your looking at a near 25% dilution if the convertible senior notes. They will be over $100M shares when converted.
Poor timing and filing. I understand the need to help pay for capacity expansion and plants they plan on owning. Should impact earnings by near $9M in interest or $0.10 a share lower the the ~$1 in eps as some estimates are. A 12% dilution should wack the stock 10-12%.
OK bog todo abuot nothing. The screams and crys of devastation to the industry from todays rulings is hogwash. The bottom line is there will be a half cent impact on the cost of solar power generation per kwhr or less than 5% increase.
If one looks at a module selling for $0.70/watt, the duty is $0.21 at 30% tarrif. That $0.21 is offset by the 30% federal tax credit which makes the cost per watt incease of $0.147 cents. A watt generates roughly 30KWhr. That means the average cost to generate a kilowat hour increases by 0.0047 cents. With the majority of installations in the west and Ca in the $5 range retail installed before credits and the $3.30-$3.50 range after credits, the KWHR was $0.11 to $0.12. The increase is less than 5% or negligeable.
That is for companies that generate 10-20% of their revenues from the US.
considering they have had inverters, LED lights and racking systems for a couple of years now, that is quite low. 100MW of inverters should be $15M to $20M by itself.
The guidance is flat to slightly down for volumes and up for margins. The overall gross profits looks like it will be short some $7M for covering opex and interest. Q2 looking for 600-650MW of modules might add another $13M in gross bu higher shipmentst would also add another ~$6M in Opex. That would put them around break even operationally with Opex and interest.
I do not care about daily price action as I do not day trade nor buy options. Nothing has changed my expected earnings from operations. The gross came in a few mill lower and opex was a few mil higher but these were shipment volumes and distributions. I was expecting slightly more shipments in Q1 and Q2 guidance but in general reasonable. Their GM was inline with what I expected even slightly higher by a few 10ths. As I stated before, I will buy more at near the 50% drop point or $18-$20. A dollar change in a day is nothing.
huge loss on Forex. Otherwise low end of volumes but good margins and gross profits slightly light. Q2 guidance a little light on module volumes. Otherwise pretty much as expected.
I would concur at the price range biased lower end for now and higher end based on second half and 2015 views. The move was not earnings based rather it is shorts getting margin call being forced to cover driving up the volume and price. Once the cover subsides, I would expect that the price will pull back slightly but stabilize in the $~$12-$14 range as it predominately was for the past quarter until the recent attacks
Be factually accurate. They are shipping 150 to 180MW to themselves in their guidance that is not for revenue. Those shipments for the most part will not be sold but absorbed onto owned projects. They are shipping around 60% more for revenue and not twice as much and they are doing this at margins that are 25% lower. Those increased ~300MW shipped for revenue has costs associated that is going to increase the opex. If it is shipped overseas then you are looking at $12-$15M in Opex. If half are in China or regional then you have an increase of around $8-10M in opex. So by the numbers and margins on modules in the mid teens(15%) then the numbers suggest lower gross and higher opex.
I did suggest they would make more gross on less shipments and also suggested higher net due to lower shipments and opex for Q1. It is basic analysis.
It was a nice quarter with good profits exceeding expectations. The Word smithing of the PR and Q2 suggested a stronger Q2. In reality after reviews no project revenues, and lower margins should setup Q2 for lower profits than Q1.
It is a shame they try and sell massive shipments increase in the PR, then back off that and suggest near 20% of that is not for Q2 quarters and is for some owned projects. In all after review with the lower margins and volumes for revenue recognition int he 800MW range, gross profit may come in up to $10M lower than in Q1 while Opex is going to increase with the higher product shipments. This could create operational profits that are $15-$20M lower than the blowout Q1. So basically the guidance is mid teens margins for the Q is likely to halve the net profits. The guidance for the year being affirned in shipment volumes places 3.2-3.4GW for external or roughly 900MW per Q for Q3 and Q4. That is a slight increase and might bring profits back towards Q1 levels with the teen margins. That puts core module business at ~ $1 in EPS with project revenues adding some additional profits of maybe 15-25%.
just my analysis unless they are lowballing margins which is doubtful as the will significantly increase shipments from the low ASP China markets
Have not heard the transcript but the PR read very bullish. Hopefully Trina JKS and Yingli will all be suggesting the same strong guidance on volumes and this is the catalyst from the bottom
Operationally tracking good for the year. $105-110M gross for q2 with oped and interest at ~$60M. Should be good fo ~$1 in eps with a good back half of year lined up. They appear on track for $4-&5 in eps
It said it basically indicated the installs were not happeneing. Now Deutsche says 1MW if they are lucky for the year. Bad very bad for solars counting on 40% shipments to China.
I mentioned the demand from Q4 is not going to be seen in all of 2014. Maybe some parts. I have read articles in Chinese that say the distributed installs in Q1 is not existent. That there is not the profit to warrant investments. The companies are holding off distributed as they expect FIT to be increased making it worth the investment in the second half of the year. One article suggested less than 1% of the targets for the year had been met and in most cases 0%. These were regional breakouts. Imagine, only 8-10GW installed in China this year and not the 14-15GW that some were hoping for. A company like Trina with a 10% share will fall short 400-500MW. They already missed Q1. If ramps were done for 14GW, then expect excess inventory to start impacting the ASP to the downside.