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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 114 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    The latest solar selloff. What are your theories?

    by zangnut Sep 30, 2014 3:49 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 15 hours ago Flag

    Jaso is marginally profitable. They will be crushed by the Cell price collapse that was propped up by high Taiwan demand due to tariffs They do not ship enough modules yet to come close to offsetting the cell price drops.

  • Reply to

    The latest solar selloff. What are your theories?

    by zangnut Sep 30, 2014 3:49 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 15 hours ago Flag

    I am not buying CSIQ or JKS at this point. I believe JKS is fairly priced in the range of $27-$32 and would be a buy in the low to mid $20's. I stated that several months back and nothing has changed. CSIQ had strong profits last Q and should be significantly stronger in Q3 and Q4. The pace of earnings should suggest that mid 30's is reasonably priced. Their pipeline maturity should allow for reasonably stable earnings except for the slight seasonality that slows acceptance and builds.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 15 hours ago Flag

    Yes sentiment trading. Way to much bravado a few weeks back was a sell signal. Another couple days of dire dropping and whinning will be the buy signal. Always start buying 2 or 2 days after the secondary trashes the stock.

  • Reply to

    Purpose of the capital raise..

    by zangnut Sep 30, 2014 1:11 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 15 hours ago Flag

    No speaka le changlish bable.

    But all you are doing is spewing some bable about market growth which I pointed out in Sept of 2013 for 2 years out. I do know as you do they have a target of 3.6-3.8GW in 2014 for module capacity. It is speculated the market is going to be between 12-14GW 13GW midrange in China in 2014. Global demand this year is expected to be 48GW +/- depending on analysts and on China actual. Some have suggested as high as 52GW.

    Rumors have targets of 15-16GW in China for 2015. And global growth of 15%+/-. This means that in 2015 the global market will grow 2-3GW in China and roughly 4-5GW in the rest of the World. China gets 100% of China growth 2.5GW and 65% of the rest of the world growth or roughly 3GW. Total market for Chinese is some 4.5-6GW growth
    .
    If Trina and Yingli take 20% each of that share it is roughly 900MW to 1.2GW growth year over year equal to 2014. The growth in China will be primarily owned project driven that should account for 500MW over 2014 growth. That indicates shipping for revenue will increase some 400-600MW in 2015.

    As for Capacity expansions, I bet they start sourcing from GCL cells as GCL is rapidly expanding into both cells and modules from just Poly to wafer. If they do not, they need roughly $30M per 100MW of vertical capacity. Inventory float for net 90 days is $15M plus another $15M in the pipeline for manufacturing. So for every 100MW expanding, they require $66M. 500MW is $380M. Financed of inventory and AR they have a cash need of $72M. Just for that 500MW. Potentially $150M for 1GW. That other 500MW of needed expansion(outsourced).

    Take project ownership into account and they burn $25M per 100MW. On the 800Mw of projects in the pipeline for 2015 that is another $200M + $800M in debt. You are now talking cash needs of well over $300M out of their pockets to fund operations through 2015. They are not generating anywhere near that amount of cash from operations.

  • Reply to

    Purpose of the capital raise..

    by zangnut Sep 30, 2014 1:11 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 20 hours ago Flag

    I hold all the JKS and CSIQ I want to own. I would believe based on earnings potential vs current share price, that Trina has better share appreciation than the others if buying in the $10 to $11 a share range. Same comments I made back on August 27th based on earnings potentials.

  • Reply to

    I agree partially

    by alex_iff Sep 30, 2014 9:10 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 20 hours ago Flag

    That sounds like last dilution comments. Never sniffed $15.

  • Reply to

    The latest solar selloff. What are your theories?

    by zangnut Sep 30, 2014 3:49 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 20 hours ago Flag

    Actually from an investment standpoint, I prefer TSL over JKS and have for several months. Here is what I stated on August 27th. Which is still my view......

    The Top point issue, bad management. Never speak a done deal and a cost when it was never a done deal. Egg in face not in rice bowl embarassment.

    "I believe JKS and CSIQ are better ran.

    I do believe that Trina is now back in the black and will continue to slowly improve. I do believe that Trina may have better upside as a % appreciation than JKS. Not much has changed on my outlook for earnings for 2014 and 2015. At $18 a share a little while back they were overpriced for growth prospects in my opinion stated on this board. At $11 they were reasonable priced for some share appreciation based on future earnings. I still hold to the mid $1.5 +/- for 2015 biased downside ."

  • Reply to

    Purpose of the capital raise..

    by zangnut Sep 30, 2014 1:11 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 30, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Yes solars are great for spike and drop buying and selling if you can time it right. If not they have not been to bad for buy and hold. Up 20-30% if you bought late August early Sept of 2013, up nearly 500 % bought 2 years ago. But as you noted you can make 20-40% several times over if you buy and sell.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 30, 2014 7:55 AM Flag

    for their offerings. This company is becoming there own worst enemy as the need cash to expand and execute while their profits are low and stock is low. This results in many more shares offered to get a meager injection of cash for their needs. They will be going to the well several times over in the next year plus as cash generation does not come close to cash needs to fund the business

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 30, 2014 7:49 AM Flag

    There are multiple issues in play here.

    The first is being capacity constrained and needing growth. If you look at Cell capacity, the company now needs to increase it to get the full utilization and margin impact from the US tariff decisions. There had been an imbalance.

