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Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 104 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 7:48 AM Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Guidance a look at Q3 Q4 and 2015

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 14, 2014 8:43 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 14, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    Page 2:
    Q4
    Based on Full year guidance you are looking at $800-$1Billion in revenue.
    Module shipments based on remaining guidance would be between 700 and 800MW
    Presume module sales similar to Q2/Q3 rates or slightly up to 600 MW
    Presume a 2 cent drop $0.65 as modules to Japan drop and increased China business
    Puts module sales at $390M
    Project sales at $410M-$610M
    Midrange $510M or 56% of revenues

    How it maps to the year guidance to be appx 50% of revenues
    Total Solutions = 128/205/395/510= $1.288b = 44% of revenues

    If they achieve the $610M in Q4 then that is 49% of revenues or roughly 50%

    From this one could presume that Q4 revenue will be better than Q3 by a high end range of of $200M.

    20% margins look likely.
    The upside is $200M Gross in Q4 with expenses rising to around $65M and interest at $15M.
    Year end bonus pushes Opex and Interest to $85M
    earnings before taxes $115M upside.
    Tax at 10% they Net $103.5M o
    60M share
    $1.72.

    Upside year = .07/.95/1.5/1.72 = $4.24 post share dilution.
    They diluted some 12-13% so earning should be mid $4.60 prior to dilution and added interest.

    The downside prior to adjustments should be appx $0.50 for Q4 or $1.25
    Slap a trailing PE of 10 on that and you should be at $40-42

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 14, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    About this time last year I started giving peaks into 2015 on what could come.

    Here is an extraction of the remainder of 2014 and a preliminary peak into 2015 for CSIQ. The numbers for 2015 I consider as conservative based on backlogs and market growth.

    Page 1

    2014 remainder of the year - Here are some outtakes I find interesting.

    General Summary
    It appears that when stating shipments of modules, they are including shipments to their own projects.
    It appears that module sales for revenues is flat around the 580MW +/- for the year
    It appears that Q4 revenue based on Year guidance should be between $800M to $1Billion
    It appears that the margins should maintain at the 20% level.
    It appears that Net in Q4 could be between $1.33 and $1.85 per share depending on taxes and adjustments + low end and high end revenue meets.

    Q3
    Revenu $623.8M
    Total Busines solution appx 33%
    Revenue from modules $419M
    Revenue from Total Solutions $205M
    ASP $0.70 for Q2
    Modules shipped for Revenue = 419/.70 = 598.5MW
    Q3 Modules 740MW
    Q3 revenue = $790M
    Q3 ASP = $0.67
    Half revenue to be projects =$395M
    Module Revenue = $395
    Module shipment for revenue= 589MW
    Gross Profit 20% = $158M
    Module Cost $0.50
    Module Gross .17/watt
    Module Gross $100M
    Tariff impact $20M
    Gross $80M
    Project Gross $78M = 19.7% GM
    Total Gross $180M
    Opex $65
    Interest $15
    Before Tax and adjustments $100M
    After Tax $90M
    60M shares
    EPS $1.50

    These number could be flipped and it may be possible that more revenue than 50% is from Total solutions to reach the 50% overall for the year.

    What it looks like is MW for revenue are flattened for Q3 from Q2 while more goes to projects.

  • Reply to

    Guidance a look at Q3 Q4 and 2015

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 14, 2014 8:43 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 14, 2014 8:51 AM Flag

    Page 3:

    2015
    Based on market demand growth forcasts of 20% for 2015

    Recognize 60% of the 1.3GW backlog in 2015 that is 780MW
    blend ASP of $2.75 for EPC/Owned or $2.1B at 18% margins
    Gross Profit $378M

    Module growth of 15% growth on 2.2GW is 2.54GW.
    blended $0.62 ASP that is $1.57B at 22% margins.
    Gross profig $345M

    Preliminary 2015 Revenue likely $3.6B with ~20% margins.
    Gross profits $720M
    Opex rising slightly to $70M average per Q
    interest steady at $15
    total expenses $340M
    Income before Taxes and adjustments Roughly $360M
    Net $324 before other adjustments
    Current shares 60M
    Estimates $5.40/share before adjustments

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 12, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    I am expecting Q2 will net around $31M. Based on the back end loading, they need to ship over 600MW of modules and pull in some 120MW + of projects and guide to $775M in revenues. Margins will need to be guided upwards of 20% projects included. Problem I see is tariffs can eat into profits for the back half of the year by some $0.35 cents.

