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Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 197 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 29, 2014 9:21 AM Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    HELLO Any Input Here???

    by poker_surfer Oct 26, 2014 4:51 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 29, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Peng runs the company. Peng Drove LDK into bankruptcy and saddled the company with debts e. SOPW owes LDK over $80M for what over the past 3 years? That is the entire sales they have had. Peng looks to me to be using this company as a new vehicle to raise money and funnel back to LDK that is untouched by the current laws and lawsuits going on. The current aquisition spree is to create wealth for those with failing companies like Peng did with his sale of his New Energy holding company to LDK for a quarter of a billion dollars. This company has almost no projects and is not a power producer but yet has an $800M market cap and is going on an aquisition spree of China manufacturers that you will have no ability to recoup any of their money or assets in China. That will be where all the money and assets will reside outside of the debt owed which will equal or exceed assets outside of China in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    SOPW has higher market cap than JKS

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 24, 2014 7:59 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 29, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    If you look at SOPW they have far less completed projects and owned projects than JKS and have far less project pipelines in China than any of the majore producers. What you have is a backdoor way in which LDK is siphoninh money out of the US through a third party entity. LDK is owed over $80M by SOPW which is about what SOPW has had in sales over the 3 years of being owned by LDK. THey have put Peng in charge and he is having SOPW buy Chinese entities that are worthless in my opinion for BIG cash rewarding their owners(Peng etall)

    Jinko is a far better company, larger , better ran and more profitable yet a smaller market cap. Either one takes off or 1 is going to crumble

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 27, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    all PR news, all companies are premier or the largest or one of the largest when in fact they are small fries swimming in a big pond. SOPW is very small in China when you compare the the actuall successfull moudle manufactures like Trina, JKS, Jaso, YGE and GCL. All are far larger conglomerates that have much larger project portfolios. The difference, these guys make other supply chain parts for their own projects. They are not in sweetheart deals paying premium prices for modules from only LDK as terms of the lending requirements from the CDB. Those terms and conditions are made for 1 reason only and that is to funnel money back to those entities. LDK owes CDB tons of money.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 27, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    Still being Pengs little lap dog he nozebleed? Years on the LDK board pumping all kinds of BS and positives for Peng and crew. Now you are doing the same on the Peng ran SOPW. This company has never made a dime. I find it hillarious that the company got $70M from LDK in 2011 as LDK bought a majority ownership and yet owe LDK $80M dollars for services. Where did that $170M go? That is like twice their entire revenue stream since LDK bought them. Now Peng a disgraced Chairman that resigned from LDK is running this company. He is basically using this company as an ARM into the US financial markets as a way to raise money and export it back to China. Those funds raised will be used to pay back LDK and keep the money away from the LDK Lawsuits in the US. I am certain from reading the SEC filings that he is now setting up subsidiaries under Chinese Jurasdiction where the monies are being sent to as will be all the power plants. The shareholders will likely never see a penny from this company with respect to real assets or income from the projects. Be careful investing in these types of Chinese ran companies where assets are out of reach of the shareholders

  • Reply to

    If you have a chance, look at the SPI website

    by bombloze Oct 26, 2014 8:48 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 27, 2014 7:27 AM Flag

    Yes they got majority acquired by LDK then lost their ability to finance when LDK went toast and ran into the ground by Xiafong Peng and Jack Lai due to over expansion and new market segments. The disgraced Peng resigned LDK and is now heading up this company. LDK is no longer a majority owner of SOPW and Peng is now using what little connection he has left to enter the project markets in China that he was unsuccefull at when running LDK. He gifted all those projects he had going on to pay off some of the loans they had.

    I find it quite interesting a company with no porfits and a few million in sales now has a market cap as large as the largest Chinese manufacturers who has capacity, ships real products and have pipelines of projects far greater than SOPW has.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 24, 2014 7:59 AM Flag

    hard to believe a company LDK once bought and was a majority owner of prior to all the dilutions now has a higher market cap at over $800Million. That is well over JKS market cap. And SOPW had amazing sales in Q1 at well over $3Million. Yes $3Million and they have never made a profit.

    sad state of the market for solar valuations

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 24, 2014 7:55 AM Flag

    If you can believe a failed subsidiary building power plants that used to be majority owned by LDK and has never made a profit and had some $3 Million in sales in Q1 now has a market cap of over $800M or the same as Trina is simply ludicrous

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 18, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    Yes but credit in China was changed a few years back. They were restricting credit for new capacity since China had over 60GW of capacity and lots of idle capacity. Instead they have started to implement credit for the end projects which passed the buck through all the segments. So if they need to raise a portion of their own cash like in projects 30% and for capacaity expansion and inventories then the way they raise it is through dilution.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 17, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    Their capacity for modules is target 3GW by the end of the year. Their target cell capcity is 2GW. Their target wafer Capacity is 2.5GW. Page 2 of the presentation for the Q2 Con call.

