Here's a good example...When LITE went below 16.50 there was no defined support levels and I said we were in true bottom fishing mode. The bottom could have been at 16.00 or 0 or anywhere in between. I never got on the message board saying how bad things are, how it's going to 0, how the management is no good, etc. I really just look at the stock price behavior. I saw a couple of high volume days in the low 14s and posted. Even at that time I didn't say the bottom was in. I just made a note for everyone's reference that something was noteworthy. All the negative talk (or positive talk for that matter) doesn't really help. It's just trying to figure out what the stock price is going to do next. Isn't that what we really care about anyway?
Blake, notice in my bottom fishing excursion that I did pick up the increased volume a few weeks ago as LITE was around $14.
Hey there Blake. The bottom in LITE is anyone's guess. It could have happened already just below $14, or it could be at $0, or anywhere in between. We're in uncharted territory. One thing to note is the higher volume this week. It gets over 100K shares fairly early in the day. It probably doesn't mean too much, but it is a difference to be noted.
Blake, once it broke through 16.50 your prediction has a much higher likelihood than before. If it would have gyrated in the high 16s and then somehow broke higher, we would have had a decent double bottom in place. Now, it's anyone's guess as to how low it goes.
Blake, that's what my plan is...let the chart develop and act accordingly. I will likely have to buy back higher, but it needs to establish some kind of chart pattern now. And most importantly show some relative strength to the market.
It's easy to press the sell button, so it was all gone early. Once it broke through 16.50, it has no support whatsoever. I'll still be watching it like a hawk though and trying to time a bottom. It won't be easy though. It really will have to establish some relative strength. Most likely it gets a bounce at some point, then it will want to go back and test whatever low it puts it. Then it will have to take out the high on the next move up.
Blake, I really do follow my charts, so it's gone. Now, it has to show some serious relative strength before a bottom can be defined. It may get a dead cat bounce, but that won't be enough.
That looks like the most likely scenario. I'm sure it will get it's big down move on low volume early like it always does. But maybe it will surprise us all and go up. Not likely, but when just about everyone is a fully committed bear, then it goes up.
I've been watching that 16.50 level like a hawk. I'm in just like I said I was going to be and will sell half if it goes below 16.50. Then I'll decide what to do with the other half.
Here's a flat out answer. About a month before the company split it was acting weak, so I sold. No, I didn't sell or short at the top like you at $16. Now, I'm trying to get a feel for how these two companies trade on their own. LITE has a tremendous amount of volatility. When it went below $17 yesterday, that put in a lower low on the P&F chart - not a good thing if you think it's going up. If it gets to $16.50, that breaks longer term support - even if that's only a little over a month of history. So, I'm trying to time a bottom. Once that $17 level got broken yesterday, a new chart pattern is going to have to establish itself.
Blake, you are quite entertaining. So, you have my prediction to the penny. It's based on a P&F chart - a very simple charting method. You say LITE is going to $10 then to $0. Maybe it is. Bad margins, weak guidance quarter after quarter, competition from China, weak management, etc. I'll let the chart guide me in how I position myself. Right now, it's all about staying above $16.50.
Good deal. You have my prediction to the penny about what happens. If it goes below 16.50 there's lots of room to the downside. But if it holds (and not just tomorrow, but it's going to have to prove itself over some days), then the bottom is in and you'll be wrong about $10. Since I'm market neutral, I don't have an agenda either way.
So, Blake that's my prediction. If it holds 16.51 then it goes up. Once it goes below 16.50 it goes down even more - no bottom in sight.
Let's see your prediction right now.
Blake, I'm trying to time a bottom. Why do you think I'm long? I've been trading JDSU since 1999. I'd be long gone if I didn't know how to trade both ways.
Run a point & figure chart on LITE. If it can hold 16.51, that may be a bottom. If it hits 16.50 or below then it breaks down and who knows how low it goes after that.
It really doesn't get any more complicated than that. I think the industry is a tough one, their management is questionable at best, etc. But you don't find a bottom when you're hearing good things. The P&F chart will provide the answer.
I'm very happy to hear you are done here. You've been a great contrarian indicator and we'll all miss you.
Blake, when you make a trade you can either buy or sell. If you buy lower and sell higher, then you make a profit. Another strategy is to sell and then buy back cheaper. Hey, you have the same number of shares and some extra $. That's what a trading vehicle is.
Blake, you just don't listen to me. I don't buy this stock and hold it with the hope it's going higher. I use it as a trading vehicle. And, yes I use you as a contrarian indicator and it works pretty well.