    The second point is also current module growth and 2015 target needs for capacity expansion that should be in the 15 to 20% expansion. That is pushing upwards of 800MW alone for 2015. Using past costs for capacity expansion They would require $320M+ to add the capacity and another $300M to fill inventory and AR from said increases. Those costs have been cut in half as of recent. This means the company still needs $300M plus to support the shipment growth they need for 2015 alone. If they can finance 70-80% of that requirement, they need some $90M to execute the expansion.

    The third point is owned projects being built in the UK needs financing. This needs to float $2/watt in costs or some $160M. Again financing at 80% oversees places a cash need for $32M.

    The final point is projects in China. According to some companies, the Chinese owned projects need to be 100% funded. Once connected they then get the loans at a 70-80% funding. That means in China per 100MW they need to come up with $110M in cash. If they have several hudred MW going at the same time they need $200-$300M to revolve over time. Growing projects up front is expensive business.

    The part that is real fishy is the lending of 5Million shares to third parties that will sell the shares to hedge short. They area adding 8% to the treadeable float and getting little dollar value for this.

  • Reply to

    With over 100mw avg daily shipments

    by unclespeaking Sep 29, 2014 1:08 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 29, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    do the math $0.08-$0.10 gross per watt.

  • Reply to

    SolarMax

    by ajasanta2 Sep 17, 2014 6:09 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 19, 2014 8:10 AM Flag

    No sour grapes. I do not own and will not own until their business model is changed by adding cell capacity. However they can not afford to add the cell capacity needed as they do not have $300M + to invest in capital equipment for cell capacity.

    They are slowly beeing taken out of markets due to their cost structures and competitiveness. There are other Tier 1 companies that are beating them on price and finance terms that the company can not match due to the fact they are not verticle and are strapped for cash these days. This is why SOL indicated guidance for shipments was going to be down significantly from the initial guidance. Not because of slow China demand that they never really were targeting due to costs but due to increased competition abroad.

  • Reply to

    SolarMax

    by ajasanta2 Sep 17, 2014 6:09 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 17, 2014 7:48 AM Flag

    What does this company spend RnD on? They make their own inverters right? Why OEM and ship direct to others someone elses unless your products do not work? Remember wires for wiresaws, nothing from them or the LED lights

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 17, 2014 7:26 AM Flag

    lots of standard uncle bable that basically suggests guidance.

    1: effective capacity is around 1.1GW for Q3 based on 125% utilization and close to 1.2GW for Q4. The inventory on hand at $0.38 material cost per watt is roughly 1.18GW. In line with general historical inventory needs.

    2: They generally carry 1 quarters inventory so based on Q4 shipment growth between 1.1GW and 1.2GW, the inventory should be $450M+

    3: full capacity places them around 3.7GW(midrange) for total year shipments depending on ramp timing to 3.8GW . Shipments for revenue recognition is much less at around 3.2GW.

    but that is a lot of bable about nothing as earnings is what matters. Atleast based on share price market expects some from Trina while they do not for Yingli.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 16, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    My appologies wrong line in the balance sheet. They have some $450M in inventory which is enough to make roughly 1 quarters production + project inventory not 1 months.

  • Reply to

    Reports Poly cost to 165 RMB

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 4:15 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 16, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    during good times and a loaded cost of $18-$20 after writing off $200M

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 16, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    panic and fear , they have $110M in inventory and $53M in prepayments to suppliers. That $100M of inventory will make about 1 months production run, the other payments a half a month. The only thing that may be written off is their Poly commitments oversees due to tariffs in China.

  • Reply to

    Reports Poly cost to 165 RMB

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 4:15 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    Polaris Solar PV Network News : September by strong end demand and other factors, the recent transaction price of domestic polysilicon resume its rally began to rise, the current high-quality polysilicon transaction price reached 163 yuan / kg (including tax, the same below), part of the polysilicon price reached 165 yuan / kg of high years.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    This company is the special of the day on the local upscale Chinese Restaurant. ... Dog Meet.

    The Q3 guidance cut basically makes this years growth a 15% increase. Over last year. With the majority of that increase being their own projects. That means global shipments to customers grew at a paltry 6.5% based on current guidance. This is around 3300MW.

    Market growth outside of China growing at 15-20% this year means Yingli lost market share. A similar growth for 2015 is going to add around 275MW bringing shipments to 3.575GW. Costs flat in the $0.47 range and an ASP in the $0.62 range they make $0.15 per watt or $536M on a bullish upside. They make another $50M on their owned projects for a total gross of $575-$600M.

    Opex and interest today is $117M/Q not including RnD. This will grow to $122M per Q in 2015. Add $15M in RnD per Q (lower than Q2) and you have quarterly costs of $135M or $530M in costs. The module business would be break even operationally and they may make $50M or so from projects. After taxes, they will be lucky to make $0.20 in per share in Net profits in 2015 while shipping 4.5GW of total projects.

    That is the bullish scenario I see for 2015. The bear drops 3 cents in gross profits which wipes out $105M in gross profits and turns the year to a $0.50 loss.

    That is why this company is dog meat

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Sep 11, 2014 7:57 AM Flag

    Peng has resigned as Chairman of the board and Mr. Tong the president and CEO has taken over as temporary Chairman.

CSIQ
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