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Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 65 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 31, 2015 3:17 PM Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    ODYD's Website

    by supracmdrr Jul 12, 2015 12:03 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 13, 2015 8:42 PM Flag

    The guy says one thing then another. He writes articles and suggests in them pros over and over.
    You tell him point blank in his own words with his own links about his bullish comments and then he seems to deny that they are reflective of him. Who writes 3 articles and suggests a company is one of the best with huge upside potentials and then flips a 180 because the stock crashed and the CEO makes a lowball bid? And he denies he was ever bullish on Jaso then.

    I may be a twoheadedsnake which was a moniker given to me by people for writing pro and con stuff daily and weekly but he is twofaced

  • Reply to

    ODYD's Website

    by supracmdrr Jul 12, 2015 12:03 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 13, 2015 8:33 PM Flag

    The guy is doing 180's right and left. He tells you CSIQ has great power and the Yieldco is awesome and others tell him that they have some Junk they are trying to dump and here is the PPA and he is in denial. Argues that it is not accurate then out come more PPA's even lower and lower. Now multiple people are telling him that even FSLR is not going to be imune to these ultra low PPA's that are going on. The guy is a Hack analyst preaching the virtues after the facts at the peaks. Then turning around shortly there after saying he sold out and shifted.

    What happened in the mean time, nothing, no PR no news, I think he just realized things he was being told were accurate and thus he recognized the flaws of his comments and investing. No biggie, always good to see the errors of the ways. He just does not admit them. Never trust a guy like that.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 10, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    Not going to be able to reduce costs much this year or next. They basically buys wafers and lots of cells. Neither of these prices are falling anytime soon and could be increasing as poly stabilizes and demand increases. The claimed $0.15 module cost is the only real area where they can save internal costs along all their products. That $0.15 has very limited cost cutting ability going forward 1 to 2 years

  • Reply to

    Dillution dillution

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 2, 2015 7:51 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 9, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    Yes sounds like B..S does it not. That is why you need to look inside the numbers. It is not a 1 year or 5 year manifestation but this will show more in the future. They lay it all out in their operational expenses on the Q1 ER. It show clearly they are targeting $8M in net profits yet giving away $240M. $170M of that is the depreciation of the assets not from profits

    This is not a REIT where the property can increase in value over 30 years and you have income from the rental to boot.

  • Reply to

    Dillution dillution

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 2, 2015 7:51 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 8, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    They sold 376MW of capacity that is under contract for some 20+ years. The power generation from said projects over 30 years is some 45KWhr per Watt of DC. That is $4.50/watt on average if they get $0.10 and everything lasts 30 years. The Cash generation is apprximately $1.5Billion dollars from said pwoer generation. They IPOd with debt and valuation at nearly $2Billion dollars. This before any interest or Opex.

    You tell me how they generate $65M per year for 30 years off of the assets from the IPO and return the initial investments.

    They do not because if this were a business that generated real positive cash flow, the assets would have to generate the initial $1.5B for the projects, $500M for the Debt, $250M for the interest and have equity remaining of $1.5Billion they sold the public on.That is the need of $4Billion dollars.

    Those assets are NEVER going to generate that kind of asset growth. They sold the assets at over $5/watt to some suckers who think it is a good deal.

    The only way they acquire more is to DILUTE and take on massive debt like TERP. TERP has trippled outstanding shares in 1 year while taking on $2Billion in debt as well all for 1.5GW of power. They basically have $6Billion in cash generation and $6Billion valuation from debt and money received without paying the dividends or opex or interest.

  • Reply to

    CSIQ with P/E of 5--------------

    by cbt_58 Jul 2, 2015 1:11 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 4, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    keep telling yourself that earnings is down due to retained projects.

  • Reply to

    CSIQ with P/E of 5--------------

    by cbt_58 Jul 2, 2015 1:11 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 3, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    Gotta love a trailing PE of 5

    Gotta love a forward PE of 10 even better.

    you know what that means, earnings is down down down year over year

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 2, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    These stocks are a scam, in 1 year they have gone from 25Million class A shares and 75million class B and B1 shares to 75Million class A shares.

