Shorts have experienced run ups before and waited it out. EBIX ran to 37 early last year and short interest never fell below 8M. 41 isn't much higher, the question is when do shorts capitulate? So far they have been able to maintain positions.
I've been in this stock for 6 years now and don't think I've ever seen short interest fall below 8M. This to me is the number to look for, if short interest falls below 8M then there is definitely capitulation finally happening.
Part of me has also wondered if some of he short activity might just be hedging by owners to offset risk from being acquired. There was speculation this was the case a while back, if so there may never be a short squeeze because the shorts are really hedges offset by ownership. Frankly the continuous 8M short number as always looked suspect to me.
Well this is exactly what Kinder has said he would do. Pay internally for projects and then use all excess cash flow to lower debt. That is it. No buy back and no reinstating the dividend until debt is back down, that is 2 years at the current rate.
Then everyone is looking at a very large distribution bump.
If TOO gets through this liquidity gap issue, buyers over the past month are looking at 50% yields on cost by 2018. Once TOO makes an announcement that funding has been found (and they have many options to pick from based on the last CC) expect this stock to explode.
Listen to the last call they discuss this. Once a rig is setup the marginal cost is low, so e&p companies will keep producing at this level. There are also large shutdown costs, so they will even run below marginal costs for a time if they think prices won't stay here forever. Also these sites are not like shale basins, they last for decades pumping continues on the same spit for many years.
If oil stay here for many years then new offshore will stop. But the existing sites will keep going, too will still make money just not grow.
If the units are in the mid teens in 2 years YOU CAN GET ALMOST THE SAME DEAL right now by buying
Exactly, I more than doubled up at $4.5, that is still coming out ahead of Kelcy. I'll take it.
Exactly, they are executing a DRIP at today's prices.
Well ETE does need the cash. ETE could either eliminate the distribution, sell new shares, or both. I personally would rather they slash the ETE distribution for 2 years (as KMI) and use the saved cash to pay off WMB purchase.
But if they opt to sell new shares fine, most of my holdings came at the $4.x range, so I'm ahead of Kelcy on price.
Everyone here had an opportunity to buy cheaper than management, most didn't take it.
Don't forget the contractual backlog with their new projects coming online soon that will bring cash flow to $3.5 per share. TOO is still trading at an expected yield north of 30% in 2 years for the patient investor. Once they get through this funding gap the last month will look to be a ridiculous price.
Agreed, management has done all the right things to address this environment in order to wait it out. That is all I need. Their position seems to be that since they've structured NGL to not need to go to the capital markets at all in 2016, why bother communicating this early in the year. I am fine with that, to me it makes a buying opportunity. My other two "distressed" picks APLP and TOO are both up a solid amount from the lows and I am kicking myself I didn't add more. Well I can add more to NGL.
That debt has paid for multiple projects that are fully contracted out, these projects will take DCF up to the $900M per year range by 2018. That debt will easily be covered by operations. Oh and TOO will be yielding well over $2/share by then, possibly $3, long-term holders who bought this crash in TOO are looking at what will be one of their best buys ever. I am only kicking myself for only putting 5% in at the $3 a share range. Should have loaded the boat.
More important than the contracts are the economics of offshore drilling. Once a site is dug and setup, the marginal costs to pump are low, plus the costs to stop are high (you have to cap it 2 miles underwater). So once one of TOO's platforms starts to operate on a site it will keep operating until the site is unproductive, no matter what the oil price is. Their cancellation late last year was not due to oil prices, it was due to the fact the site was barely pumping 6K barrels a day and was unproductive at any oil price. TOO has a huge backlog of projects ready to go. Anyone selling under $15 is insane.
Actually they made a solid profit on the deal they made in December, which closed their funding needs for 2016.
But nice try.
You will lose money in anything if you buy and then panic in 3 days.
ETE is a virtual lock for massive gains for long-term holders. Buy ETE and walk away for 2-3 years at least. Anyone doing anything else loses money to the real traders (which you are not).
Once TOO announces a funding arrangement to close their liquidity gap (such as a simple lease-back swap on an existing ship) the stock will jump and you will never see sub $9 again. The funding liquidity gap is the only reason TOO is trading at these absurd levels because it creates a BK risk.
In 6 months or a year any price below $10 is going to look like a steal, I wouldn't wait.
It does not have to be a large player. Someone who wanted to allocate $5M to MCEP would cause the price to rise more than it has the past few days. The market cap was
Add no IDRs to that on the equity side and equity still trading at a low yield, and EPD has one of the lowest cost of funding in the sector, this is why they will continue to grow and capture any upside of US based energy investments.
I own a bit of NGL at much higher prices, and have bought a lot more at these prices.
That said I would they halve the dist at this point and use the cash to pay down debt and buyback shares, rather than selling off assets. Buying shares is the most accretive investment at these prices.
My worry thought is since management has already started to receive IDRs that they are too hesitant to cut the dist since that would eliminate their payouts. And so they will lever the company more and more.
The big bet is Grand Mesa, if that contributes nicely then NGL is a steal at these prices. If not it was a big waste of debt.
Bringing in a more senior team who already knows how to work with each other well and has confidence in each other. Yeah, that sounds horrible. Go away with your nonsense.
These changes to me explain why the silence during the Q4 results. They are probably building an updated plan with a newer finance team and want to put that together before communicating. I've seen this many times before.
NGL's assets and cash flow are weaker at these oil prices, but the business overall is very secure and trading at stupid low ratios to expected 2017/18 cash flow.
Out of the 8 (soon to be 7) upstream MLPs, MCEP is my favorite due to their low cost structure and low debt profile. I wish the stock stayed lower for longer so I could have accumulated more though.
Outside of the MLP space, what other E&P firms are people looking at that are similar to MCEP? i.e. E&Ps that are small, have low extraction costs, low debt and who's stocks have been trashed along with everyone else's.