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Ebix Inc. Message Board

twfry_2001 77 posts  |  Last Activity: May 2, 2016 5:45 PM Member since: Sep 20, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Street says no thanks TOO dividend

    by sync2l12 Apr 29, 2016 10:44 AM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 May 2, 2016 5:45 PM Flag

    Any short term traders who got in at the $2-3 low are probably exiting now that TOO has had a nice run that seems to have stalled out.

    Once that selling is done momentum can continue to the upside. TOO is still trading at absurdly low EV to 2017/18/19 EBITDA numbers.

  • Reply to

    Will the full dividend ever return ?

    by sync2l12 Apr 26, 2016 12:05 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 28, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    Well their growth has stopped, at these prices no one is initiating new projects. But that is fine, TOO has new projects coming online through 2017 and then will spend a year or two fixing the balance sheet. By they time that is done prices will likely have received and TOO will be in a better position to capitalize on that and start a new round of capex investment.

  • Reply to

    Will the full dividend ever return ?

    by sync2l12 Apr 26, 2016 12:05 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 28, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    All that capex is going towards large projects that grow cash flow. In a few years TOO will be throwing off more than $3 a unit. They will use that to pay down debt and then resume increased distributions, by the time we get there the stock will be much higher. This is a buy and wait play because you can't predict when the market will move but know it will. Oh and you still are paided a very secure and nice yield while you wait.

  • Reply to

    Bought 1000 shares in an IRA earlier at $4.91,

    by an2gram Apr 27, 2016 10:33 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 28, 2016 2:25 AM Flag

    The $1000 UBTI limit will not hit you with 1000 shares. Capital gains and distributions do not count toward the $1000 limit, only unearned income as reported on the K-1 does. ETE will show you as having negative UBTI for years....

  • $20 very quickly if it is, otherwise we're back below $10

  • Reply to

    wells fargo

    by jim_hairball Apr 26, 2016 12:33 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 27, 2016 12:24 PM Flag

    I've followed Wells' research for years, what I've learned is they essentially just repeat what management says and rely on management for all their numbers, there is no independent thought. The above is simply what NGL management forecasted.

    The problem with this is when management is widely optimistic, just look at what Wells' forward estimates were this Jan. They were predicting high $3.xx DCF for FY2017 and $4.xx DCF for FY2018. Wells was off by almost 50%. Frankly after following them for a long time, I've learned to just use them as a consolidated source of what management says, and then to do my own research in selected areas that look interesting. But isn't that what a paid research analyst is suppose to do?

  • Reply to

    Still getting paid 20% yield on cost

    by twfry_2001 Apr 25, 2016 9:03 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 27, 2016 12:17 PM Flag

    It's not a trade, it is an absurdly low entry point for a long term holding. It shows how ridiculous the price became (and still is) for a stable payout. Look across various sectors from BDCs, REITs, etc and nothing this stable is available at yields 6%, let alone 20%. Everyone here was bashing ETP at the bottom not understanding the cash flow stability it offers.

  • Reply to

    Other low cost E&P's like MCEP?

    by twfry_2001 Apr 7, 2016 1:13 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 25, 2016 9:30 PM Flag

    In addition to PDPYF (which is already up) BIREF looks to be a fairly similar story. Strong operational focus with declining costs, matched with massive growing reserves and room to ramp production when it makes sense. BIREF has opportunities for multi layers to their horizontal drilling program, meaning they can drill new horizontal lines from the same vertical hole over the same location. This 2nd or 3rd run is obviously very affordable as much of the infrastructure is already in place.

    At this point PDPYF, BIREF, Granite Oil, and BTE are a reasonable but sizable portion of my holdings, will wait for the eventual 2018/19 recovery now...

  • Reply to

    This Poney...

    by jtbc5000 Mar 3, 2016 7:59 AM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 25, 2016 9:06 PM Flag

    Starting to move up. I too am in this for the long haul. Just wait till the eventual energy recovery and $90 oil with $5 gas, the FCF in 2019 with that will be amazing and more than my purchase price. Only put 3% in but it's my largest E&P play, which I put in more.

