Up until a few months ago, I'd at least have interest in hearing what Gartman had to say when it came to oil and the overall market. He seemed like a seasoned veteran who could keep his cool and objectivity, and would draw upon his decades of experience. And the quips between him and the Fast Money crew were mildly entertaining.
But along the lines of what you are saying, he started becoming more and more over-the-top in his statements, and I started finding his behaviors mirrored the over-emotional, quick-to-overreact, long-term-wisdom-lacking "investor" that we all try so hard to avoid being (but from time to time fail at of course). First I think he said he was totally freaked out by how the market was acting, the sky was falling, and he went totally to cash, a rookie mistake. A week or two later of course the market had bounced very nicely and he looked foolish. Then after his comments roughly a month or two ago about oil being like whale oil and that it was going to go to $10 and never come back and that $30 wasn't the bottom, etc... Well, now I don't even bother listening to him, I just keep fast-forwarding as I do through the commercials. He's truly become worthless.
Though I'm pretty sure he is making $$ starring as that older gentleman on a sofa calling Liberty regarding the one of many different catheters available! (Man what a horrible, over-played CNBC commercial!). Between those commercials and all the cialis/viagra stuff...
SDRL and LNCO shareholders both asked that same sort of question ("Where are you going to get such a high yield?") several months ago. They also made the same sort of statements about the dividend looking solid.
Just be careful, and IMO don't over-allocate until there's more clarity on the situation, especially since the dividend isn't currently sustainable.
Thanks for posting about the Fearnley website, it's been frustrating trying to gauge NAO's fleet status. I wish we could find out the dayrate amounts for the NAO fleet too. I disagree with the claims in their press releases that NAO is "very transparent."
It looks like they have 2 PSV's in need of contract (NAO Thunder, Blue Storm), two that have recently started short term contracts (Blue Viking, Blue Protector), and then no status on the remaining 4 (Blue Fighter, Blue Prosper, Blue Power, Blue Guardian)?
I'm concerned that Net Charter Revenue dropped 30% last quarter ($14.3m down to $9.89m), and also that the revenue reduction is as much or more than the 2 newbuilds would add even if fully chartered (for the current quarter they aren't). Even if the 2 newbuilds returned Net Revenue's back to the $14 million's in the current or future quarters, the dividend hasn't been sustainable at that level, I'd have to go check the numbers but I believe it was roughly falling $3mil - $3.5mil short per quarter.
In order to sustainably cover the dividend, right now it's feeling to me like it will take all remaining newbuilds (the last arriving September 2015) operating nearly full time and with no additional material drops in dayrates.