me thinks that is bad idea. No SUNE investor has any money left unless they were short investors.
You should stop making mistakes N0mistakes.
Here was the question
Carter Driscoll - FBR
And what do you think that magical all-in number is for utility scale and at 10% ITC to be viable
and here was the answer
Michael Potter - SVP and CFO
Somewhere around $1 a Watt, I mean plus or minus a few percent over above or below that. It kind of depends on the state and what incentives are there.
They will have serious issues getting the cost of panels imported to the US for Under $0.40/watt to reach that $1 +/-. FSLR is there already and just need the BOS. CSIQ needs a drop of 25% in the cost of the module in the same time period.
Then down to $15 like I said. It is the futures, 2017 is around the corner and CSIQ has no plans other than trying to add a few hundred MQ of wafers and cell capacity.
If the ITC expires, CSIQ indicated that projects will be about $1 +/-. to be viable. The problem is this is in just over 1 year and they are currently at $2/watt + in the US. They gave no indications as to how they can cut in half the costs of installs within a year +. without being able to do that, their project business in the US vanishes.
I find it interesting that a company gives an updated guidance and lowballs both revenue and shipments for revenues. The revenue was 4% higher than guidance and shipments for revenues exceeded high end while they missed shipments to their own projects from the same pre-announcements.
how was that Recurrent acquisition? They stated a sale of 1/10th of the portfolio is a negative drain on margins. That business acquired is so marginal that they noted in the press release their first sale is expected to be profitable. They tell you it is a NEGATIVE hit on margins and the expect it to be profitable which means almost ZERO profits from their wordsmithing. They bough 1GW of that crud
what is their business model? Selling modules at some industry worst 12-14% margins?
No wait selling 1GW of US projects at 10% margins or less?
No wait, holding trash projects for a Yieldco that they hope to get 30% margins on and sucker unkowing investors?
No wait they can not do that since Sunpower and FSLR and SUNE have fleeced investors and shown their hands at the real scam that Yieldcs are
No Wait build and sell projects in China for a Yieldco?
No Wait no FIT payments lets build and hold.
my guess is they are trying to drum up stock price for a secondary and the cash they need to grow projects
They increase guidance by $200M but then give you a $21M writedown being suggested with the LDK settlement. Wipes out most all the net profit once you realize they have an added 200MW of shipments built into Opex at an average of $0.06/watt.
Tell me based on fundamentals why you think it was manipulated down? Because what I see is a company formed for $2Billion including $500M in debt that has leass than 400MW of assets that generates roughly $1.5Billion in revenue. Not even close for cash generation to pay dividends and return the equity to the investors as well as paying operational expenses and interest payments.
That my friend was a $5+ per watt con WS pushed on unsuspecting shareholders. Ask yourself this, in the IPO they discuss MW capacity and dividends and ratings of the PPA but they never suggest actual PPA's signed prices or even a blended cost.
Why? Because in my opinion any analyst would be able to rip into the numbers and determine the price and model in junk
Means they are most likely behind on getting enough quality projects to do a Yieldco in a reasonable time period(by summer).
try over 3.5 times that many shares outstanding
From the 10Q filed with the SEC
"As of September 25, 2015, the registrant had outstanding 20,002,679 Class A shares representing limited partner interests and 51,000,000 Class B shares representing limited partner interests."