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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 4, 2015 5:01 PM Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    CSIQ with P/E of 5--------------

    by cbt_58 Jul 2, 2015 1:11 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 4, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    keep telling yourself that earnings is down due to retained projects.

  • Reply to

    CSIQ with P/E of 5--------------

    by cbt_58 Jul 2, 2015 1:11 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 3, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    Gotta love a trailing PE of 5

    Gotta love a forward PE of 10 even better.

    you know what that means, earnings is down down down year over year

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 2, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    These stocks are a scam, in 1 year they have gone from 25Million class A shares and 75million class B and B1 shares to 75Million class A shares.

    They darn well better have trippled their CAFD with that kind of dilution.

    watch out for active aggressive growth through purchases, they tend to hide the real underlying problems.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 1, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    CSIQ getting a good old fashioned beat down again. It was over $40 until they presented their Yieldco preliminary. Since then down over 25% and likely to head to down 50%.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 1, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    So was that 600MW of Austin Powers recent RFP that just closed for under $0.04 part of that 4GW potential pipeline? My guess is yes as the RFP had received 8GW of quotes and the winner quoted 1.25GW at what is a record under $40/kwhr.

    That is right, when companies talk long term pipelines, these are projects others are pursuing to. Many will never manifest to reality for most companies and they as others will be lucky to close 25% of that long term pipeline.

    Just look to Japan they are already out what ~150MW near term pipeline because of policy issues. That was near term like the 1GW near term Recurrent says it has. Even that 1GW may not be true in the end

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 1, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    and waiting and waiting, the IPO should be in 2015. They are not IPOing with only US assets. There is no cash flow in them to support dividends. They need 50-100MW from Japan and 150MW from the UK to make it work along with the rediculously low cash flow Recurrent projects like Autin Energy at below $0.05/KWhr.

  • Reply to

    Insiders Are buying!

    by rr.rr9989 Jun 25, 2015 5:19 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jul 1, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Check it out folks, company is selling the stock for CAFD. That is right it was IPO'd and the company got you to buy assets at well above market aand cash flow generations. Gotta love wallstreet.

  • Reply to

    overvalued based on cash flow

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 24, 2015 5:24 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 28, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    Kudos, due dilligence. Yes parts of AZ is 6.5 on average. The problem with that though is the average is in the scorching summer heat that serioulsy degrades power output from panel ratings. If you look at Wikepeida numbers for Arizona in 2012, they generated roughly 0.8KWhr per watt installed. Granted some of the installed was added during the year so actual output may be higher and in 2013 the ouput reflected is 1.3KWhr per watt installed. So the 1.5 KWhr I mentioned as a general rule of thumb is pretty much in tact unless you have a plant that suggests power up to 1.9KWhr/watt.

  • Reply to

    overvalued based on cash flow

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 24, 2015 5:24 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 25, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    I do not care how much quality the company is. If the entity they spun off as public is unable to generate the cashflow to return to investors there money, they are under no obligation to make up the difference. They sold investors a company that with the seed MW of projects that does not generate the cash flow to return the initial investments to the investors via dividends. Forget about expecting the actual 4% returns over the same span

  • Reply to

    overvalued based on cash flow

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 24, 2015 5:24 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 25, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    You need to get educated on solar power production and insolation. Most parts of the US has 4-5 hours of insolation per day on average 50% more in the summer 50% less in the winter. That means most PV 1 watt DC rafted power output in AC after loss for inverters degredation temperature cable loss etc impacts etc produces around AC to be appx 80% for AC or 0.8 watts /hour of insolation. 4 hours is 3.2 watts per day. 365 days in a year or 1.1KWhr AC per year at 4 hours or 1.46KWhrs AC per year at 5 hours of insolation per year. That is 30 * 1.4 = 42KWhrs for the sunny side of the US over 30 years..