    Their low cost is predicated on all internal manufacturing. They can not get the 3.3GW guided with the new increase in projects from that 2GW cell. Thus 1/3 is outsourced for the most expensive part of the product. Next year presuming a 20% growth they need to be at 4GW or 1GW more in capacity vertical else margins will get supressed from the module business.

    As for the project numbers, you suggested they get lots of cash, what are your numbers? Or do you not have any?

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 16, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    To be practical, the presentation for Q2 on the Website states module capacity is at 2800MW not 3GW. The Cell capacity is at 1800MW or down 200MW from Q1. It is the wafer and cell capacity that matters and is what is the cost for expansions. Module capacity add has always been dirt cheep.

    As for a Yieldco, options that is a plus for them. But how much cash do they really generate and do they put that back into the power business or do they use it fr core modules.If they sold everything I estimate they get returned roughly $640M on the 800MW. Not bad considering they invested around $0 of their own money after selling near half to a private investor.

    Each MW of power produces 28KWhr at $0.18 subsidized or roughly $5 per watt. The long term 20 year cash generation is $4Billion on the 800MW. Investors in yieldcos generating a 7% return command nearly $3.80 in total cash back based on a $1.40 cost to purchase each watt. That leaves around $1.20 in cash returned to Jinko and partner for around $960M. They get half that or $480M. The yieldco will return the initial investment and interest paid to date or roughly $1.40/watt. Of this Jinko should get around 15%(half the 30% down to build) or appx $0.21/watt . The other half goes to the other investor and to the lender. That is around $160M returned to them for their initial investments. Total cash generation from the yielco is then probably around $640M.

    I did not include the $250M they got from the partner but they did spend an extra $120-$160M that was part of the near half ownership. So the cash generation from that remained is around $100M on top of the $640M. Total cash returned roughly $740M from their initial investments.

    Like I said, they will liekly need $500M cash. Some come from profits, some from sales and likely another secondary

  • Reply to

    Oink! Oink!

    by unclespeaking Oct 16, 2014 12:31 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 16, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    wreeeaaauhhh wreeeaaauhhh

  • Reply to

    JP Morgan reiterates OVERWEIGHT ON OCT 14

    by platytale Oct 15, 2014 10:09 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 15, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    no they are not or the stock would not tank. $25 for a stock about to pull down well over $1 n EPS for the Q is cheap unless there is about to be another major credit freeze and a removal of global fits.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 15, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Need to hear the pigs getting slaughtered for the buy signal to be triggered

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 15, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    could be needed much sooner.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 15, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    Think about it. They have 2GW capacity and are looking to ship 3.6-4GW of product next year. They need to find 1GW of capacity. For expansion this capacity will cost some $200-$300M depending on level of vertical integration. The cost to fill the capacity and float AR will be another $200-$300M. They should be looking at adding 800MW of owned projects. That is a cash need of $900M. Total cash needs is $1.3B to $1.5B.

    For projects they use 30% of their own money or $280M.
    For capacity they will need to use 50% of their own or more or $100M+
    For Inventory/AR they will need atleast $100M .
    Their immediate cash needs will be close to $500M.
    Even if the partner kicks down some cash for the projects they still need close to $400M

    Can you say another secondary come the end of Q1? another 10-15% dilution that will generate little revenue and profits for the investment in the coming year?

    Welcome back to growth and capacity expansion requirements.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 13, 2014 8:10 AM Flag

    Like all the Chinese solars, owning projects is expensive and requires gobs of cash they do not have. To build 100MW they need over $30M of their own money, if they want to develope that GW + back log, they need close to $500M. And that does not cover the capacity needs to expand to for increased shipments to offset continued module ASP declines

  • Reply to

    Strong Q4 for solars

    by rad_nas Oct 10, 2014 12:53 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 13, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    Many have claimed 47GW to 52GW. Why the drop from the high ranges?

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 10, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    LOL when did you ever say revisions up to $100 per share?

    I stated TSL was a buy between 10 and 11 and fair priced at $14 for the near term. For JKS I suggested a buy point of $22/24 and fair price around $32-$35. For CSIQ I suggested and entry point int he $25-$28 range and a fair price near term of $40-$45. My earnings estimates are for a ~20% growh by voilume (including projects) next year for those companies. That places earnings at $3.50 for JKS for 2014 and $4-$4.25 for CSIQ and ~$1 for Trina. For next year bump JKS to $4-$5 and CSIQ to around $4.50 to $5.50 and Trina at around $1.40-$1.65. Place a 10-12 PE to get where I think they are fair valued. That is based on current share count.

    I expect that each company will go back to the well for another 10-15% dilution to fund their continued project and capacity growth. So earnings may pull down 10-15% based on dilutive impacts wiht limited upside to earnings.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 9, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    The big boy solars are all raising $500M primarily from stock and equity investments. How is YGE to fund their projects they are going to own? Do they do this by Doubling their share count?

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Oct 8, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    How quickly 2 months of gains was ripped right out from under everyone. The hype was getting to be to much.

YGE
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