You can make your own buying decisions. I believe Trina at earnings of 1-$1.25 for 2014 and ~1.75 for 2015. I believe CSIQ in the ~$4.6 range for 2014 and around ~$5.50 for 2015. JKS I believe will be around ~$5.80 for 2014 and $~9 for 2015.
Back in October I suggested the downside risk for 2015 was $1.35 for Trina without factoring in projects. around $0.18/ share in EPS if they have 500MW of owned projects. wards of mid $1.65 on a downside risk for earnings. For 2015 this the Upside was $3 based on a GP of $0.19/watt. Likely they settle in between the 2 somewhere between 1.65 to $2.50 in 2015 if no share dilutions. If execution continues as I believe, then 2015 should have a share price low end based on a PE of 10 and a higher range of $30 based on a PE of 12. Mid range I would expect $24 potentially recognizeable come late this year early next year if exectuions and profits run as modeled.
The PR's margin improvements are not as robust as one might think. You must factor out the 20% miss on shipments as primarily Chinese lower ASP and lower margin. The removal of that automatically drives up the blended ASP for the Q. When you do this, the margins jump from ~16% to near ~17.2% just with the lower shipments to China. Not any fundamental improvement on cost or ASP increases in other regions. Then adjust for a slightly lower cost of $0.005 and an ASP increase of $0.005 for outside of China, and you pick up another 1.5% margins to 18.5%
What this means is in the coming quarters as China becomes the 40% of shipments they are forecasting, the margins should drop back down by 1%+ juts by accounting for the lower ASP lower margin region of CHina.
Yes there are long term fundamentals and short term fundamentals. Nothing has changed in my mid to long term fundamentals outside of what I noted in that thread.
There is though what I have talked about for years the historical trends that is not predicated on long term outlooks or fundamentals. That historical trend is a 50% hit in bull and bear cycles in 6 of the past 7 years. The $22 range is a historical trend that deals with timings and sentiments and markets. I mentioned many items that could create short term down turns and longer term trends that could prevent it from spiking above where it had been $44.
Only longer term fundamentals and executions will change that perspective.
If you go back further, I suggested that sometime after Q1 report they should be solidly over $40 also. That has not changed either as long as they fundamentally execute.
For now market sentiment, FUD , tariff and other things has a downward bias.
fool boy, they will never revise down in the first half of the year.
What is interesting is with the project sale and 19% GM, Trina should actually gross more than in Q4.
yes that is good news because the 50MW plant is high teens. That means module margins are up to near 20%+.
hmm truncated the rest. the 400MW of proejcts at $5 and 25% gross for $2B in revenue and $500M are replaced with belnded $1.80 projects and $0.60 gross per project. Cutting revenues to $750M and gross profits from similar quantity in half. They make up some of the lost revenue with increased projects but not enought to offset what will be 800-900MW of projects in 2015
Oh sorry about that, that drop to $22 is based on a near 50% annual drop that is based on historical data for the past 7 years. It has nothing to do with fundaments analysis for earnings prospects. That historical hit has been during good times and bad times and has nothing to do with future fundamentals. Is that better?
As I have stated many times since the middle of last year, forward growth should be 600MW-900MW depending on company for 2014(factural) and for 2015(tbd).. ASP should fall to the mid to upper $0.50's by the start of 2016. Grams per watt will be 4-4.4 grams and Si cost staying around $0.08-$0.09. Processing will drop another 15% from the $0.40 down to $0.32-$0.34 heading into 2016. That places a cost at the $0.40-$0.42 range and margins gross profit maintained at the $0.12-$0.16 range.
You are a smart man, you know the math.
CSIQ loses the $5-$6 project revenue streams come 2016. The projects they will be sucking up will be int he $1.10 range in China,
Do you count the deformaties in the ones that hatch or the ones that fail to last the week? Could it be like mice where they eat all their babies and nothing is left? Solars did do that 2 years ago
$22 is my target could go lower if market tanks. YGE is the first to suggest Q1 is not as strong as hoped. This indicates that Q4 was too strong from dumbed up China demand that was not sustainable to carry through for all of 2014. CSIQ, after Q2 guidance could fall below $20 in my opinion. Everything is back end loaded for them for projects and those could slip if not recorded in Q3.
yeah and there should be a wallmart on every street corner because if you do not it is like a tax on Americans in that you force them to have to pay higher for goods.
Yeah start out missing guidance that is 20% below Q4. Nice start.. That targets 575MW at $0.62 and margins at 16%. Look for another $70M in loss.
Lots of downward pressure news.
JA Solar suggesting ASP to fall below $0.60 in 2014
JA Solar suggesting China demand will not meet targets of 14GW and closer to 10GW likely
Poly prices suggested to spike 25% to the $23-$24 range over 2013
Tariffs in the US likely based on Sun Edison supply agreements and JA solar looking to offshore production to avoid tariffs
Gemany Cuts cap to 2.5GW down about 1.3 from 2013 installs
FSLR drops 90-100M in projects because of Australia Liberal Governemnet trying to abolish government support of solar
Sun Edison eats $300,000 as it withdraws from India projects due to cost and local content issues.
10GW of new capacity being added in 2014 from top 50 companies creates over supply demand as market grows by 6-7GW.
These are the cloudy sky's that may be a rinse repeat scenario in the making and a continued catalyst of this downward price pressure.
Every year but 1 solars have tumbled near 50%. If the market is in correction mode, I can see all the solars heading to down 50% from this years highs. For Trina, that would be pushing the 8 to lower 9's. For Jinko, that would be pushing 18-22 for CSIQ down to 20-24