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LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Message Board

twoheadedsnake1234 46 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Oct 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Nice day for JKS

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Mar 2, 2015 6:11 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 11 hours ago Flag

    Earnings is roughly $130M Net before adjustments for forex etc at todays diluted share count around $3.60+/- and around $1.8B in revenue.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 by twoheadedsnake1234 Mar 2, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Earnings was withing expectations. The only negative was an explainable downside to non revenue projects for 2014. These projects will be picked up in first half of 2015. Including the shortfall in 2014, they are planning on 1GW of projects in 2015. The suggestion of an IPO in the US for the power business is interesting as one would have thought they may run the IPO through China. That should bode well for stock support this coming year. The pipeline they have should give room for drop downs to add to the IPO.

    Guidance was fairly strong for a stable ASP this year. Only higher region ASP's are looking to be lower and that is being blamed on an expected suppressed currency exchange. The cost cutting in production should lead to margins maintained if not slightly higher than in Q3/Q4.

    All told they shipped some 3.2GW to their own projects and customers. The guidance for 2015 is looking for a modest 2.7GW to 3GW for shipments to customers and an additional 600-800MW to internal projects. That gives targets between 3.2GW to 4GW total with a range of 3.6 to 3.8GW as very probable barring global disasters. That suggests 400-600MW as probable or 15-20% growth as quite likely. The only downside is that shipments to customers is flat to up 10% as they are choosing to take much of China as their own. This will be recouped and then some later in the IPO.

    In General a nice story with reduced debt finance costs coming down the road in the next couple of quarters. A stronger more bullish story would have had 1GW of new projects for 1.8GW and shipments in the 3.2 to 3.4GW. The current guidance however would suggest there is the ability to revise upwards through the year. That is always better than pulling a Yingli and revising down from an overly bullish forcast like 2014.

  • Reply to

    Heading to 9?

    by twoheadedsnake1234 Apr 7, 2014 6:16 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 23, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    5 thumbs down for this accurate post, quite bearish but quite accurate....

  • Reply to

    CSIQ at 25 targets are 50

    by jazyje Apr 11, 2014 9:13 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 23, 2015 8:48 AM Flag

    wow what a call....

  • Reply to

    Announcement Soon: SPI Solar Impulse Group

    by bombloze Feb 5, 2015 9:19 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 10, 2015 7:40 AM Flag

    Pengs little lap dog going from Peng failed company to Peng failed company pushing bull and his agenda for a paycheck. This company is now a Chinese owned and operated entity with all the #$%$ets swept into China. There is no US in this company anymore. Don't think you will see any profits from it either as now like LDK, #$%$ the #$%$ets are in China away from US investors access.

  • Reply to

    Canadian Solar Shatters The Bear Case

    by coreysdouchenozzle Feb 6, 2015 9:30 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 8, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    his comments of $6 in earnings was rebutted, then he admitted it is more likely $4.50. Changing values so quickly indicates a comment for the dramatic and thus mistrust for accuracies of his perceptions.

  • Reply to

    rediculous low!

    by sachsische Feb 2, 2015 12:02 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 6, 2015 7:11 AM Flag

    740Million new shares issues to buy the remaining shares of a dog company like QCells for $830M

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 5, 2015 8:11 AM Flag

    PE of 8 = $12 PE of 6 = $9

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 5, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    where is your math? $2.3B at 10% is $230M. Opex at $56M. Interest at $120M ($1600M 2 years @ 5%) net before tax $54M. Tax at 20% is $43M net. This will add upwards of $1 in EPS over 2 years with 75% of that in 2016 not 2015. 2015 might be lucky to add $0.20 to the EPS.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 4, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    You really need to know what the long term Purchase Price Agreements are in order to determine a value. CSIQ stated the 7 projects had PPA agreements.The US does not have FITS. Therefore each project needs to get a PPA agreement lined up to assess a long term cash flow analysis. Other areas that have FITS like China Europe and Japan make it easier to estimate potential value

  • Reply to

    Recurrent Impact on 2015--My Guess

    by jwm1031 Feb 4, 2015 9:11 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 4, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    It sounded as if they need to build and own a lot of projects before they can Yieldco. From the sounds of it, they do not have enough built to go Yieldco as of now. They might by the end of the year have enough globally between Japan and the US if not in 2016. In the meantime, they take the cash from power generation

