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Silicom Ltd. Message Board

turbineflyer2000 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 10, 2014 2:59 PM Member since: Dec 30, 2004
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  • turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Sep 10, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    It is all a huge LOL time. All of you that joined the mob, it will rule for a while. Just like the other mob ruled to 70.

    It's pretty simple really: Your all fools when the mob rules. Pick your poison.

  • Reply to

    Turb - Question

    by jdberwanger Aug 25, 2014 10:16 PM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Aug 26, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    exactly mik: sorry it wasn't more clear after re reading it thanks for clearing it up!

  • Reply to

    Turb - Question

    by jdberwanger Aug 25, 2014 10:16 PM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Aug 26, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    My thoughts:

    A refresh cycle can only mean one thing: an older product that is due replacement. Apparently not compatable with the current silc products. It indicates to turb a large order for the upgrade cycle and the company apparently already knows when that cycle will hit based upon the guidance they never give. It almost appears as though the already have the upgrade order, but this particular company probably had a fire sale on the older products to clear inventory to lower end customers or first entrant with the upgrade coming and was probably priced in.

    If it is the company I think it is, this would also jive with their cc, and their explanation for the one time lower margins they produced.

  • Reply to

    So what if ZZ Sold his stock

    by i_love_pancakeman Jul 30, 2014 9:20 AM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Aug 19, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    They missed a refresh cycle on a dead product. Few companies would even be ordering that the new products are showing strong uptake. Missing the revenue from a large customer in 2 Q's is a mistake, but apparently they still grew in those 2Q's, and the shift to the new product...the longer term products is not missed.

    Amazing the differing interpretations of where silc is currently.

  • Reply to

    Board Quiet.....

    by sahmdars Aug 4, 2014 12:10 PM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Aug 4, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Most of us longtimers have been here seen this...there is nothing different than the last times. except maybe for the future being more known to bee good than last times

  • Reply to


    by ishort.stocks Jul 17, 2014 1:17 AM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jul 22, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    Man do I hope you are right! I have a lot of 5 dollar bills I would like to turn into 100 dollar bills in 2 years then

  • turbineflyer2000 by turbineflyer2000 Jul 22, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    The dumb money is back! This is a good indicator of future out performance

  • turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jul 21, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    Why would you perceie a huge drop for the whole year numbers? The lowest rev q was 20%+ over last year and you are forecasting a massive drop in whole year numbers. That guy needs to be an analyst!

  • Reply to

    Reason(s) for the downward price spiral

    by schneider356 Jul 19, 2014 12:58 AM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jul 21, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Wow! Way off base, but thanks for the post. The exact same scenario played out oer the 2 year run to 70, and there was no revenue fall off. Only to those that don't understand the business model. For 20 years now, the buisness model has been explained on CC's. Since no one listened, you get what we hae right here, a failure to communicate. It is not managements failure, as Turb knows the business model. And the fear of staying short today sort of proves there was significant dumb money in the shares. Cleasing of that is a good thing.

  • Reply to

    SILC and the Market.....

    by sahmdars Jul 20, 2014 12:31 PM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jul 21, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Curious: What was your cost to borrow the shares?

    Since that question will go unanswered, delete the poster from your memory.

  • Reply to

    Who of Longs Still here?

    by lokeren45 Jul 18, 2014 7:48 AM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jul 21, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    Still long the core, and added in mid 40's. This Q will not determine anything long term. If a 20%+ up Q over Q in Q1 can cause this, then at least 2 successive Q's from here to return to faith. Turb think's 2 successive Q's are a walk in the park!

    Plus the turmoil ending will create something...and probably within the 2 Q's. EOY, stunning difference of opinion will be seen in the pps.

  • Reply to

    Why not Microsoft lync in cloud

    by corruptbanker666 May 13, 2014 12:42 PM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jul 10, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    Buckled up and now seeing the need for shoulder straps!

  • Reply to

    The price of this stock is .....

    by sahmdars Jul 10, 2014 3:30 PM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jul 10, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    Micro cap investing is always about patience. If you need, think you need, or may even possible need the money within 5 years, don't invest in the first place. How many 5 year periods can you find with this issue that has not give an investor a good exit point? And a good entry point? Heck, i guess you could say that about allmost all non mega caps.

    I simply don't care hwat the pps is today. Never have never will...unless I want to sell or buy. I have already bought in the low 40's, so now just wait for the pendulum to swing on the 5 year scale.

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool out with article mentioning SILC

    by gam_65 Jun 30, 2014 6:49 PM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jul 1, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    Well, if 26% growth in Q1 is the new norml...turb can live with it..That would indicate 60+% growth for q4. IF one wants to correlate q4 to q1, one would have to correlate past q1 over q1 growth rates and forecast the similar historical growth rate for the big q which is q4 as well. Make that correlation and you will be buying more today!

    You have been given an entire q to raise cash to take advantage of the future in this issue. This is why turb loves the news vaccuum. i only have to work 6 times a year in this issue. every q, and 2 other times which shall remain with turb.

    What does the dow and this stock have in common? absolutely nothing. What does the anything other than what this company actually produces have to do with confidence? Nothing! That is the losers game in the market...assigning a reason to unreasonable happenings. I have held a core position here for over 18 years...because the future has never dimmed. I would bet my return over those 18 years will blow away any trader in this issue over the same era.

    Israel launching counter attacks recently may have someting to do with the fear in the shares, but does it affect the outlook in reality? will it effect the sheckel? Will that change the numbers permanantly?

  • Reply to

    Question for Turbine and Hindenburg

    by dachmeister4u Jun 27, 2014 9:18 AM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jun 30, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    Oh, and if it is required for some reason, I have been around for 18 years in this one

  • Reply to

    Question for Turbine and Hindenburg

    by dachmeister4u Jun 27, 2014 9:18 AM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jun 30, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    I will say I have never heard a comment from anyone on any conference call that was misleading in any sort of way. In fact...they flat out told us when a product was dying and their r@d department was not yet ready to replace it. That is the only conference call I have ever been on that I actually heard the bad news and the reason for it. That mistake has also yet to be repeated.

    Overall, this is one of the 2 most integrity filled management teams I am invested in. The other one has two i's and two n's in it. Their statements are accurate...maybe just not in the time frame investors are thinking, hoping, or interpreting.

  • turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jun 20, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Better question: why will the same people that bought at 65 and above, and sold at 50 and below do the exact same thing when it happens again? Figure out what makes those people do it when they do it, and you have a winner!

  • Reply to

    Silicom by the numbers-part 2

    by fish.andchips Jun 16, 2014 9:17 AM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jun 19, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    But why Hapi? why would they want to pry shares from your hands? If there is no brightness in the future, why would anyone want to put pressur on the shares? It just doesn't make any sense. Satire included for free

  • Reply to

    Silicom by the numbers-part 2

    by fish.andchips Jun 16, 2014 9:17 AM
    turbineflyer2000 turbineflyer2000 Jun 18, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Yes: I have a large core holding from many moons ago. I have bought shares in the 40's, and will trade out in the 60's. Unless of course something happens to make me want to keep them as core.

    I only play a 15 dollar or more potential swing here. Anything less is just gambling. I don't see any reason the last 2 Q's won't be good, currnet Q could be in line to slightly above estimates. Changing product mix always leads to these type Q's. If it didn't, would the long term look good? I mean if the new product with lower margins until scale benefits were not selling, and the numbers stayed high due to a dying product type would be worse than what last Q indicated.

    I have been through the last good Q of a dying product with this company 10 years ago, I know what to look for. And the future is still shining brightly. Just gotta patiently wait for it ... again. lol

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