Futures should be valued based on fundamentals. I wrote the cash flow analysis as to why it was overvalued.The cash generation from assets is at best $1.4B yet wth IPO and dbt they placed a $2B market cap. If you remove expenses at bes this generates $1B in dividends or half the IPO value. At best this should be valued in the $10-$12 range because that is all the dividends the seed projects will give out.
UncleCranky needs to take his own college course in babbling translationism.
Did I state they installed 320MW in Q2?
No I said the market for installations is 2.69GW and they might get 15% share of that or 320MW of total Chinese business in Q2.
That would be their own projects and shipments to customers.
The back half of the year the same 10% share of 4GW-4.5GW is 400MW+ for each of the quarters for China business(own projects/JV projects/sales for revenues)
Now considering in 2014 they shipped 1GW of external shipments to China, I do not think it is unrealistic for them to ship 1-1.2GW this year to customers in China plus their own projects for a total or 1.6 to1.8GW. At 1.6GW that is a total shipment share of 35%. Coincidentally that is what they identify in the Q1 presentation power point. And the 1-1.2GW is he guidance for external shipments to China.
So yah 320MW of shipments to China in Q2 is what I am suggesting. That to themselves and to others. That sets them up for needing to ship 500MW+ in each quarter in the second half or what will be about a 12-14% market share in China
Start using English and stop speaking UncleCrankiesChanglish.
That is pathetic at jut over 2GW in the second quarter. They did 5GW in Q1. I have read outputs for April Mau that had installs at 300MW per month and 1.2GW in June. It looks to me like they are on pace for 1300-1400MW per month or 4-4.5GW per quarter. 10% share for the major players is 400MW per quarter from China in each of the 2 quarters or roughly 40% based on 1GW shipments.
Those kinds of numbers do not suggest 17.5 to 20GW rather more like 14.5-17. We shall see how well they turn things up.
For Q2, it looks more like 2700MW or 250MW for most solars and Trina at 15% gets 320MW. Looks not to promissing for JKS who guided sizeable for China
something tells me earnings will be weak and guidance not so much better than what was already given. Drop their 13.5% GM on modules and keep the revenues from projects in the $200M per Q range and you have a company looking at $2.50 or less in earnings. Not the growth that supports a $25-$30 price. At best it is a $16 range.
I do view it as a negative equity growth. Those that get in first and get out get their money. Those that get in later get ????
Why would they grab FSLR now? The sold out their thin film business 4 years ago to FSLR for that 1.5M shares. At the time it was valued at $81M then. It still is around that value or less. Not a very good return.
They exited because fundamentals were bad. After a 2 year uptrend, the fundamentals are entering a down cycle again. Why enter now?
Fundamentals are still not great for solar, so why re-enter buying old technology? Wait another 2 or 3 years?
By the way BP exited in 2011 for similar easons. They saw the feast and was going to let the companies compete for business with the cheepest winning.
Smart call on their parts
Bottom line anybody holding solar in late 2012 through 2013 made a killing. Anyone that was pumping and holding since January has lost a large share of that killing.
The key is to recognize the exit and when to get back in. I got the exit part good, not necesarilly the buy back in.
The guy says one thing then another. He writes articles and suggests in them pros over and over.
You tell him point blank in his own words with his own links about his bullish comments and then he seems to deny that they are reflective of him. Who writes 3 articles and suggests a company is one of the best with huge upside potentials and then flips a 180 because the stock crashed and the CEO makes a lowball bid? And he denies he was ever bullish on Jaso then.
I may be a twoheadedsnake which was a moniker given to me by people for writing pro and con stuff daily and weekly but he is twofaced
The guy is doing 180's right and left. He tells you CSIQ has great power and the Yieldco is awesome and others tell him that they have some Junk they are trying to dump and here is the PPA and he is in denial. Argues that it is not accurate then out come more PPA's even lower and lower. Now multiple people are telling him that even FSLR is not going to be imune to these ultra low PPA's that are going on. The guy is a Hack analyst preaching the virtues after the facts at the peaks. Then turning around shortly there after saying he sold out and shifted.
What happened in the mean time, nothing, no PR no news, I think he just realized things he was being told were accurate and thus he recognized the flaws of his comments and investing. No biggie, always good to see the errors of the ways. He just does not admit them. Never trust a guy like that.
Not going to be able to reduce costs much this year or next. They basically buys wafers and lots of cells. Neither of these prices are falling anytime soon and could be increasing as poly stabilizes and demand increases. The claimed $0.15 module cost is the only real area where they can save internal costs along all their products. That $0.15 has very limited cost cutting ability going forward 1 to 2 years
Yes sounds like B..S does it not. That is why you need to look inside the numbers. It is not a 1 year or 5 year manifestation but this will show more in the future. They lay it all out in their operational expenses on the Q1 ER. It show clearly they are targeting $8M in net profits yet giving away $240M. $170M of that is the depreciation of the assets not from profits
This is not a REIT where the property can increase in value over 30 years and you have income from the rental to boot.
They sold 376MW of capacity that is under contract for some 20+ years. The power generation from said projects over 30 years is some 45KWhr per Watt of DC. That is $4.50/watt on average if they get $0.10 and everything lasts 30 years. The Cash generation is apprximately $1.5Billion dollars from said pwoer generation. They IPOd with debt and valuation at nearly $2Billion dollars. This before any interest or Opex.
You tell me how they generate $65M per year for 30 years off of the assets from the IPO and return the initial investments.
They do not because if this were a business that generated real positive cash flow, the assets would have to generate the initial $1.5B for the projects, $500M for the Debt, $250M for the interest and have equity remaining of $1.5Billion they sold the public on.That is the need of $4Billion dollars.
Those assets are NEVER going to generate that kind of asset growth. They sold the assets at over $5/watt to some suckers who think it is a good deal.
The only way they acquire more is to DILUTE and take on massive debt like TERP. TERP has trippled outstanding shares in 1 year while taking on $2Billion in debt as well all for 1.5GW of power. They basically have $6Billion in cash generation and $6Billion valuation from debt and money received without paying the dividends or opex or interest.
I had put SunPower on my home in San Jose. During really hot days 95+ the degradation on power would be 20% lower than on cool sunny days of 75 to 80. The cooler days would push 60KWhr per day in the summer from a 9.2KW system. On really hot days, it pushed around 45-50Kwhr.
I understand the heat tolerance impact on power is less of an issue on CDTE and the CDTE is better at low angle light in generall allowing for more power output per watt DC than silicon modules.