  • Reply to

    Recurrent Impact on 2015--My Guess

    by jwm1031 Feb 4, 2015 9:11 AM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 4, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    20% on $2.3B = $460M. Gross Margins 12.5% = $57M. Opex $21M. Interest on Debt $2M. Tax $3.8M, net $15.2M. 3.3% Net margins. 60M shares fully diluted, diluted $0.25 positive impact on EPS

    using stated model of 5.75% unlevered net = $26.45M = $0.44 EPS on 60 million fully diluted shares

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 4, 2015 7:01 AM Flag

    I do not know enough about the market segment they are in and the costs associated to make comments on investing. What I will stated from their Yahoo profile is that they are a technical analysis company that analyzes well data. If well development and discovery is being put on hold due to low oil prices, I do not see how this can be a plus for them. That might explain their miss and lower guidance with the plunge. Their dividend is not large enough to suggest to me to buy as a retirement type of stock.

  • Reply to

    JKS powering up into earnings.

    by davidwitte2 Jan 27, 2015 3:35 PM
    twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 2, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    It is all about guidance. If they can suggest 3100MW of module shipments power revenues at $160M+ margins at 21% and what is suggested $130M net that would be very good.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 1, 2015 8:52 PM Flag

    Again, do not place Canadian Current ASP on other business prospects. The China ASP is near half the $2.75M/MW. There is only 1.4G late stage contracts. There is 3G of business they are chasing and not under any sort of contract. Most of this is/will be sub $2 business.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 1, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    Correct, so when CSIQ talks about Japan projects being similar to Canadian projects, are they talking future Canadian projects at the $2.54-$2.75 or are they talking about the legacy projects that were $5 to $6/Watt? I bet that would be the longer term project range int he $2.54-$2.75 range. People may be over estimating the values of all their projects thinking that Japan is going to be $4 or $5 a watt(I have read some models on various boards calling for this.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Feb 1, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    $5M-$5.5M/MW is older projects that are basically gone. The press release indicated 275MW in Canada for an estimated over $900MCanadian or just over $700M USD. That is an average of $2.78M per MW. That is only slightly higher than in the Q2 transcript on seeking Alpha when they stated

    "Our backlog of late-stage solar project and EPC service contracts in Canada now totals around 535 megawatt, this represent an estimated revenue opportunity of over C$1.8 billion once the projects are built and connected to the grid."

    So if you use $5-$5.50 you are not using CSIQ guidance.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jan 30, 2015 5:41 PM Flag

    allreadydidretireearly. :)

    Yes I own the main 4 profitable solars and I own oil companies. I also own power companies and chemical companies and have a broad diversified portfolio including healthcare, tech , CPG and some Mutual Funds.

    I see CSIQ sideways trading for the next year. I see better appreciation potential for Trina JKS and Jaso. I am not big on Yieldco's and prefer that they arrange their own buyers. This takes out Wall Street as a middle man transaction broker and their fees out of the equation.

    Bottom fishing is always a dream, I bought a bunch of Trina in the low $7 range recently. If Jinko dives below 16 I will pick up a some of them. I already have the CSIQ and Jaso I want.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jan 30, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    I monitor CSIQ and understand their business model. I feel good about my numbers estimates as I trust myself and not others. I can extrapolate estimates pretty darn good imho compared to most that post. For evidential support

    Back on October 24 2013 search on “CSIQ a peak”, I suggested for 2014 that Revenues would be between 2.75B and 3.25B. A mean of $3B. I suggested profits downside would be $40M and the upside would be $280M. The upside had margins of 18.5% the downside had 14.5% margins. I stated Q4 estimates for 2014 would be close to $1Billion and margins would be at 18.5%. You could expect net after taxes around $95M. Check the Q3 ER for guidance and margins on Q4, you can wait for the Q4 ER but the thoughts are pretty close. If you read the tone of the post, it is a bullish post with the bias to upside.

    The main difference in my estimate to actual was a shift downwards in project revenues and an increase in module shipments. If you look at the years guidance I gave for 2014 and the Q4 2014 guidance I gave in October 2013, you will find them pretty darn close to actuals. I will note, I do not factor in adjustments for Forex and 1 timers. Numbers in the mid $2.60 to the low $3.30 range.

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Jan 29, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    I see it closer to $3.2 to 3.5B

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