  • Reply to

    initial yieldco valuation of just $500 mln

    by hageneriksson Jul 30, 2014 7:30 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 30, 2014 8:08 AM Flag

    That all depends on how you look at things for Jinko. 800MW of projects cost $960M. 75% financed is $240M. Jinko is now a majority owner with virtually zero dollars invested. Using your numbers Jinko just got $260M in valuation for nothing. The revenue generation should be $4.80/watt at $0.16/kwhr. At 40%margins for roof top they should net before taxes around $1.92/watt. That is $1.56B profits before taxes or $1.3B in additional assets. At 55% ownership that is $715M in profit plus $528M in cash returned from depreciation. They will generate $1.235B dollars over the next 20 years of shareholder value from virtually zero capital investment fromt he 800MW. That is $55M or $1 a share in shareholder equity anually for $20 years. They should generate up to $1Billion in cash if they are ground mount systems.

    So Jinko just added future assets of $1.235 to $1.55B to their books. That is how Solar City is being evaluated based on their long term lease revenue generations.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 26, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    The tariff impacts take 3-5% off margins.
    The increase in shipments to China takes 2-3% off margins
    The ASP collapse in Japan takes 2-3%
    The global ASP at $0.60 takes 2-3%
    bottom line serious downward pressure on ASP is cutting margins a couple % below mid teens
    And it takes projects to get to 15%.

    not the brightest sun in the world

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 26, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    If you look at it in general, they should gross 12.6% margins after tariff impacts and increased China shipments on a blended ASP that is likely around $0.62. Add in 10% kits at 16% margins and then the project sales, you should have earnings estimates of ~$770M and gross margins in the 13.7% range. That should lead to a gross profit of ~ $106M and net in the $20-$25M range. Opex around $72M and interest in the $10M range.

    disclosure my Q2 estimates were high by $0.04 fully diluted.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    This company is the special of the day on the local upscale Chinese Restaurant. ... Dog Meet.

    The Q3 guidance cut basically makes this years growth a 15% increase. Over last year. With the majority of that increase being their own projects. That means global shipments to customers grew at a paltry 6.5% based on current guidance. This is around 3300MW.

    Market growth outside of China growing at 15-20% this year means Yingli lost market share. A similar growth for 2015 is going to add around 275MW bringing shipments to 3.575GW. Costs flat in the $0.47 range and an ASP in the $0.62 range they make $0.15 per watt or $536M on a bullish upside. They make another $50M on their owned projects for a total gross of $575-$600M.

    Opex and interest today is $117M/Q not including RnD. This will grow to $122M per Q in 2015. Add $15M in RnD per Q (lower than Q2) and you have quarterly costs of $135M or $530M in costs. The module business would be break even operationally and they may make $50M or so from projects. After taxes, they will be lucky to make $0.20 in per share in Net profits in 2015 while shipping 4.5GW of total projects.

    That is the bullish scenario I see for 2015. The bear drops 3 cents in gross profits which wipes out $105M in gross profits and turns the year to a $0.50 loss.

    That is why this company is dog meat

  • Reply to

    tough to meet full year guidance

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 12, 2014 6:18 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 12, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    The positive was the Cell costs for the US and for tolling paid. SOL used to have top pay $0.16-$0.18 for wafer to cell tolling. That made their costs $0.36-$0.38 for cells creating higher Module costs. With the saturation of cells in the market they can now lower the module cost by $0.03 plus their 1 cent other cost lowering. That $0.60 cost should drop to $0.58 with blended being 2 cents lower. With the average ASP climb to $0.67 gives the $0.011 gross per watt and margin improvement to 16.5%. The gross profit should push closer to $60M and break even operationally.

    Break even with negative cash flow is not something to brag about nor be rewarded for since ASP is likely to decline

  • Reply to

    why framework pr

    by jiang1118 Jul 21, 2014 8:00 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 21, 2014 8:08 AM Flag

    yep 10 months after suggesting they were not chasing projects so they could focus cash where needed which was for their core buisiness they flip flop again......

    poly plant moth balled half
    wafer facility shuttered a couple hunderred MW of mono(now in demand)
    Cell decided not to enter and as such has lower margins
    Modules mostly built from high priced cells
    Wire saws was to save $40M a year and sell to others
    Inverters - negligeable revenue after 1.5 years
    LED lighting - not clear value or volumes
    Now project building oversees(cuz in China they can;t afford to build due to no cell capacity)

  • Reply to

    Yingli or Trina?

