FNSR's earnings are next Thursday. I wouldn't even know how JDSU's stock price will react at this point. That's how tough trading JDSU has become since late October.
Going below $12 broke support making it really tough to bottom fish. But, not too long ago JDSU went above $16 breaking upside resistance. It could be a head fake on both sides of the range. Note that CIEN and FNSR have also been getting hammered since late October. I'm a lot less concerned that it's company-specific based on the recent price action of FNSR and CIEN.
Anyone want to venture a guess on what the bottom will be on this latest pullback? I really thought $12 was going to hold. My guess is there's a 30% chance that this is the bottom and it's a head fake below $12. That leaves a 70% chance that there's further downside. Breaking $12 means the next support doesn't show up until $10. So, that's why I say bottom fishing is so tough with JDSU right now.
I'm just looking at a simple P & F chart as I make my guesses about future price action. Anyone else want to comment based on the method of analysis they use?
From a P & F charting standpoint once that $12 level got taken out today it just becomes pure luck if you can catch the bottom. Holding $12 would have made bottom fishing a lot easier.
Thanks Hedge. I look at it this way...We were at $16 one week before earnings. The sell off started one week BEFORE the earnings were released. Now, we're down about 20%. Is that enough of a haircut to make up for guidance not matching analyst expectations? I guess we'll see.
Hedge, what odds do you place on 12.50 holding? I know guidance wasn't what the analysts expected, but the magnitude of this sell off seems pretty ridiculous.
Next quarter's guidance was really telling. FNSR, CIEN, and others have run over the past year, while JDSU has been stuck in a trading range. Up until recently one would think the problems are industry specific. The guidance for next quarter raises the possibility that maybe it's company specific. I really thought they were going to give strong guidance for next quarter based on how the stock was trading about a week before the earnings report.
You make a really good point. That's why it's important to see how JDSU trades in relation to FNSR, CIEN, etc.
A week ago JDSU breaks through long term resistance at $16. Ever since then, it's been a relentless downward move. Decent earnings and revenue this quarter, but weak forward guidance takes the stock down even more after hours. I was surprised the guidance was weak given last week's move above $16. If it would have stopped short of $16, it would have been more plausible.
Now it's just a matter of seeing where the bottom gets established. It will also be important to see how FNSR, CIEN, and others trade off JDSU's weak guidance.
Once again, run a P & F chart and see what going through the $16 level means. It makes these pullback days much less stressful. The same for earnings next week. The chart tells the story.