CSIQ had 2700MW of cell capacity in H1 2016. They are adding 1200MW in H2 2016. Best case scenario is they have lost 30% of their cell capacity worst case nearly 50% of their cell capacity. I see no way that this does not have a material impact. Yes they can try and squeeze extra production out of the other CN plant and try and ramp Malaysia faster but the rest required is likely 80% of the lost capacity that will be higher priced outsourced cells.
I have never heard of a company that loses 1/3 of it's key manufacturing capacity say they will not be impacted by it. Can you name a company that has ever lost 1/3 of their manufacturing of a key component that did not have their business impacted? Please name 1.
By the way, I do not know if this is coincidence or not but the factory destroyed was 1.2GW which s what they were planning to bring online in H2 2016. Did they just lose all their second half capacity that was coming online or did they lose the capacity brought online in 2015?
The factory was a GCL CSIQ joint venture. GCL has already donated $1.5M USD to the relief effort.
Yes the PR was an early pass at relaying news with minimal impact. What I like to say is wordsmithing to push the positives. In reality people need to research the videos and picture available. The area is in devastation and the destruction is quite sobering.. The factories are not going to be operating any time this year.
The pictures and videos of the area show massive devastation and destruction Those that have died may the rest in peace. Those that are injured may they get well, those that are still missing, may they be found in good health.
Well last time they had a fire in a small storage section of a Cell factory back in Q1 of 2014. They indicated that it would impact the business either. Then the Q1 ER came out and they stated that the fire impacted margins by 1% $5Million. This was a "small" fire in a storage facility. Reports are the tornado has destroyed the factory and the Barracks where the employees lived and some employees are in the the hospital grateful to be alive. That is far more severe than a small fire in a storage area.I would expect an impact on margins of 1-2% for the next several quarters from this incident. That could cut net earnings by 25-30%. Run some numbers with $0.03-$0.04 added costs on 275MW of cells and tell me what you come up with as a hit on earnings.
They are looking at 267MW of cell capacity per Q not producing in Q3 and probably longer
I will add that there are concerns that there may be other bankruptcies in the near future and that these may require writedowns on the AR again as well as the project sales in China being lower due to lack of FIT.
forward guidance is week on ASP and margins. Suggestion f 5-10% ASP drop and continued internal costs drops and hope to get outsourced costs down. Also concerns of over capacity and that US demand for rooftop in California is down 22% indicating a slowing in US major markets. Trina is looking at the US to pick up the couple hundred MW shifted out of Project developement
The big shorty? The spammer that would push anything note worthy down 2 pages? He made good monies I thinks.
and based on analyst estimates that are lowered for the third time this year and now running 30-40% lower than 2015 and 60% lower than 2014 how is the stock price supposed to react? Those are not bullish signals
For the past 2 years their earnings have been in decline. 2015 is 30% lower than 2014 and 2016 estimates is now 30-40% lower than 2015. They have a large project pipeline that has been behind schedule for meeting buildouts for the past 2 years. They have made excuses such as managing cash with changing buisness strategies from buy and sell to holdo's and yieldcos . Now their last big purchase and dream of a Yieldco is near dead with no alternative but to try and sell some projects at low margins. Top it off they are likely going to lose much of their stated pipeline in Japan as they are YEARS behind on the proposed buildouts. They have given no clear view of how they are going to generate the cash and returns that were expected of these buildouts. The longer they hold them, the worse the sale is going to be. They need to articulate a good business stategy and how they will monetize their projects and how much they will get out of it. Right now if you look at FSLR, they expect $100M-$150M per GW. They have the lowest costs CSIQ will not get that return and does not have a 1GW per year pipeline ready to sell.
lower lows and lower highs is not an indication that one should hold and watch their value drop
You mean fake posters and fake investors like you? This stock has misfired the past year + and had bought into the Wall Street financing and Yieldco Nirvana hook line and sinker. If you do a cash flow analysis these projects are cash flow negative for a good portion of the upfront years and are at an operating loss when you look at debt financing. If you look at CSIQ fundamentals that suggest a rapid declining asp in the project market that had padded their earnings, you now have to view 2016 as the third year in a row of a 30% earnings decline on relatively flat revenue. This is ocuring while shipments have grown 100% and their project market is in full decline. This thing should hit $12 with earnings expectations now under $2 per share.
according to the new filling, that bloated over valued PP&E is being written down very significantly. For a company that already has negative shareholder equity, this is going to crater
Now down the buck 80's down from a . revised down low 2's which is down from the 3's. The trend should continue all the way down to $1-$1.50. And that $1-$1.50 includes the several hundred MW of projects they may sell. Smack a PE of 8 on that and you have a reasonable price target of $8-$12
They may have suggested that they expect the paperwork to be processed and the catalog updated but that is for only projects through early 2015. They added near 50% of capacity in 2016 and are looking to hav 600-800MW more this year. So at best they will have around 400-500MW added and might get half that $88M and wind up carrying and adding another $60-$70M to the AR for 2015 and 2016 capacities not in the catalog. As I suggest, if the lag is so far behind and there is continued curtailment an IPO will be very very hard.
wait until Q1 earnings for bad news on ASP and costs. Most of the world is at $0.50 now and after June China demand will become sluggish as China slows down from the big push to beat the FIT reduction.