Gold standard or not is not the point, but excepting the Volker era, Fed machinations have been bad and getting worse it just so happen to start when it became possible to expand the Fed balance sheet without anything to back it up...In 2004 Greenspan encouraged people to take out adjustable rate mortgages, and in 2007 Bernanke said subprime was contained...I could go on and on, even back to 1987, the Greenspan put...Among many complaints I have, don't the PH.Ds over there realize that marginal business are being kept afloat rather than die like they should, meanwhile keeping them afloat hurts more viable entities? and the more common complaint about "moral hazard" the immediate gratification society brought to us by the Fed...Financial engineering through monetary policy or creative (but legal) accounting/money shuffling on the corporate side is no substitute for productive endeavors and it is resulting in jobs reports that are not quite what the headline numbers would have us believe...Ah, I feel better now, LOL.
HCP, one of the golden children of the H/C REIT space, has had one negative press release after the other, there are no heroes and I bet their books need more writedowns.
PGA, a very dark time for most as the only refuge was cash and government bonds, primarly...I just think the FED, Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen have kept us in the constant boom and bust cycle, always trying to front load growth and wrecking havoc with the price of money and creating one price discovery dislocation after an another...USELESS....A dark time in our history was Aug. 1971, thats when the perpetual games began and the have gotten worse.
There is NO chance of 2 rate hikes before year end...If that were to happen, REITs will be the safe haven group by Q1 16 with the least damage, even as significant as it will be, IMHO.
the stock market (broad averages) will be dropping materially soon...I have seen these deep value stocks go down/underperform inexplicably twice before 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, so I think a 50% cash position is warranted...As long as SIR doesn't underperform its closest peers such as LXP, that's about all I can ask as there seems to be this fear of higher rates, even long term rates, irrational I believe...Where is the economic growth to support a continued rise in rates?...Other developed country rates are comparatively lower with also a challenged currency...How are US rates going to maintain an upward push?...IMHO...Regarding RMR, they may still have voting supremacy, but in the transaction they are giving up 48% economic interest, that said, I would rather this deal not happen and have an activist take it over if continued share price underperformance, but absent of that, the valuation here is beyond belief, we are talking a BBB S&P rating, with low payout ratio, I am just stunned at this price and so was Lakewood several points higher...Blackman need to cull the dregs for a capital gain, AT LEAST to get leverage down a couple of points, maybe we can get Moody's to get their rating up to the S&P one.
Pismire, I just read Wells Fargo's comments today and their analyst "thinks" that the Adkins leased out at 200K and subsequent renewals may be even less...So I guess it is all about just keeping the rigs working so someone else can't and our competitors get scrapped first?...Still at neutral rating, RIG and SDRL underperform.
I can't remember the REIT that was being discussed on Seeking Alpha, but some mutual fund manager was discussing a particular one and was quite pleased with himself as he was buying it with a forward projected multiple of 12...Now SIR at its current price given about a 2.80 forward FFO is around 8 and even AFFO would be close to that...I wonder how long 2009/crisis pricing will exist?
LOL...I have total confidence you not an employee nor have any affliliation with RMR/Portnoys or their proxies.
The Portnoy way of running a public company is quite widespread...It is just a matter of finding a place where you feel less violated than another (anybody in techland feel the pain of stock options being handed out like candy?)...I can complain about an endless amount of things, starting with macro items like QE and ZIRP down to Portnoy running RMR controlled REITs like a monarchy.
I wish Lakewood would not have sold out, but obviously in the short term, at least, they made the right choice.
Back on topic, I love to see a transcript of the deliberations with the independent trustees regarding this...Does anybody know what the net profit margin is on an RMR type of business?
PGA/GTW, either of you ever listen to a CWH CC headed by Adam Portnoy?...Well, nothing beats that kind of arrogance...It was hilarious, John Guinee of Stifel absolutely skwered Adam Portnoy (Junior) on a mid to late 2012 call, basically he was in disbelief about the lack of regard for shareholders, I wish I could remeber Guinee's colorful wording and especially his tone of voice...Junior was really PO'd at him...not long after Corvex/relational made the play and no more Junior blathering on.
After reading the Barron's piece, it appears Barclays is more concerned about the quality of the semis that NE has and their ability to be recontracted...less so on the price of oil as they think oil going up is a bigger negative as that prevents retirements.
Let's hope Barclays is not right with their $13 target...I would say at that price they are looking for $45-$50 Brent again.
xcranch, 48%, 49%, 59%, it doesn't matter as historical owners of RMR will have "Google" style voting control, 10-1....The one thing RMR points to is that the implied price of RMR is only 1.8 times revenue which is FAR less than peers...Again, we need to see an S-1, like what was sent out for the CCIT deal...SIR was lucky, they made that deal work because they bottom ticked the interest rate cycle, their prospectus was aggressive...The RMR shares are most likely going to pop in early days/months trading, RMR always sets up their offspring to succeed at first.
I was referring to the dramatic outperformance of HPT as compared to SIR and SNH...I see an upgrade of HPT by some no name firm, but so what.
I have no idea why SIR was down today but the volume was low and it still closed only 1 1/2% of what it was at on Friday, hardly the fate of SNH...SNH had more like capitulation type volume today...Very bizarre.