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Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 104 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 7:48 AM Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    SolarMax

    by ajasanta2 Sep 17, 2014 6:09 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 17, 2014 7:48 AM Flag

    What does this company spend RnD on? They make their own inverters right? Why OEM and ship direct to others someone elses unless your products do not work? Remember wires for wiresaws, nothing from them or the LED lights

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 17, 2014 7:26 AM Flag

    lots of standard uncle bable that basically suggests guidance.

    1: effective capacity is around 1.1GW for Q3 based on 125% utilization and close to 1.2GW for Q4. The inventory on hand at $0.38 material cost per watt is roughly 1.18GW. In line with general historical inventory needs.

    2: They generally carry 1 quarters inventory so based on Q4 shipment growth between 1.1GW and 1.2GW, the inventory should be $450M+

    3: full capacity places them around 3.7GW(midrange) for total year shipments depending on ramp timing to 3.8GW . Shipments for revenue recognition is much less at around 3.2GW.

    but that is a lot of bable about nothing as earnings is what matters. Atleast based on share price market expects some from Trina while they do not for Yingli.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 16, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    My appologies wrong line in the balance sheet. They have some $450M in inventory which is enough to make roughly 1 quarters production + project inventory not 1 months.

  • Reply to

    Reports Poly cost to 165 RMB

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 4:15 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 16, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    during good times and a loaded cost of $18-$20 after writing off $200M

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 16, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    panic and fear , they have $110M in inventory and $53M in prepayments to suppliers. That $100M of inventory will make about 1 months production run, the other payments a half a month. The only thing that may be written off is their Poly commitments oversees due to tariffs in China.

  • Reply to

    Reports Poly cost to 165 RMB

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 4:15 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    Polaris Solar PV Network News : September by strong end demand and other factors, the recent transaction price of domestic polysilicon resume its rally began to rise, the current high-quality polysilicon transaction price reached 163 yuan / kg (including tax, the same below), part of the polysilicon price reached 165 yuan / kg of high years.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    This company is the special of the day on the local upscale Chinese Restaurant. ... Dog Meet.

    The Q3 guidance cut basically makes this years growth a 15% increase. Over last year. With the majority of that increase being their own projects. That means global shipments to customers grew at a paltry 6.5% based on current guidance. This is around 3300MW.

    Market growth outside of China growing at 15-20% this year means Yingli lost market share. A similar growth for 2015 is going to add around 275MW bringing shipments to 3.575GW. Costs flat in the $0.47 range and an ASP in the $0.62 range they make $0.15 per watt or $536M on a bullish upside. They make another $50M on their owned projects for a total gross of $575-$600M.

    Opex and interest today is $117M/Q not including RnD. This will grow to $122M per Q in 2015. Add $15M in RnD per Q (lower than Q2) and you have quarterly costs of $135M or $530M in costs. The module business would be break even operationally and they may make $50M or so from projects. After taxes, they will be lucky to make $0.20 in per share in Net profits in 2015 while shipping 4.5GW of total projects.

    That is the bullish scenario I see for 2015. The bear drops 3 cents in gross profits which wipes out $105M in gross profits and turns the year to a $0.50 loss.

    That is why this company is dog meat

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 7:57 AM Flag

    Peng has resigned as Chairman of the board and Mr. Tong the president and CEO has taken over as temporary Chairman.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 4:15 AM Flag

    That is over $26/kg based on todays exchange rate of 6.13. Si costs might be rising to $0.125-$0.1325 In the near future. That is a 5% cost increase in modules vs last year/early this year costs at $18/kg

  • Reply to

    Think Trina will get into leasing?

    by zangnut Sep 5, 2014 9:42 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 6, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    Nope rolling developement is not their model in their growth market of China, It is in the limited market they are addressing outside of China. Currently identified publicly is 210MW in China out of the 310 MW they have in construction as being held by them. That is a minimum of 2/3 their construction is for themselves. We know the UK systems are to be sold.

