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Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 94 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 26, 2014 1:02 PM Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 4:15 AM Flag

    That is over $26/kg based on todays exchange rate of 6.13. Si costs might be rising to $0.125-$0.1325 In the near future. That is a 5% cost increase in modules vs last year/early this year costs at $18/kg

  • Reply to

    Think Trina will get into leasing?

    by zangnut Sep 5, 2014 9:42 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 6, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    Nope rolling developement is not their model in their growth market of China, It is in the limited market they are addressing outside of China. Currently identified publicly is 210MW in China out of the 310 MW they have in construction as being held by them. That is a minimum of 2/3 their construction is for themselves. We know the UK systems are to be sold.

    From seeking alphas transcript for TSL Q2

    'In addition, for the downstream business there was $129 million for the development of our own projects, majority of which were the China project that we intend to complete and hold"

    "One is the 90 megawatt Xinjiang project that is to be – we are expecting now to be completed in the beginning of fourth quarter. So that would be retained. And also a 120 megawatts of project that we are expecting to complete at the – maybe beginning of the fourth quarter as well and that would also be retained. "

  • Reply to

    year over year

    by bullenmarkt Sep 3, 2014 5:37 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 4, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    not likely....

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 2, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    your clueless on project accounting......

  • Reply to

    Great News?

    by attacggcgttg Sep 2, 2014 5:19 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 2, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    only 3 more months until the slowest period of the year

  • Reply to

    Weeding throughthe data to reality

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 26, 2014 11:27 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 31, 2014 7:30 AM Flag

    whoever said it was $9.50 stock? I mentioned it could fall below $10 if the market tanked, the market did not tank just had a pullback. Buy in the 10's and 11's and very low 12's for a stock that should earn $1.30-$1.60 next year is reasonable. $18 for a stock 6 months ago that was going to earn $0.80-$1.10 was not reasonable given the valuations Chinese solars get due to where assets are located.

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    Like I said, not certain where you come off with over $800M in revenue by Q4. Please explain your logic?.

    Then the question is how much margins are you expecting on PV system sales and how much revenue? $37M is a lot of interest to cancel out at the current 3.5% gross margins of the Systems buisiness reported in Q2.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    I could care less about the input costs and who pays what. I am presuming a 51/49% partnership and how you split up the profits after all costs are incurred.

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 9:44 PM Flag

    That is your argument YGE's margins remain above 15% and TSL is shrinking?

    The point is that an ASP of $0.62 and a marging of 15% is $0.093 cents. Yingli is a far cry from that for Opex + interest at $0.156 and if you forcast the shipments growth Yingli remains above that 0.093 for the next several quarters.

    Trina is below the $0.093 level already by $0.025 cents and will be even lower below that in Q3.

    If you run costs today and the next 2 quarters, Yingli needs to have 20% gross margins to break even.

    If you want them to be profitable they need to make more than $0.25 to justify a $3 stock price. That means they need to pull down nearly $43M in Net profits or $50M in profits before taxes. Where do they get an added $60M in gross profits per Quarter to earn that $0.25? On 1100MW that os well over $0.05 per watt extra in gross profits per watt,

    At 1300MW per Q, they get $18M per Q in added profits and then need to find another $0.032 per watt or 5% in added margins somewhere some how.

    These are not easy milestones to overcome especially when they are partnering in the downstream projects and fofitting some profits to peers and then forfiting some profits to GCL.

    Add to that the over $800M in accounts receivables(aka shipments to customers) and it is likely you are going to see some sizeable writeoffs again from Yingli as they had in the recent past years

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    How much does Yingli really get for projects? They are building them for appx $1.10/watt and are getting a 15% gross return when sold. That is $0.17/watt. On 200 MW that is $34M. Now the question is are these 100% owned or partners? If partners presume half the profits go to others so they gross $17M.

    The real money is in owning the projects long term. This takes capital that Yingli does not have and the rate of return is very minimal over the first few years.

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    I do not look at Opex as a percent of shipments when looking at a companies operational efficiency. I prefer to look at their costs on a per watt shipment and compare to their peers.

    for Q2 yinli averaged $0.112/watt for Opex and $0.042 for interest. That is $0.154 in costs per watt

    Peers Trina is at $0.068 and $0.0085 for a total of $0.076 or half of YGE,. Then again this is total shipments and not just shipments for revenue.

    JKS is at $0.073 and $0.13 $0.017 for interest and a total of $0.09/watt shipped for revenue.

    For Q3 The numbers are better for Yingli as the costs are estimated(including project shipments) to drop to $0.133 down from $0.154.

    Peers Trian however drops from $0.076 to $0.071.

    JKS drops from $0.09 to $0.075(project included)

    I like to present this way because you can roughly estimate cost increases and you will notice that even though Yingli reduces Opex and interest per watt by appx 13%, their Opex and interest increases by roughly $8M to ~ $144M

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    Not all those 1100MW are shipped for revenues. By their own admission 165MW of projects in Q3 and likely similar rates in Q4. So reality is around 950MW shipped for revenue

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 30, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    not certain where you come up with the $800M + but at 15% GM you are looking at $120M gross profit. Current Q2 Opex and interest is at ~$135M and by your own admission going to go up with the added shipments.

  • Reply to

    Help!! Anyone good with Figures?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 20, 2014 3:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 28, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    I have not owned Yingli for several years. Their cost structures and debt reminds me of LDK albeit they ship modules and have better utilization rates than LDK had. In general though they had needed\ 20% gross margins on 1.1-1.2GW to break even due to an Opex that would climb to $100M and debt at $40M. Their projects are basically non existent until 2015. They will be keeping many of them. That will add some add gross profit for next year.

    By the way if you look at Property Plant and Equipment their nameplate capacity is at a cost of near 50% higher than most peers. That is a bad thing in my opinion and makes the costs higher by a penny or 2.

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