Bagholders?...You mean like the shareholders prior to Corvex/Relational arriving?...Do you think the stock would be where it is now without them? 10 bucks higher than it was before.
I don't know where RMR could hide, surely the same fate awaits GOV as did CWH, and then after that SIR...I am going to speculate that there will be better behavior at the margin, just enough to stay in power longer than otherwise would be the case, IMHO...Ebb and flow of an unloved stock is good way to sum it up absent bigger volume, IMHO.
Wes, they have only bought 2 million shares as of last report...I would not be so quick to be judge jury and executioner...IMHO.
Point taken on the vote, although it is still a long shot...GOV could be vulnerable which would make SIR vulnerable, but that is speculation...I do know that the stock is trading at 30% below the most conservative scenario laid out by Lakewood Capital based on Q1 14 NOI, 6% cap rate for HI and 8% for mainland...Institutional ownership changes as of 9/30 does not indicate anything adverse either and the stock hasn't moved too much since quarter end.
GTW, the deal is binding pending the shareholder vote and there will be no re-pricing (all per Blackman on the CC), SIR vote due to captive shares is a lock...I don't think there is enough volume to come to any firm conclusions, and its perhaps tax loss selling...IMHO
NE has a material debt maturity next year (I believe it was 300 mill), so unless they are rolling it, there will be debt reduction.
GTW, if CWH would h#$%$ve stopped #$%$t the l#$%$st H#$%$w#$%$ii purch#$%$se in 2005 (HRP #$%$t the time) #$%$nd forgone the #$%$ bought #$%$fter it (re#$%$lizing the m#$%$rket w#$%$s frothy, especi#$%$lly suburb#$%$n, but therein lies the conflict), #$%$nd properly recycled c#$%$pit#$%$l by timely pruning the de#$%$dweight, it would h#$%$ve been #$%$ whole different outcome...I still own SIR #$%$nd to #$%$ lessor extent SNH, with my r#$%$d#$%$r on.
When the small to medium size frackers try to float more debt or renew expiring debt it will be amazing how quickly we no longer don't have too much oil...Junk bond market will not be quite so inviting going forward for these marginal players...Rigs are already going idle, but it's a process and will take time to fully play out...IMHO.
svtech, RDC would be my second choice after NE, I have owned it before...NE has some longer term contracts (the stable Shell relationship) that RDC doesn't have and a much greater percentage of revenue are from deep water rigs, plus no insider buying at all on RDC, only selling...RDC will have some exposure to rates...but I still call it my second choice.
How was that dividend consistency with HRP then CWH under RMR?...Consistently down...CWH was outperformed by nearly every other REIT including the dreaded ones focused on suburban office.
I am long SIR and SNH (knowing the risks), but your RMR pumping is unfounded based on the facts.
Debt will be paid anyway as there is a maturity later next year as already discussed...300 mill, do you remember?...we were actually conversing about it.
Pismire, I should have added that apparently the salvage value exceeds the book carrying value...I think we must assume the rig will never work again based on what was said on the call.
I appreciate your expanded commentary...I am factoring in approval by CCIT shareholders and a rubber stamp on the SIR side with so many captive shares...This is not a disaster as it appears rates will remain favorable, however, I will still vote no due to the GOV purchase of SIR shares.
hwan, I thought you agreed with my calculations last week that there was enough cash flow to reduce debt and buy back stock, do you like to complain just for sport?
Doc, please tell me what ails you?...Last I checked NE is outperforming most of their peers, and the price of oil was down, what were you expecting to happen this morning?
This is a volatile stock, this is not an FDIC insured product.