I don't get the valuation any more. Tax software, okay. But the high multiple seems to be owing to their small business growth lines which are and will become more competitive and commoditized. Why the 40X (non-GAAP)? Good will write offs?...isn't there some sort of investigation related to people ripping off tax refunds using these guys' software? What am I missing?
I mean, come on...they are only now, at the lows, "saying it faces tough challenges in its two largest gaming markets, the U.S. and Macau."???
They either are playing games or they are clueless....but either way people should not take them seriously at face value.
Yeah, could go either way it looks like from the small after market activity. I'm surprised they talked some about the mold issues, and now they are explaining to analyst their accounting. So far the call is more bearish in tone than I would have guessed from their underwriters.
So, bottom line misses by ~40%, top line shows 40% growth, but full year dropping to 30% sales growth, and you think this is undervalued? The short interest is through the roof, but I don't think it's retail because it's been impossible to borrow. It's hard to say what will happen between the lock up expiration and the short interest. I also think this is probably owned by plenty of institutions that also own WFM and SFM which are suddenly falling apart...bias might be to sell first and reexamine down the road. Not trying to be obnoxious here and I do have a few puts, but even if this goes up, it shouldn't. Getting on the call.
Glad to see there are others out here who wonder how that guy has a job, let alone on Wall Street, let alone on TV too. You can just see in his eyes that he really doesn't know what he is talking about...ever. He parrots some odd blend of things he hears from other sources. I swear a few weeks ago he said on TV that he sold his whole book and a 40-50% drop was imminent. Now ...now, he can't get enough TWTR? huh?
Book is some measurement of a floor, but 75-80% of their assets are goodwill and intangibles. Especially in this environment, those items would be heavily discounted by anyone looking to acquire. Tangible book (including cash on hand) is $600M or so. Eventually, they will likely have to take impairment charges on any under-performing assets they have bought and booked as good will.
If the $ actually continues to weaken v Euro, won't this get double hammered?
I didn't have a chance to listen or read the WDC call yet, but from the two stocks reactions today it would seem the street is viewing any WDC disappointment as more troubling to STX...or is it just an aberration? Frustrating
Huh...on point (4), how do you reconcile ""Same-store sales increased 4.2% at company-owned restaurants and 1.8% at franchised locations for the first four weeks of the second quarter of 2015 compared to 5.7% and 4.4%, respectively, for the same period last year."?
If you are right, that's a hell of a drop off.
So, AMZN and MSFT are doing well providing cloud-based business services, etc...and there is no shortage of other existing and potential players in CRM's space(ORCL, IBM, WDAY, SPLK, SAP)...why exactly does Salesforce get the valuation it currently gets? Do they have some sort of competitive moat that will allow for much higher margins, or what?
I don't get it...but if they see things regressing to that point, or anywhere near it, this should be sold...I suppose it's just conservative guidance, but then it's guidance is meaningless.
Not going to quibble on tangible (you're likely right) and I did read Hendricks saying they are almost out of powder with conventional buybacks, but he also said to look for a dutch tender (again) or a dividend in the future. Meantime, they could get lucky and lead a deal or two.
That said, my advise about a trade may have been wrong because they may have their hands tied about day to day buybacks as you said. Picked up some shares on the open though that are up ~3%.
If you only buy maybe 1K or so shares down here after ER, but well below TBV....wait for the company to buy the stock back, it's been a lay-up for a couple years.