    They darn well better have trippled their CAFD with that kind of dilution.

    watch out for active aggressive growth through purchases, they tend to hide the real underlying problems.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 1, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    CSIQ getting a good old fashioned beat down again. It was over $40 until they presented their Yieldco preliminary. Since then down over 25% and likely to head to down 50%.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 1, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    So was that 600MW of Austin Powers recent RFP that just closed for under $0.04 part of that 4GW potential pipeline? My guess is yes as the RFP had received 8GW of quotes and the winner quoted 1.25GW at what is a record under $40/kwhr.

    That is right, when companies talk long term pipelines, these are projects others are pursuing to. Many will never manifest to reality for most companies and they as others will be lucky to close 25% of that long term pipeline.

    Just look to Japan they are already out what ~150MW near term pipeline because of policy issues. That was near term like the 1GW near term Recurrent says it has. Even that 1GW may not be true in the end

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 1, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    and waiting and waiting, the IPO should be in 2015. They are not IPOing with only US assets. There is no cash flow in them to support dividends. They need 50-100MW from Japan and 150MW from the UK to make it work along with the rediculously low cash flow Recurrent projects like Autin Energy at below $0.05/KWhr.

  • Reply to

    Insiders Are buying!

    by rr.rr9989 Jun 25, 2015 5:19 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 1, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Check it out folks, company is selling the stock for CAFD. That is right it was IPO'd and the company got you to buy assets at well above market aand cash flow generations. Gotta love wallstreet.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 20, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    pygmy ponies are to short for you?

  • Reply to

    8.3 started wrong foot out...

    by unclespeaking Jun 19, 2015 11:25 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 7:00 PM Flag

    closed lower

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    This company will be one of the later Yieldco's. There will be several already testing the waters and re-raing capital by the time this goes public. There very well could be a tired market when this goes public with what is viewed in my opinion as very low quality and very low profit projects from the U.S.

  • Reply to

    4% dividend; any chance for growth?

    by eizoot Jun 19, 2015 4:17 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    I would take the SCTY Bond That is pure interest plus your equity investment back, The Yieldco's dividend is including your equity interests being returned, big difference. Shareholder equity is negative in the Yieldco model. That stock price will plunge unless they raise more capital to buy more projects. To me it is like a ponsie scheme where the first in gets his money and the last in is left holding the bag as there is not enough money to go around

  • Reply to

    Get in on CAFD (FSLR's 8.3)

    by carsnmoney00 Jun 19, 2015 11:24 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    garbage stock using non standard accounting to reflect some inane shareholder value. Bottom line like TERP, this thing is going to the well many many times to get cash to buy more projects. Hard to fathom an IPO at $1.6Billion and $500M in debt for 432MW of projects owned by CAFD and partners of FSLR and SPWR. The have conned you guys out of paying $5/watt in valuation and debt when that capacityproabably will not even generate that kind of cash flow.over 30 to 35 years. They sucker you into believing that you are getting a dividend when in reality they are giving you depreciated assets. That depreciated asset is removed from the book value.

    The great con is a Yieldco is a good investment. It is only good for the Sponsors and not the johny come lately retirees WS is coning.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    and what have they gotten from spending an average of $40M per year on RnD over the past 6 years? Nothing that I see that is worth $240M....

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    um yeah about those estimates and earnings on yahoo, what are they derived from? I aks because in Q1 yahoo has listed a profit of $0.26 actual but if you read the ER they had

    Net loss (83,660)

    Loss per share:
    Class A common stock - Basic and diluted $ (0.57)

    Yahoo analysts are giving you pipe dreams of nonGAAP earnings.

    Oh yes and in 2014 yer end they had a net loss of $75M on revenues $125M not the $0.30 year ago earngings claimed by yahoo.

  • These yieldcos do not generate cash for expansion. The only way they can aquire more power is to buy the projects. The initial IPO gave most of the cash to the Sponsor. They generate no cash flow for aquisitions as they pay 80-90% of the cash flow after expenses as dividends. This is why they acquired 800Million in debt at IPO and another $150M in debt earlier this year and another $500M yet again. To grow they need money and what they own does not generate the money needed. If it did, then the Sponsors would not have needed to spin off the assets.

    The sponsors at the aid of WS crooks are creating a high profit sales channel that smuck investors are buying into because of the "Dividend" which is nothing more than primarily asset depreciation. They are also creating high consulting fees for the daily operations that are returning to the sponsors tens of millions anually out of
    any profits.

    You can expect TERP to go to the well over and over as they MUST acquire more projects and at inflated prices to hide the weekness in their earnings.

YGE
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