considering they are loikely to pull down $1.30 and $1.70 in the next 2 quarters and over $5 a share in 2015, they better be in outperform mode.
Based on market demand growth forcasts of 20% for 2015
Recognize 60% of the 1.3GW backlog in 2015 that is 780MW
blend ASP of $2.75 for EPC/Owned or $2.1B at 18% margins
Gross Profit $378M
Module growth of 15% growth on 2.2GW is 2.54GW.
blended $0.62 ASP that is $1.57B at 22% margins.
Gross profig $345M
Preliminary 2015 Revenue likely $3.6B with ~20% margins.
Gross profits $720M
Opex rising slightly to $70M average per Q
interest steady at $15
total expenses $340M
Income before Taxes and adjustments Roughly $360M
Net $324 before other adjustments
Current shares 60M
Estimates $5.40/share before adjustments
Based on Full year guidance you are looking at $800-$1Billion in revenue.
Module shipments based on remaining guidance would be between 700 and 800MW
Presume module sales similar to Q2/Q3 rates or slightly up to 600 MW
Presume a 2 cent drop $0.65 as modules to Japan drop and increased China business
Puts module sales at $390M
Project sales at $410M-$610M
Midrange $510M or 56% of revenues
How it maps to the year guidance to be appx 50% of revenues
Total Solutions = 128/205/395/510= $1.288b = 44% of revenues
If they achieve the $610M in Q4 then that is 49% of revenues or roughly 50%
From this one could presume that Q4 revenue will be better than Q3 by a high end range of of $200M.
20% margins look likely.
The upside is $200M Gross in Q4 with expenses rising to around $65M and interest at $15M.
Year end bonus pushes Opex and Interest to $85M
earnings before taxes $115M upside.
Tax at 10% they Net $103.5M o
Upside year = .07/.95/1.5/1.72 = $4.24 post share dilution.
They diluted some 12-13% so earning should be mid $4.60 prior to dilution and added interest.
The downside prior to adjustments should be appx $0.50 for Q4 or $1.25
Slap a trailing PE of 10 on that and you should be at $40-42
About this time last year I started giving peaks into 2015 on what could come.
Here is an extraction of the remainder of 2014 and a preliminary peak into 2015 for CSIQ. The numbers for 2015 I consider as conservative based on backlogs and market growth.
2014 remainder of the year - Here are some outtakes I find interesting.
It appears that when stating shipments of modules, they are including shipments to their own projects.
It appears that module sales for revenues is flat around the 580MW +/- for the year
It appears that Q4 revenue based on Year guidance should be between $800M to $1Billion
It appears that the margins should maintain at the 20% level.
It appears that Net in Q4 could be between $1.33 and $1.85 per share depending on taxes and adjustments + low end and high end revenue meets.
Total Busines solution appx 33%
Revenue from modules $419M
Revenue from Total Solutions $205M
ASP $0.70 for Q2
Modules shipped for Revenue = 419/.70 = 598.5MW
Q3 Modules 740MW
Q3 revenue = $790M
Q3 ASP = $0.67
Half revenue to be projects =$395M
Module Revenue = $395
Module shipment for revenue= 589MW
Gross Profit 20% = $158M
Module Cost $0.50
Module Gross .17/watt
Module Gross $100M
Tariff impact $20M
Project Gross $78M = 19.7% GM
Total Gross $180M
Before Tax and adjustments $100M
After Tax $90M
These number could be flipped and it may be possible that more revenue than 50% is from Total solutions to reach the 50% overall for the year.
What it looks like is MW for revenue are flattened for Q3 from Q2 while more goes to projects.
looks very promissing. Wonder if guidance for modules has some of those allocated for internal use in projects?
yes sir and guidance is HUGE 20% margins on $800M. They should be pushing over $1.25 in profits next Q
Yes I listened to the con call. They bought cells at $0.42 up until recently. Their cost was $0.62 in Q1 and $0.60 in Q2. They claim $0.03-$0.05 cost for building modules oversees or around $0.22/watt. That places their costs at $0.56 moving forward for modules to Europe. That is why margins may climb to the 16.5% range near term. Then they prices will slowly fall as ASP falls with others producing cheaper.
could be. In past years they PR'd there con calll date on 8/8 in 2013 7/30 in 2012 and 8/2 in 2011. As of now 8/12 no date set. late date sets are generally not good.
I am expecting Q2 will net around $31M. Based on the back end loading, they need to ship over 600MW of modules and pull in some 120MW + of projects and guide to $775M in revenues. Margins will need to be guided upwards of 20% projects included. Problem I see is tariffs can eat into profits for the back half of the year by some $0.35 cents.
right and 18 months ago what was the share price? Almost identical to todays close even with increased module sales of 4 fold and huge margin improvements.
Do not expect the bull cycle to last. It is near the tail end if not already at the tail end for ASP appreciation.
no the company guided 400-500MW Completed this year. That is not total projects that they guided between 100 and 200MW a quarter as target builds
from Q3 ER
"But next year, as I mentioned, we built on a run-rate of quarter basis, we are looking for between 100 megawatts to 200 megawatts on quarter basis."
from Q1 ER
"We reiterate our guidance of completed downstream PV projects of between 400 MW and 500 MW for the year of 2014."
So as you know projects depending on regions can take 6 months to 1.5 years to complete. That means they have far more than the 400-500MW actively being built. The ones started in Q3/Q4 are pushing to year end or later on top of the 400-500MW that were started at the beginning of the year/last year and in the second quarter
The tariffs are having demand impacts. Global ramp is exceeding global demand again. There is becoming an oversupply of inventory as demand does not meet expectations in key markets. This is going to put pricing pressure on ASP again. That is not unexpected as some forcast avg ASP back down to $0.60 by year end. Only it could go lower quicker. The Taiwanese have fired the second shot needing to clear excess cells and other product they have. The Chinese will be following on wafers and modules. We are about to see the 3rd phase of the shakeout in which a few more companies will fall by the wayside under price competition. I have my 3 bets in place as to who survives the third round of slaughter.
Need to be in cache rich companies with low costs and low opex, the others may crater yet again
yes but that trend is going to quickly reverse itself. You have inventory buildups and weaker than anticipated demand by many solars. This is creating yeat again overcapcaity that is going to drive ASP to $0.60 and below. SOL can not operate in a competitive environment with the ASP at $0.60 or less. Their margins will quickly drop or their volume will shrink further. Remember they have no cell capacity. Yet they are now a "Module" company.
based on their guidance 16.5% is my target for Q3. Problem is you need to look beyond Q3 and ASP trends. The ASP will head to $0.60 and south. That is going to take SOL back down to 3-5% GM where they can not operate. To stay at only high ASP markets when others are chasing that same market with lower cost goods means volumes drop as well.
The ASP is going to drop due to over production yet again by the Chinese solars. SOL addressing the global market is now missing guidance by 15% for the year and they have inventory buildups to back that up. Others depend not only globally but on China and we know that Chinas distributed market is way behind schedule. China may miss by 2-4GW their target productions guidance was built on.
Things are about to get worse for solars with high costs either production or operational. SOL and Yingli CSUN HSOL watch out.