So funny and such a hack poster that is flat out lying to sound good. The nice thing about yahoo is you can go back and see what people have stated. Here you were stating back in June a cost of $5 and that you sold half at $12 yet now you say bought at $3 and sold 3/4 in the 30's. Something is amiss in these to statements. I like consistency in comments. You my sir do not have consistency. enough said
alex_iff • Jun 9, 2015 1:21 AM
my track record with CSIQ:
bought around $5 in 2013, sold 50% in $12 taking off the table both 40% gain and cost out initial investment. From those times made several swing trades with remaining free shares, 60% of them were losing, 40% winning. Just mfor the best of knowledge all shares I have are my gain with no respect to their price. Does it poor? Definitely an answer is yes though if I sell all CSIQ shares now my cumulative gain is going to be close to 450%.
Does it a poor track record? I have to agree - you are right - poor. I expected to make 1000%+ and I had this chance should I were able to ride waves more successfully.
Can you say something about your achievement?
Got to love yahoo message boards, give a spin that basically mimicks the analyst average estimates and the down trend that is their earnings estimates and you get 9 thumbs down.
Clearly a lot of people with blinders on
For the past 2 years their earnings have been in decline. 2015 is 30% lower than 2014 and 2016 estimates is now 30-40% lower than 2015. They have a large project pipeline that has been behind schedule for meeting buildouts for the past 2 years. They have made excuses such as managing cash with changing buisness strategies from buy and sell to holdo's and yieldcos . Now their last big purchase and dream of a Yieldco is near dead with no alternative but to try and sell some projects at low margins. Top it off they are likely going to lose much of their stated pipeline in Japan as they are YEARS behind on the proposed buildouts. They have given no clear view of how they are going to generate the cash and returns that were expected of these buildouts. The longer they hold them, the worse the sale is going to be. They need to articulate a good business stategy and how they will monetize their projects and how much they will get out of it. Right now if you look at FSLR, they expect $100M-$150M per GW. They have the lowest costs CSIQ will not get that return and does not have a 1GW per year pipeline ready to sell.
amazing how fast 3 thumbs down gets on the posts. Within minutes. It is almost like they have cron jobs looking for specific posters and the new posts then giving them a thumbs down.
Yes Hial Hitler the commadante kicked many people off his board for anyone who may challenge his views with alternative data and perspective.
I do not know how professional his board was back then as he allowed a few favored to continuously talk down others and call them names. That was before he went fee based of which I paid for for 1 month and left as it was useless.
He sensors his site and many people left when he went to a fee base as there was no perceived value. You still see comments around from a variety of former members that suggest there is little value on that sight with to many like views causing people to get caught in bad timed investments. There are still people moving away from his board these days and suggesting paying to discuss solar with others when there is no hard data value is not worthy.
There are very few solar analysts I trust. The ones I do trust, I stay in communications with and discuss the markets and directions and trades.
And that June 9th post sounds more credible because you have indicated your trading method it to buy low and sell half after a double. Oh and there are posts where you stated you bought at 27 and were holding for 200 in 2 to 3 years. So you are down near 25% on those shares as well.
excuse me, the will be losing money since they paid $265M. Buying an asset for $265M, then building thier project pipelne for $225M in net profit is a losing investment. I do not see how they make 100% on the $265M investment. Creative accounting like Sun Edison?
"As for earnings they beat them, as for guidance - listen dude, you know how the ws works."
Really they always beat? They made $173M or about 2.88 fully diluted. Where is the $5 $6 or more that Dydo and others were saying they were going to make? For that matter where is the 20% margins on projects they also claimed for the Recurrent portfolio ? There is not never were those kinds of numbers. They came in far closer to Gordo than to anyone else that was expecting the moon this year. Their 2016 guidance is terrible. They need to start selling off their projects and taking the 10%15% gross. 500MW at $1.80 is a cool $900M with gross in the $90-$140M range. That is needed to get to $2 in EPS this year.
a while back that guidance and earnings were going to suck. Lower margins, little project sales to prop up the margins like the past 3 years, terrible ER. I just do not why they do not start selling now their projects. The Yieldco's are destroyed now that the model has been exposed as a ponzi scheme with the Sponsors on top
Don;t you short the stocks a bunch? I was reading some of your posts on another message board regarding SUNE.
That is what happened between 2014 and 2015 when the world screamed how great solars were going to do. Now expect another 20% earnings decline in 2016 over 2015. I am curious what 2017 and 18 hold when the average selling price for projects falls to $1.20 down from $2.25 CSIQ claims in their comments. The tide has shifted back to being an efficienct manufacturer and that is not CSIQ.
Amazing how a stock can trade in the 16-26 range for the past year, analysts lower earnings expectations by 30% over the prior year yet give it a target of what $34? The $34 was deserving when they were pulling down $4 a share but this is a low margin commodity business in which earnings can turn south very quickly even when volume shipments are increasing. This company is going to make 50% less in 2016 than they did in 2014 with volume shipments increase 100%. That is not a good sign.
I buy and sell in CSIQ, JKS, FSLR, I used to trade in JASO, TSL until their buyout offers capped them. I do not trade in SUNE or SCTY(read my comments on SA as to why) nor did I ever trade in GTAT(US manfacturers be darned). I do not invest in Yieldcos as they are BS accounting gimicks in disguise. I have not traded in SOL for over 3 years as the president was caught basically lying and I told everyone that Yingli was a dying horse as was LDK.
and by the way, unlike you, I do not short or spread mistruths about my trading as posted today regarding your great exaggerations on your CSIQ trading skills.
I mean the magic word last year was Yieldco. SSay the word and your stock would sky rocket. Now that that word is TOXIC, where does that leave CSIQ and their Recurrent portfolio they paid $300M for? 10% margins on $2Billion in revenue on a buy and sell? It does not even cover the $300M spent to buy them. LOL
They also state they wisll generate some $50-$60M in cash from the projects just by holding them and taking the revenue. That is not profit but is cash generation that would have been given in Dividends in a Yieldco.
Now down the buck 80's down from a . revised down low 2's which is down from the 3's. The trend should continue all the way down to $1-$1.50. And that $1-$1.50 includes the several hundred MW of projects they may sell. Smack a PE of 8 on that and you have a reasonable price target of $8-$12
And just for clairvoyance, how did that $5 minimum EPS in 2015 turn out and your $5 for $2016 that Recurrent was bringing in. Those were your comments after the acquisitions as it was most everyones (not mine)