SPDR S&P Homebuilders Message Board
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Seems like you answered your own question at the end, with "the consolidation wave that pretty much eliminated competition"...Not irrational...for years price wars and then the fear of PC's collapse brought the HDD industry to the miniscule valuations we saw in the recent past...then the consolidation, the Atlas Shrugged effect from Thai floods, increasing evidence of better demand and pricing discipline in the wake of Cloud build-out, leading to free cash flow yields that encouraged retiring shares, reducing debt and boosting dividends. What is irrational, in retrospect, is that twenty-odd sellside analysts are paid high six-figure salaries to totally miss this dynamic.
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why you say stx to good short long stx and ride like helicopter rise above $40
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According to Yahoo, only 3 of 25 analysts had STX as a buy heading into yesterday's report. Needham upgraded this a.m. (hopefully not a contra-indication)...
Here is a favorite blurb of mine, as an example of incompetence and misjudgement:
From 4/18:
"Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) and Western Digital (NYSE:WDC): Citigroup (NYSE:C) says that hard disk drive shares are poised for a pullback, following strong Q1 results. First quarteroptimismis already priced into the shares and hopes for PC industryrecoveryare waning says Citi, which has a Sell rating on both Seagate and Western Digital." -
May see that low $40's sooner than I hoped. So, no - you were wrong in even the short term.
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STX WILL BEAT Wishber number EPS by 1.24 and REVENUE $4.50 BILLION
by alicante_2001us •May 1, 2013 3:31 PMget a grip - it will all be okay
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I hear you. The bull case is that its below tangible book and 10-12X EPS, with that nice yield. Sooner or later this will be sold. If there is no new crisis in the next couple years its not a bad name to buy and hold as the management either turns around the non-performers and therefore profitibility, or throws in the towel and sells at a modest premium to book value. Anyway, that is how I see it. I think I will add to shares if/when it slips back to ~$15
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Looks like they reported after the close (ydy) on 4/29, but its hard to tell as I can only find a couple odd press releases that Yahoo seems to not have under headlines, but can be found at their website. $0.38 (v $0.34 last year)....17 divi. Details are scanty to say the least. Hard to find a stock where there is literally no shares traded on the day after an EPS report. AAPL it ain't.
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Does anyone know the reasoning for CSFB or any other downgrade
by twhite113 •Apr 26, 2013 7:56 AMI hear you...I'm a two year vet of the STX wars.
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after the EPS release...? I have yet to read any blurb that gives a hint of what the bearish analysts' thoughts are...valuation/PC slowdown/price erosion...what?
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oh well...what's $100K or so?
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didn't even last seconds
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Citi downgraded Western Digital Corp. (Nasdaq: WDC) from Buy to Sell.
by nusaiba •Apr 25, 2013 12:01 PMmay as well burn your money as follow the analysts that cover WDC/STX - they have been wrong for a couple years now and they are so warped by the past they can never evaluate the changing realities. Literally they are analyzing this space as though there was still only the PC end market and dozens of cutthroat competitors instead of a duopoly selling to a variety of growing end-users.
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"And Citigroup increased its price target on shares of Western Digital (WDC) to $37 as cost controls will boost margins. Citi also increased its EPS estimates in its report. Shares of WDC were on the move, gaining 7.2% so far."
Hopefully the lemming reads this and is shamed. -
Hey BOD - sell this turkey and retire.
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Meanwhile I bet all these sellside shops have had "table-pounding strong buys" on AAPL:
Jan 30, 2013 Barclays Downgrade Equal Weight Underweight
Sep 9, 2012 Argus Downgrade Buy Hold
Aug 19, 2012 Stifel Nicolaus Downgrade Buy Hold
Jul 5, 2012 Robert W. Baird Downgrade Outperform Neutral
May 28, 2012 Barclays Downgrade Overweight Equal Weight -
From Bloomberg: " Fast-casual eateries like Chilango, Tortilla, and Benito#$%$ are expanding in London and making forays outside the city, to regions where beans are served on toast and the Cornish pasty is the handheld food of choice.
Their growth stands in contrast to Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG), the U.S. burrito chain that attributes sluggish sales in its six London outposts to a lack of awareness of its brand and Mexican food in general. That’s rubbish, says Simon Stenning, a director at restaurant industry researcher Allegra Strategies in London. He says Chipotle’s higher prices -- 6.95 pounds ($10.60) for most offerings -- and stark decor are turnoffs for Londoners, who prefer a more upbeat atmosphere alongside their achiote braised chicken burritos.
“Chipotle is a bit too serious -- it’s a harsh environment and not engaging,” Stenning said. “We know they have an incredible story about their food, but you go to the store and you can’t tell.” - Reply to
WOW!!! $10.09............TERRIBLE!! I TOLD YOU THEY WOULD HALT TRADING DIDNT I??
by sheepskinner10 •Apr 23, 2013 4:35 PMyo momma...that's right, I said yo momma
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should be able to rally near here...yawn
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Nice. That's putting your money where your mouth is...what is that $4M+ at risk! What is your thesis?