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 24, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    75Million shares at $21 is over $1.5B valuation
    DEBT at IPO $400M
    Total value$1.9B

    Capacity 360MW after removal of tax equity partners
    30 years power gen 14.5Billion KWhrs

    FSLR projects sell to Power companies at $0.05-$0.08
    SPWR projects sell to retailers at $0.10+

    Lifetime revenue generation @ $0.10/KWhr = $1.45Billion
    Opex at $10M per year = $300M
    Interest on $400M = $200M
    expenses = $500
    CASH generation after expenses = $1B

    But the IPO is valued at $2B?
    seems like they scammed the investors of 8.3

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 20, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    pygmy ponies are to short for you?

  • Reply to

    8.3 started wrong foot out...

    by unclespeaking Jun 19, 2015 11:25 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 7:00 PM Flag

    closed lower

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    This company will be one of the later Yieldco's. There will be several already testing the waters and re-raing capital by the time this goes public. There very well could be a tired market when this goes public with what is viewed in my opinion as very low quality and very low profit projects from the U.S.

  • Reply to

    4% dividend; any chance for growth?

    by eizoot Jun 19, 2015 4:17 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    I would take the SCTY Bond That is pure interest plus your equity investment back, The Yieldco's dividend is including your equity interests being returned, big difference. Shareholder equity is negative in the Yieldco model. That stock price will plunge unless they raise more capital to buy more projects. To me it is like a ponsie scheme where the first in gets his money and the last in is left holding the bag as there is not enough money to go around

  • Reply to

    Get in on CAFD (FSLR's 8.3)

    by carsnmoney00 Jun 19, 2015 11:24 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    garbage stock using non standard accounting to reflect some inane shareholder value. Bottom line like TERP, this thing is going to the well many many times to get cash to buy more projects. Hard to fathom an IPO at $1.6Billion and $500M in debt for 432MW of projects owned by CAFD and partners of FSLR and SPWR. The have conned you guys out of paying $5/watt in valuation and debt when that capacityproabably will not even generate that kind of cash flow.over 30 to 35 years. They sucker you into believing that you are getting a dividend when in reality they are giving you depreciated assets. That depreciated asset is removed from the book value.

    The great con is a Yieldco is a good investment. It is only good for the Sponsors and not the johny come lately retirees WS is coning.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    and what have they gotten from spending an average of $40M per year on RnD over the past 6 years? Nothing that I see that is worth $240M....

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 19, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    um yeah about those estimates and earnings on yahoo, what are they derived from? I aks because in Q1 yahoo has listed a profit of $0.26 actual but if you read the ER they had

    Net loss (83,660)

    Loss per share:
    Class A common stock - Basic and diluted $ (0.57)

    Yahoo analysts are giving you pipe dreams of nonGAAP earnings.

    Oh yes and in 2014 yer end they had a net loss of $75M on revenues $125M not the $0.30 year ago earngings claimed by yahoo.

  • These yieldcos do not generate cash for expansion. The only way they can aquire more power is to buy the projects. The initial IPO gave most of the cash to the Sponsor. They generate no cash flow for aquisitions as they pay 80-90% of the cash flow after expenses as dividends. This is why they acquired 800Million in debt at IPO and another $150M in debt earlier this year and another $500M yet again. To grow they need money and what they own does not generate the money needed. If it did, then the Sponsors would not have needed to spin off the assets.

    The sponsors at the aid of WS crooks are creating a high profit sales channel that smuck investors are buying into because of the "Dividend" which is nothing more than primarily asset depreciation. They are also creating high consulting fees for the daily operations that are returning to the sponsors tens of millions anually out of
    any profits.

    You can expect TERP to go to the well over and over as they MUST acquire more projects and at inflated prices to hide the weekness in their earnings.

  • Reply to

    should Riese with 8Point3 IPO too

    by unclespeaking Jun 12, 2015 10:05 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jun 15, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    I own several utility companies that make GAAP profit and pay dividends and I invest in certain REITS that have value in physical property and not just a product that ages over time. 8Point3 owns none of their land in the projects they are selling. Their margins are however better than the dog REIT of CSIQ with TERP assets.