never have never will...unless I want to sell or buy. I have already bought in the low 40's, so now just wait for the pendulum to swing on the 5 year scale.
Well, if 26% growth in Q1 is the new norml...turb can live with it..That would indicate 60+% growth for q4. IF one wants to correlate q4 to q1, one would have to correlate past q1 over q1 growth rates and forecast the similar historical growth rate for the big q which is q4 as well. Make that correlation and you will be buying more today!
You have been given an entire q to raise cash to take advantage of the future in this issue. This is why turb loves the news vaccuum. i only have to work 6 times a year in this issue. every q, and 2 other times which shall remain with turb.
What does the dow and this stock have in common? absolutely nothing. What does the anything other than what this company actually produces have to do with confidence? Nothing! That is the losers game in the market...assigning a reason to unreasonable happenings. I have held a core position here for over 18 years...because the future has never dimmed. I would bet my return over those 18 years will blow away any trader in this issue over the same era.
Israel launching counter attacks recently may have someting to do with the fear in the shares, but does it affect the outlook in reality? will it effect the sheckel? Will that change the numbers permanantly?
I will say I have never heard a comment from anyone on any conference call that was misleading in any sort of way. In fact...they flat out told us when a product was dying and their r@d department was not yet ready to replace it. That is the only conference call I have ever been on that I actually heard the bad news and the reason for it. That mistake has also yet to be repeated.
Overall, this is one of the 2 most integrity filled management teams I am invested in. The other one has two i's and two n's in it. Their statements are accurate...maybe just not in the time frame investors are thinking, hoping, or interpreting.
Better question: why will the same people that bought at 65 and above, and sold at 50 and below do the exact same thing when it happens again? Figure out what makes those people do it when they do it, and you have a winner!
But why Hapi? why would they want to pry shares from your hands? If there is no brightness in the future, why would anyone want to put pressur on the shares? It just doesn't make any sense. Satire included for free
Yes: I have a large core holding from many moons ago. I have bought shares in the 40's, and will trade out in the 60's. Unless of course something happens to make me want to keep them as core.
I only play a 15 dollar or more potential swing here. Anything less is just gambling. I don't see any reason the last 2 Q's won't be good, currnet Q could be in line to slightly above estimates. Changing product mix always leads to these type Q's. If it didn't, would the long term look good? I mean if the new product with lower margins until scale benefits were not selling, and the numbers stayed high due to a dying product type would be worse than what last Q indicated.
I have been through the last good Q of a dying product with this company 10 years ago, I know what to look for. And the future is still shining brightly. Just gotta patiently wait for it ... again. lol