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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 71 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2014 8:08 AM Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    why framework pr

    by jiang1118 Jul 21, 2014 8:00 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 21, 2014 8:08 AM Flag

    yep 10 months after suggesting they were not chasing projects so they could focus cash where needed which was for their core buisiness they flip flop again......

    poly plant moth balled half
    wafer facility shuttered a couple hunderred MW of mono(now in demand)
    Cell decided not to enter and as such has lower margins
    Modules mostly built from high priced cells
    Wire saws was to save $40M a year and sell to others
    Inverters - negligeable revenue after 1.5 years
    LED lighting - not clear value or volumes
    Now project building oversees(cuz in China they can;t afford to build due to no cell capacity)

  • Reply to

    Up to 60-75 Million new shares

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 17, 2014 7:40 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 21, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    perhaps but how is the fundamentals changing to drive that? SOL has high costs as they do not make cells and make modules over seas to sell oversees. Their volumes and margins suggest that profitability is borderline if at all this year.

  • Reply to

    Up to 60-75 Million new shares

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 17, 2014 7:40 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 21, 2014 7:47 AM Flag

    Depends what language you speak. An ADS share traded in the US(~102M) is 2 common shares.

    “ADSs” refers to American depositary shares, each of which represents two of our shares, and “ADRs” refers to American
    depositary receipts that may evidence the ADSs"

    "As of July 10, 2014, we are authorized to issue a maximum of 600,000,000 no par value shares of a single class, and the
    number of shares issued and outstanding is 204,346,064 among which 693,968 shares represented by 346,984 ADSs were held by
    The Bank of New York Mellon, our depositary for the ADSs, for future exercise or vest of awards under our share incentive plan."

  • Reply to

    Up to 60-75 Million new shares

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 17, 2014 7:40 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 20, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    Thanks for the compliment on my intelligence. I always appreciate that from newbies that show up with new id's a few days old complaining about all the other posters throwing grenades. But to the point even a convertible will dilute 50% or more as the interest accrued over 3 to 5 years will not justify a price point that is anything more than a $4 conversion.

  • Reply to

    Anyone else looking forward to earnings?

    by livingstpr22 Jul 18, 2014 12:34 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 19, 2014 7:45 AM Flag

    Yes, I am looking forward to earnings. I am looking for $40M net before any adjustments and wroteoffs with increased sales and profits in the 3rd and 4th quarter.

  • Reply to

    Up to 60-75 Million new shares

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 17, 2014 7:40 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 19, 2014 7:43 AM Flag

    ///The form just says they will try to raise up to $150m sometime in the near future, to fund continuing operations///

    So what your saying is continuing operations can not fund itself, that they need to go to market to get money to continue to operate?

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 17, 2014 8:01 AM Flag

    China-US anti-dumping ruling announced soon, the market waiting to see meaning strong, demand continues to slump in July, inventory to slow, resulting in an overall industry chain inventory levels are still high. Global market research firm TrendForce's new energy research department EnergyTrend quotes show that the recent significant decline in the market price, and some offer even below the industry's breakeven point, also affecting the OEM price to the lowest point in the near future.

    In part of the battery, the current offer efficient products polycrystalline US $ fall near 0.35/watt, lowest to US $ 0.32/watt, in the vicinity of the standard US $ 0.33/watt, lowest to US $ 0.3/watt; monocrystalline products Most prices remain above the US $ 0.4/watt, less affected. As the lowest offer polycrystalline efficient components have come US $ 0.55/watt, while the standard is slipping to US $ 0.52/watt, while the single-crystal components is maintained at US0.6/watt more

  • Polaris Solar PV Network News : Recently, the town of Haining City Branch Crystal Power Co. 250MWp solar photovoltaic power plant project is approved, the total investment of 2.51 billion yuan, all of the funds required for the additional registered capital, is the scale of investment in Haining City the biggest projects for the record.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 17, 2014 7:40 AM Flag

    seems to be what they may be pushing into the market to raise the $150 Million in the SEC filing

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 27, 2014 7:11 AM Flag

    when this thing corrects to earnings reality vs the pipe dreams. They are losing money using GAAP accounting and barely making a nickel using paperbook non GAAP numbers.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    You may not view it this way, but Solar panels in some areas of the US has increased the cost of a 5KW system by $1,500 or 10%. This is due to 1 the increase in the ASP by $0.10 due to the tarrif and the $4-$5 a month line maintenance charges many states are starting to allow power companies to implement for solar owners. That 10% will cost Solar City a sizeable portion of their profits in the sales pitches or reduce the amount of return that is the incentive for homeowners to lease systems. The homeowners that have been buying their systems have been doing it to remove the high cost power charges in some states. As the service charges roll across the country to other states, this will be a negative for demand.

