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JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 61 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 6, 2015 8:50 PM Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jan 6, 2015 8:50 PM Flag

    Price is Quite simply ludicrous. This company is at exactly where I stated they would be for sales and earnings 2 years ago based on my Veterans view of PANW. They have lost $250M over the last 4 ER's using standard accounting practices. Yet they boast non GAAP earnings of $37M and $0.15 in the last quarter.

    The growth is decelerating and the profits are not manifesting themselves. The cash generation is from selling stock and more stock at prices far below markets. This stock is poised for a steep decline based on fundamental growth and earnings 2 years out

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 31, 2014 9:01 PM Flag

    As I noted a way to funnel money back to LDK. The latest PR give LDK $11Million in cash.

  • Reply to

    This is a Dog of a company

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 28, 2014 8:36 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 29, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Man that was my most informative post ever :)

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  • Reply to

    600 MW of projects to be completed this year

    by chrisceeaustin Dec 17, 2014 3:17 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 28, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    windfall by stock appreciation or by dividend distribution? The comment was shareholder value aka equity........

  • Reply to

    SOL anyone buying

    by nysetalk Dec 23, 2014 10:58 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 26, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    Why? This is a doormat of the chinese solar companies with flawed business models and failed executions. They have some of the highest costs and maintained margins only because they target high ASP area that they can turn a profit in. This is limiting their growth prospects as noted in their quarter over quarter decrease in modules shipments and year over year flat module sales when the global markets have grown 15 to 20%.

    Due to their lack of verticalized manufacturing, their costs of some of the least competative and they can not target the future emerging markets where the ASP is under $0.60.

  • Reply to

    SOL showing signs of life

    by chase4money Dec 19, 2014 12:52 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 22, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    5 years ago, they were a wafer manufacturer. Today they still have only 60MW per quarter of cell capacity. They had invested in wire saw blades 3 to 4 years ago and were going to sell them. This was to save them $40M a quarter in production costs. They entered Poly only to write off $200M in investments. They have entered LED light business and after 2 years has very little revenue to recognize from that effort, They are now in inverters yet have limited sales

  • Reply to

    SOL showing signs of life

    by chase4money Dec 19, 2014 12:52 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 22, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Fast and loose? wafers are down 50% for sales year over year and module shipment is flat year over year. Rene Sola is the only company with flat module sales from Q3 13 to Q314 while wafer shipments declined 50%. So where is the increased use of the missing 200MW of wafers? Not going to modules that were shipping for revenue recognition that is for sure

  • Reply to

    SOL showing signs of life

    by chase4money Dec 19, 2014 12:52 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 21, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    LOL, SOL is a company like LDK that has diversified out of it's core market segments, spent tens of millions on RnD efforts that has zero competative advantages and spent hundreds of millions on a Poly plant that they shuttered. They wanna be a module manufacture company but they have zero competative advantage and procure all their cells from the open markets. Their costs are very high because of this as they pay tolling to get their wafers made into cells. This costs SOL above market rates for Multi cells than just buying on the open market. So they buy on the open market and do not make wafers. Good business model for a wafer company.

    Now they are running out of cash($40Mil left in cash and cash equivalnet and do not have the capital to grow. They are running at cash flow negative of tens of millions a quarter. They are 2 or 3 company defaults on AR away from bankruptcy.

    Oh and to top it off, they are the only company to ship lower in Q3 than Q2 of 2014. Their shipments in Q3 for modules was flat to Q3 in 2013 and their wafer shipments was down 50% from the year ago quarter. That is telling you the business is in decline and companies basically do not buy from companies that are approaching insolvency like SOL appears to be doing.

  • Reply to

    JASO trades at 1.65 (pre split price) WHY?

    by chtptomoon Dec 16, 2014 8:12 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 21, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    better yet, they did a reverse stock split to get the price back over $1 then they diluted the shares with a secondary

  • Reply to

    600 MW of projects to be completed this year

    by chrisceeaustin Dec 17, 2014 3:17 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 21, 2014 7:17 AM Flag

    It is all Chinese funded with Chinese monies and making money from Chinese. You better believe the Chinese management and Chinese government will find a way not to allow shareholder value to be transfered outside of China from the spending of Chinese dollars. They sold near half the poer company to Chinese investors on the cheap already

  • Reply to

    A billionaire moves in and it is up only $0.14?

    by bombloze Dec 16, 2014 4:24 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 21, 2014 7:08 AM Flag

    I could have sworn you called Peng a multi Billionaire and the richest man in China before. So he does not count?

  • Reply to

    20-25% lower net profit

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 18, 2014 12:23 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 18, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    you know I only gave them 25% share in the estimates below your 28%. That and it is 1 of 3 high margin markets where most of their profits are/were derived from.

  • Reply to

    20-25% lower net profit

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 18, 2014 12:23 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 18, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    right, and they were using Taiwan cells to avoid the 2012 tariff. Now they have to pay the 2012 tariff. That will get revisited soon and when it does, you can expect the revision to be more in line with what was just announced.

  • Reply to

    20-25% lower net profit

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 18, 2014 12:23 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 18, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    no I don't, run your own numbers. I told you a gross change per watt which is derived off a tarrif increase and an ASP rise.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 18, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    That is what I expect for the Tariff impact to be on Trina's net. One should expect a $0.04 hit against current gross per watt or $40-$50M anually lower net profits because of the tariff impacts. They can still do business and make money, just not nearly as much. That is if they can keep the near 1GW shipment targets. If they can not, the impact is worse as they shift the modules to what will be highly competative low price regions,

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 18, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    Yah think? Trina will need to come up with $25M-$30M quarterly to make payments on importation. The costs rise vs tarif paid likely has a cost difference of $0.04-$0.05 cents. On 1GW (25% shipments to US) that is $40-$50M anually in lost income. They are likely to net $22M anually from the 1GW shipped or $0.20 a share in profit instead of $0.70 a share in profit.

  • Reply to

    2 years ahead of peers

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 11, 2014 1:34 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 12, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    They were connecting 600MW this year on top of last years. They are per the Seeking Alpha transcript for Q3 targeting 830MW attached by year end 2014 and has 1.8GW in the pipeline.
    "Haiyun Cao - CFO

    Okay. On top of 830 megawatts, we targeted which by the end of this year, we have 1.8 gigawatts project pipelines, including 1.1 gigawatts utility scale projects, and 700 megawatts distributed generation."

    If you look at their comments of payments from earlier con call that may be 1 to 2 quarters behind, the revenue and profit recognized in Q3 would reflect roughly power generation from Q1. Q2 Power generation should have 50% more power due to seasonality and capacity add that should be reflected in Q4 if 6 month delayed. The Q4 might reflect power generation from Q2 or roughly $16.1M in revenues and roughly $6.5M net.

    If you look at projects as an ongoing 6 month slip in revenue generation, then revenue should be around $160M next year with Net not gross after 3rd party payments of nearly $32M. I might speculate that at some point the revenue recognition would be pulled down into a 1 Quarter delay and not a 2 quarter delay. When that happens, 1 quarter will have a 25 cent spike in earnings.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 11, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    Jinko is going to have 800MW at the end of this year, most will have half that at the end of next year. Jinko will get $25M per 100Mw of installed in revenues and $10M in net profits. That is $80M in profits from projects just based on the year end capacity and not adding anything new.

  • Reply to

    GCL Chairman says China to hit its 14 GW 2014 goal.

    by jwm1031 Dec 11, 2014 10:36 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Dec 11, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    not much different than what Jinko stated of atleast 13GW in the Q3 con call.

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