    From seeking alphas transcript for TSL Q2

    'In addition, for the downstream business there was $129 million for the development of our own projects, majority of which were the China project that we intend to complete and hold"

    "One is the 90 megawatt Xinjiang project that is to be – we are expecting now to be completed in the beginning of fourth quarter. So that would be retained. And also a 120 megawatts of project that we are expecting to complete at the – maybe beginning of the fourth quarter as well and that would also be retained. "

  • Reply to

    year over year

    by bullenmarkt Sep 3, 2014 5:37 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 4, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    not likely....

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 2, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    your clueless on project accounting......

  • Reply to

    Great News?

    by attacggcgttg Sep 2, 2014 5:19 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 2, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    only 3 more months until the slowest period of the year

  • Reply to

    Weeding throughthe data to reality

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 26, 2014 11:27 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 31, 2014 7:30 AM Flag

    whoever said it was $9.50 stock? I mentioned it could fall below $10 if the market tanked, the market did not tank just had a pullback. Buy in the 10's and 11's and very low 12's for a stock that should earn $1.30-$1.60 next year is reasonable. $18 for a stock 6 months ago that was going to earn $0.80-$1.10 was not reasonable given the valuations Chinese solars get due to where assets are located.

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    Like I said, not certain where you come off with over $800M in revenue by Q4. Please explain your logic?.

    Then the question is how much margins are you expecting on PV system sales and how much revenue? $37M is a lot of interest to cancel out at the current 3.5% gross margins of the Systems buisiness reported in Q2.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    I could care less about the input costs and who pays what. I am presuming a 51/49% partnership and how you split up the profits after all costs are incurred.

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 9:44 PM Flag

    That is your argument YGE's margins remain above 15% and TSL is shrinking?

    The point is that an ASP of $0.62 and a marging of 15% is $0.093 cents. Yingli is a far cry from that for Opex + interest at $0.156 and if you forcast the shipments growth Yingli remains above that 0.093 for the next several quarters.

    Trina is below the $0.093 level already by $0.025 cents and will be even lower below that in Q3.

    If you run costs today and the next 2 quarters, Yingli needs to have 20% gross margins to break even.

    If you want them to be profitable they need to make more than $0.25 to justify a $3 stock price. That means they need to pull down nearly $43M in Net profits or $50M in profits before taxes. Where do they get an added $60M in gross profits per Quarter to earn that $0.25? On 1100MW that os well over $0.05 per watt extra in gross profits per watt,

    At 1300MW per Q, they get $18M per Q in added profits and then need to find another $0.032 per watt or 5% in added margins somewhere some how.

    These are not easy milestones to overcome especially when they are partnering in the downstream projects and fofitting some profits to peers and then forfiting some profits to GCL.

    Add to that the over $800M in accounts receivables(aka shipments to customers) and it is likely you are going to see some sizeable writeoffs again from Yingli as they had in the recent past years

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    How much does Yingli really get for projects? They are building them for appx $1.10/watt and are getting a 15% gross return when sold. That is $0.17/watt. On 200 MW that is $34M. Now the question is are these 100% owned or partners? If partners presume half the profits go to others so they gross $17M.

    The real money is in owning the projects long term. This takes capital that Yingli does not have and the rate of return is very minimal over the first few years.

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    I do not look at Opex as a percent of shipments when looking at a companies operational efficiency. I prefer to look at their costs on a per watt shipment and compare to their peers.

    for Q2 yinli averaged $0.112/watt for Opex and $0.042 for interest. That is $0.154 in costs per watt

    Peers Trina is at $0.068 and $0.0085 for a total of $0.076 or half of YGE,. Then again this is total shipments and not just shipments for revenue.

    JKS is at $0.073 and $0.13 $0.017 for interest and a total of $0.09/watt shipped for revenue.

    For Q3 The numbers are better for Yingli as the costs are estimated(including project shipments) to drop to $0.133 down from $0.154.

    Peers Trian however drops from $0.076 to $0.071.

    JKS drops from $0.09 to $0.075(project included)

    I like to present this way because you can roughly estimate cost increases and you will notice that even though Yingli reduces Opex and interest per watt by appx 13%, their Opex and interest increases by roughly $8M to ~ $144M

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    Not all those 1100MW are shipped for revenues. By their own admission 165MW of projects in Q3 and likely similar rates in Q4. So reality is around 950MW shipped for revenue

YGE
3.58-0.07(-1.92%)Sep 18 4:05 PMEDT

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