    For example the Carolinas are selling retail at $0.12 per watt. Solar Grid attached at a cost of $3/watt does not make sense as it cost $0.10/watt. With finance charges the cost of solar is not even retail grid parity. If you now add $0.015 more in costs, then even the those that want to save the world will be de-incentivised.

  • Reply to

    Something to think about on Guidance (%)

    by stocksleuthcom Jun 17, 2014 8:43 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 17, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    No Opex guidance did not surprise me. You have to look at wordsmithing and the impact of increased volumes when dealing with Yingli. If say they are at $76M in Opex today or $0.11/watt, then next Q with shipments at 900MW, they can add roughly $5-8M you have Opex at say $84M. However that is on 900MW shipped or $0.933. That technically is a decrease as a % of revenue and will be a decrease per watt sold of $0.167. That puts a decline in Opex at 15% per watt shipped but is an actual increase on Opex overal from the prior Q.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 17, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    They indicated Opex will be lower in Q2 vs Q1 after removal of the Write down. That is a misleading statement in my opinion. They are around $0.11 in opex. By increasing primarily shipments to China, Opex will rise around $5M on the 200MW. That places Opex around $80-$81M or an increase. However if you look at it as a percentage of shipments and revenues, due to increased shipments, the drop should be down to around $0.09 or just under 20% decrease on a per watt basis

  • Reply to

    Something to think about on Guidance (%)

    by stocksleuthcom Jun 17, 2014 8:43 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 17, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Right and that is 420MW above current shipments which at 15% GM would generate roughly $40M. That places them at around break even if they hold costs in line. They will likely have increase in Opex of $15M , so they could be at an loss for each quarter this year. This does not include any of the projects revenues they may get but does include profits of near $$10M per Q for shipments to their own internal projects. This would imply potential loss of $10M-$20M in Q3 and Q4.

  • Reply to

    30-50% of new shipments was to be the US

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 8, 2014 10:00 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 8, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    What happens if there is now 2GW of modules that are not cost competative in the US and need to divert to other countries? You are talking about finding new homes for those modules and they will have to give on ASP to get the demand. Not only Jinko but others as well. 2GW to a market of 46GW. Take away China and the US at 17GW and the 2GW is a 7% of the market that needs to be absorbed. To spur that demand to soak the inventory up, prices will be lower across the board in those other markets

  • Reply to

    30-50% of new shipments was to be the US

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 8, 2014 10:00 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 8, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    I have made no comment on the margins. But if you look at say a 70 cent ASP as being part of their blended ASP at 20% shipments and a 48 cent processing cost, they were making $0.22/watt to the US or 31% gross margins The gross profits they were looking at making were close to $66M or driving near $1 a share in EPS. If tarrifs are in place, then the ASP rises to almost $1 making their modules not cost competative. You now have product that is not cost competative unless you give on the ASP and wipe out your margins. This is true not only for JKS but to a greater extent an issue for Yingli and Trina that rely on heavy US sales.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 8, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    If you look at the 600-800MW growth JKS was forcasting and the fact that in 2013 the US shipments was

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 5, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    I do not see it as a double standard. SUNE is an American company with most of its hard assets in the US including money it raises. The Chinese solars are a paper holding company in the Caymen Islands with little to no assets in the US. All the assets and the monies raised is going to China and is basically untouchable by US ADR shareholders. So your diluting shares and raising assets for something that is of little intrinsic value other than stating look we made money, you can't touch any of it. Just look at LDK and Suntech for proof. Intrinsic value was sold off to a local Chinese player and no money went back to the shareholders.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 5, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    your looking at a near 25% dilution if the convertible senior notes. They will be over $100M shares when converted.

  • Poor timing and filing. I understand the need to help pay for capacity expansion and plants they plan on owning. Should impact earnings by near $9M in interest or $0.10 a share lower the the ~$1 in eps as some estimates are. A 12% dilution should wack the stock 10-12%.

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