  • while I wait for the eventual 5x capital gain. 1.75x gain so far and willing to wait years since the yield is amazing. Thanks again shorts

  • Reply to

    How will this be greeted by the market?

    by prof.williamdyer Apr 21, 2016 7:40 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 22, 2016 11:46 AM Flag

    NGL today offers a super secure yield of 11% with guaranteed dist growth, this is still a steal and I'm not adding only because of the size of my position. What else can you buy with this income stream? By the time you will want to get in again we'll be over $30

  • Reply to

    How will this be greeted by the market?

    by prof.williamdyer Apr 21, 2016 7:40 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 22, 2016 1:55 AM Flag

    I think the IDRs start at 1.56, if so that means management fully cut the IDRs while preserving the distribution as much as possible for unit holders. I like that and will take it.

  • Reply to

    How will this be greeted by the market?

    by prof.williamdyer Apr 21, 2016 7:40 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 21, 2016 8:13 PM Flag

    We are looking at 14% yield at today's closing price with expected growth to the mid 20% range if you assume just their current growth projects and future raises to the 1.3-1.5x coverage range.

    On top of this NGL is exposed to oil prices, we learned this through the current cycle. NGL's forecasted EBITDA numbers assume today's oil prices. When oil hits $80 again in 2 years NGL's cash flow will increase as well, that brings NGL to an expected 30% yield in a few years time.

    All with strong coverage and a solid balance sheet that is paying down debt, plus extra money for funding growth into the next cycle.

    I don't know where we end tomorrow, but it will still be a buy at the end of the day.

  • Reply to

    Conference Call Takeaways

    by stillwondering7312 Apr 21, 2016 3:29 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 21, 2016 4:09 PM Flag

    Essentially KMI is no longer an MLP but a high growth dividend aristocrat, I can live with that. BTW their 4x coverage will fund quite a lot of growth

  • Reply to

    Compounding distributions

    by igsteri Apr 16, 2016 8:54 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 20, 2016 4:48 PM Flag

    That debt has paid for assets under construction that come online in 6 months, assets which are expected to generate $160 in DCF. You have to put that incremental cash into the calculation if you are going to add the debt. Also that $450M number is what you get with the worst possible market conditions, the same assets will generate a lot more in 2017/18 after oil recovers.

  • Reply to

    credit to RR

    by ncc53 Apr 18, 2016 5:19 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 20, 2016 11:30 AM Flag

    I am in the same position, was #$%$ when sold out to gs for $20 and then more so when it crashed to $9. Loaded up to make ebix my largest position by far at the bottom and held long. But then started selling a year and a half ago, by $40 I was down to %20 of my original very large stake.

    Am thinking of finally closing the position, overall could have made a lot more if I held to now but still did quite well. And given this stocks history another buying opportunity could be around the corner....

  • Reply to

    Compounding distributions

    by igsteri Apr 16, 2016 8:54 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 19, 2016 2:03 AM Flag

    Debt to EBITDA is no where close to 9x, try the 4.x range

  • Reply to

    WMB playing hard ball with K Warren

    by pjhatbpi Apr 14, 2016 5:32 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 15, 2016 5:02 PM Flag

    Exactly, OPEC is only 1/3 of the market and will now run at max production. That means oil prices will be determined by the rest of the market producing firms around the world. This is a new environment that we haven't had before.

    It will mean lower lows to oil prices since OPEC will no longer support prices, but also higher highs since OPEC will not have spare capacity to turn on during shortages.

    We are going to see a cyclical 6-8 year oil price for now on. Play the cycle and you will do well. Most people will just watch CNBC and Cramer bash oil when it is already at the bottom and praise oil when it is already at the top.

  • Reply to

    $9.30! Are you kidding me! OMG!

    by iamthepotus Apr 13, 2016 3:18 PM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 13, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    Wait until oil recovers in a year and ETE starts to grow the dist again. It will easily pass its ATH and hit $40 in two years. Wish I bought more at $4, only doubled up there should have quadrupled up

  • Reply to

    This stock will not move because

    by galaxysportsinc Apr 7, 2016 8:39 AM
    twfry_2001 twfry_2001 Apr 12, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    Most of their debt is in the form of bonds which are not due for years. The banks are not involved in that and bondholders have little say.

    The banks only control the credit line, which is very secure, no issues there from a banker perspective.

    Once oil gets back to the $60 range (which it will this year) NGL is going to look like a steal at these prices. I think they will make it through without ever cutting the distribution.

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