Yieldco the magic doodoo word. CSIQ is a year away from any Yieldco. When that comes out May 18th, think tank, not brilliant minds type think tank but stock price fall.
And for now, they are maintaining guidance not raising or lowering. If you look at Guidance, that is only 880MW per quarter for Q2-Q4. So visibility is not fully there and the suggestion of low prices and the hesitancy to add more capacity confirms this. They do not want to build out to much and be left with idle capacity.
They have also stated something Trina stated a few years ago that almost killed Trina. That is that they are being selective and going for only the high value sales at risk of market segment growth. Trina tried this and wound up losing market share and missing guidance as they have to compete with others who are willing to quote lower.
But none of the 300MW is being sold in Q1. You are looking at 650MW at $0.58 ASP with a blended cost of $0.46 they gross $78M and have revenues around $377M from modules. Add $14M in project revenues and $7M gross and another $20M at $2M gross for wafers and cells, you get $411M in revenues and $87M gross. Opex and interest running at $60M+ and you have earning before adjustments and taxes of $27M. Forex loss and other adjustments should run $10-$15M. This should make earnings $12-$15M and after taxes $10-$12M. or ~$0.32 per ADS.
remember Jesse Pitchel, he moved on as well after companies closed their solar analyst divisions when solar collapsed in 2011
stupid idea. YGE is over valued with $2Billion in assets.Their capacity is double to triple the value of peers capacity. Then there is the massive $2Billion plus debt, Who wants to take on $45M per quarter in interest payments? They will wait for forced bankruptcy in which the debtors will get paid and the assets will transfer to the buyer for a total of $2Billion and not $4Billion. Think LDK/STP that is now Shunfeng new Energy a major player in China and abroad
Considering the total market is to grow between 8-10GW from 2014 levels, the 500MW expansions of JKS, TSL, CSIQ and Jaso are minor lumps of the total growth. Most of these expansions has been indicated as efficiency gains and equipment upgrades. That is what the poster initially suggested.There will also be continued outsourcing as well for leased capacity.
These will keep the costs higher than the stated vertical costs.That in itself will damper 2015 earnings prospects as the main markets will be Chin at $0.52, Europe at $0.55, Japan at $0.56-$0.58, and the US at $0.67 and falling to $0.60 once outsourced capacity comes online in the second half. The average ASP is going to come in at the md $0.50 range while most blended costs will come in at the $0.46-$0.48 range.
Buying wafers at $0.24 for mono and $0.18 for multi and adding $0.25 processing costs makes average costs $0.43-$0.49
Buying cells at $0.37 for mono and $0.30 for multi and adding $0.15 for module processing placess costs between $0.45 to $0.52.
With most at now a 50/50 split and most of that split is multi internal and outsourced mono, you can see the blending and profits stangnate at the $0.09/watt range still making most companies marginally profitable at best
Yeah, people looked at the numbers from Guidance and ASP trends. They finally recognize that rofits are going down and the Recurrent portfolio is not that strong for a Yieldco
Revenues? They guided flat revenues year over year for 2015. With compressed margins, you are going to see profits cut in third
It is lose money over and over and over. Worst Opex per watt worst interest per watt and most shares outstanding. These guys are running at $130M per Q in opex and interest and well under 1GW per quarter. There is not plan for this company to ever become profitable. They are not expanding because they do not have the cash. They are not reaching project targets in 2014 because they do not have the cash. They are likely hard pressed to get loans for projects as they are hemoraging money.
This company is LDK 2.0
And going to be higher in Q1 while margins are expected to be 16% +/-. expect a larger loss in Q1, This is a dog of a company. Reminds me of another company named LDK.
yep that is what they said for profits Q3 2014.
It aint gonna happen in 2015 for any quarter
Not at costs at $130M per Q and shipments for revenue at 775MW per Q.
And hows that project focus going? They guided 400-600MW connected in 2014. They shipped only 260MW to projects in 2014. They guided 4GW to 4.2GW in shipments last year 2014 They missed projects by 400MW and missed modules shipments for revenues by 400MW.
oh and with that focus on projects, 7% growh year over year in 2014 when the market is growing 15-20% to 52-55GW from 46GW. The market is expected to grow 15-20% and they guided 7% total including projects.
Then again, where is the profits? Not in 2015 either...
This company had negative shipment growth for revenues in 2014 as compared to 2013. Now they guide basic module shipments for revenues to flat for 2013. That is 2 years where the market has grown from 36GW to 52-55GW or 50% and yet their module shipments are flat to 2013. This company sucks donkey di...
yep when margins go down in Q1 and they guide Q2 flat to down again and Opex rises due to holding projects and profits are flat yer again... well.....
oh yes and the market corrects again 10%......
It is a long time before the next ER. 1GW shipped in Q1 and 3.4GW for the year is only 800MW a quarter the rest of the year.