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 11, 2014 1:45 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 12, 2014 7:19 AM Flag

    yingli ships 1GW and they lose $70M Trina ships 1GW and they earn $0.40

  • Reply to

    Up to 60-75 Million new shares

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 17, 2014 7:40 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 21, 2014 7:47 AM Flag

    Depends what language you speak. An ADS share traded in the US(~102M) is 2 common shares.

    “ADSs” refers to American depositary shares, each of which represents two of our shares, and “ADRs” refers to American
    depositary receipts that may evidence the ADSs"

    "As of July 10, 2014, we are authorized to issue a maximum of 600,000,000 no par value shares of a single class, and the
    number of shares issued and outstanding is 204,346,064 among which 693,968 shares represented by 346,984 ADSs were held by
    The Bank of New York Mellon, our depositary for the ADSs, for future exercise or vest of awards under our share incentive plan."

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 19, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    I take that as a positive sign as of 2 years ago, there were around 2 anaylsts following solar. I remember a CSUN con call in which there was ZERO questions asked. Zero, Nada, Zilch Zippo, nobody cared to hear what they had to say and to get any clarifications or information on the market segments and environment.

  • Reply to

    Guidance a look at Q3 Q4 and 2015

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 14, 2014 8:43 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 15, 2014 7:24 AM Flag

    What the numbers may be pointing out is that the first half of the year, they were shipping roughly 50MW per Q to internal owned projects and the rest to EPC work(recognized as module sales) and customer module sales.

    The numbers ramping might imply greater EPC work and project status that now that summer is in full swing is in later stages of build out and taking modules for them. This sets a target of what may appear to be 100-200MW over the next 2 quaters each that are being finished up and will go into a commissioning phase for either Q4 sales or 1H 2015 sales.

    This rate of installation would be reasonable for a 2015 target of 60% of the current backlog 1.3GW being sold in 2015.

  • Reply to

    Up to 60-75 Million new shares

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 17, 2014 7:40 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 21, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    perhaps but how is the fundamentals changing to drive that? SOL has high costs as they do not make cells and make modules over seas to sell oversees. Their volumes and margins suggest that profitability is borderline if at all this year.

  • Reply to

    Question?

    by drh21530 Aug 14, 2014 1:09 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 15, 2014 7:13 AM Flag

    So what value doe you place on a profitable company with many physical assets(projects) not located in China that has earning of $0.95 and is projected to have 1.20 and $1.60 for the next to quarters with revenue growth going from $630M to $790M to $1Billion?

    And what do you value a company that at a conservative view should be pulling in $3Billion in 2015 and roughly $5+ a share?

    These guys have a business model similar to Sunpower but they are actually highly profitable and growing. They also have a business plan that makes money unlike SUNE.

    So ask yourself if the $25 it was at was justified to begin with? I understand the volume shooting up along with the price but as noted many brokerage houses have an overwieght and price targets well over $40 a share.

  • Reply to

    WOW! Now that is a beat!

    by happyperson_1 Aug 13, 2014 7:33 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 13, 2014 7:35 AM Flag

    yes sir and guidance is HUGE 20% margins on $800M. They should be pushing over $1.25 in profits next Q

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 27, 2014 7:52 AM Flag

    Not very good as they have revised down an average of 400MW all for shipment revenues. This was from basically 3.6GW. These guys are not going to make money this year unless they sell some significant power plants.

  • Reply to

    Guidance a look at Q3 Q4 and 2015

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 14, 2014 8:43 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 15, 2014 7:17 AM Flag

    There is a correction I incorrectly labeled Q2 derived revenue breakouts as Q3
    the section to start

    Q3
    Revenu $623.8M
    Total Busines solution appx 33%
    Revenue from modules $419M
    Revenue from Total Solutions $205M
    ASP $0.70 for Q2
    Modules shipped for Revenue = 419/.70 = 598.5MW

    Should read
    Q2
    Revenu $623.8M
    Total Busines solution appx 33%
    Revenue from modules $419M
    Revenue from Total Solutions $205M
    ASP $0.70 for Q2
    Modules shipped for Revenue = 419/.70 = 598.5MW

  • Reply to

    My Take margins collapsing

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 18, 2014 9:13 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Aug 18, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    A 2% hit on margins with an increase of 80MW of modules should add around $1M to net over Q2. Add slight increase in gross from projects and they might be sniffing around $0.04 increase on fully diluted net.

YGE
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