but it can't hurt...even if this just helps psychologically:
I like your swagger - you're the Donald Trump of the message board. I was short/long puts Z for a long time, but covered a few weeks ago, in large part because I feared a squeeze, and expected a seasonal bounce which never materialized. Just watching for now.
MS downed to sell (WDC to hold) on Cloud spending risk from China, lower margins, XRTX drag. There is a synopsis on Benzinga. New PT goes from $49 to $34.
I haven't seen the note, so I am not sure of their reasoning, but never a good sign when a bulge bracket firm puts a sell on a one-time momo name. Ouch.
I remember their endless pumping of this dog, as well as many other one-time high fliers...I see they still have this disclosure: "The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of 3D Systems and Stratasys"
My point, do your own thinking.
The way it usually works is the IPO stock, priced at $20, goes directly to the institutions (80-90%), as well as "friends and family" of the company (10-20%). The underwriters have discretion about which institutions get the IPO stock, and naturally they reward their best clients with the biggest allocations. Usually the company going public has a lot of input about which funds get the most stock...they tend to want mutual funds and pension plans to get the IPO stock over hedge funds...the underwriters have a 15% over-allotment they can exercise within 30 days...their commissions are imbedded in the $20 price, and that is usually about 6% of the $20 price.
I don't get the valuation any more. Tax software, okay. But the high multiple seems to be owing to their small business growth lines which are and will become more competitive and commoditized. Why the 40X (non-GAAP)? Good will write offs?...isn't there some sort of investigation related to people ripping off tax refunds using these guys' software? What am I missing?
I mean, come on...they are only now, at the lows, "saying it faces tough challenges in its two largest gaming markets, the U.S. and Macau."???
They either are playing games or they are clueless....but either way people should not take them seriously at face value.
Yeah, could go either way it looks like from the small after market activity. I'm surprised they talked some about the mold issues, and now they are explaining to analyst their accounting. So far the call is more bearish in tone than I would have guessed from their underwriters.
So, bottom line misses by ~40%, top line shows 40% growth, but full year dropping to 30% sales growth, and you think this is undervalued? The short interest is through the roof, but I don't think it's retail because it's been impossible to borrow. It's hard to say what will happen between the lock up expiration and the short interest. I also think this is probably owned by plenty of institutions that also own WFM and SFM which are suddenly falling apart...bias might be to sell first and reexamine down the road. Not trying to be obnoxious here and I do have a few puts, but even if this goes up, it shouldn't. Getting on the call.
Glad to see there are others out here who wonder how that guy has a job, let alone on Wall Street, let alone on TV too. You can just see in his eyes that he really doesn't know what he is talking about...ever. He parrots some odd blend of things he hears from other sources. I swear a few weeks ago he said on TV that he sold his whole book and a 40-50% drop was imminent. Now ...now, he can't get enough TWTR? huh?
Book is some measurement of a floor, but 75-80% of their assets are goodwill and intangibles. Especially in this environment, those items would be heavily discounted by anyone looking to acquire. Tangible book (including cash on hand) is $600M or so. Eventually, they will likely have to take impairment charges on any under-performing assets they have bought and booked as good will.
If the $ actually continues to weaken v Euro, won't this get double hammered?