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Rubicon Technology, Inc. (RBCN) Message Board

twr508 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 9, 2014 10:35 PM Member since: Sep 21, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Cree's Strat Plan, Mix Shift And Margins

    by jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 1:47 PM
    twr508 twr508 Jul 9, 2014 10:35 PM Flag

    So you are talking about GAAP PE all along. Just to be clear. I don't think any analyst uses GAAP PE. If that's what you believe using GAAP numbers for valuation, so be it. I really don't care that you are short or not. The non GAAP PE for F14 is about 30 or close to it, and F15 non GAAP PE is about 25 per analysts forecast. So PEG is very close to 1 since the op income growth is close to 27% which is the number you gave and is a non GAAP number BTW. Don't mix up the two.

  • Reply to

    Cree's Strat Plan, Mix Shift And Margins

    by jpmarketer Jul 8, 2014 1:47 PM
    twr508 twr508 Jul 9, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    The ttm earnings (F14) ended last month is ~ $1.64 plus or minus a few cents depending on the actual June earnings. The ttm PE is therefore ~30, not 49.

  • LEDINSIDE, June.30, 2014 - 16:51 — LeahRae

    Sapphire substrate related manufacturers are unable to meet increasing demands as the LED lighting industry enters peak season and Apple prepares to launch the new iPhone 6. Prices for upstream ingot and downstream substrate increased in 3Q14, with ingot prices up 5-10 percent. Rise in price has driven up business performance for sapphire substrate related manufacturers.

    Rising demands from the LED lighting industry and Apple has led to an undersupply in the sapphire substrate market, driving up cost and profit margins. Sapphire ingot prices have increased to US $4 for 2 inch and US $16 for 4 inch. Prices for 4 inch sapphire ingot has seen a gradual increase each quarter, starting at US $13 in 4Q13 to US $16 in 2Q14, and could increase further to US $16.8-17.65 by 3Q14. Ingot prices in total have increased 30 percent since 4Q13. Price for downstream substrate has likewise increased.

    Among sapphire related manufacturers benefiting from increasing ingot and substrate prices, ProCrystal Technology’s revenue has grown over 90 percent over the past five months. Revenue for June is hoped to break RMB 100 million (US $16.1 million), according to legal persons. In addition, 2Q14 will see an increase of 15 percent and YoY revenue is anticipated to show exponential growth. In addition to increase in PSS substrate shipments, ProCrystal Technology has the chance to turn loss into profit during the second half of 2014.

    PSS market supply shortage exceeded 30 percent, driving up PSS industry performance. According to legal persons, June revenue for sapphire manufacturers Ridgetech and Aceplux Optoelectronic have the chance to see substantial growth, with Ridgetech’s July revenue anticipated to reach a new record high.

  • Reply to

    Management changes

    by blackoutbuzz Jun 25, 2014 9:02 PM
    twr508 twr508 Jun 27, 2014 10:22 PM Flag

    A simple example everyone can understand. IF Cree had $0 op income in 2012, it's 2013/2012 op increase percentage would be infinitive.

  • Reply to

    Management changes

    by blackoutbuzz Jun 25, 2014 9:02 PM
    twr508 twr508 Jun 27, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    F14 VS F13: Rev =$1.651B/$1.387B, up 19.1%. Op inc = $2301m/$182m, up 27.0%. Even if FQ4 misses or exceeds the estimates won't change those numbers much. Operating margin improving and operating earnings growing above 20% yoy. If you are getting into q2q, you are counting individual trees as opposed to looking at the forest, i.e. the big picture. Which means you choose to trade than invest.

  • Reply to

    Shareholder meeting today

    by twr508 Jun 25, 2014 2:45 PM
    twr508 twr508 Jun 25, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    Wonder if more shorts may cover before close. Those attended might have heard or seen something that gave today's rally. Overnight some news might break or some upgrades. You never know, just a thought.

  • must have been very good.

  • Reply to

    CREE vs VOLT

    by aaronedward2003 Jun 23, 2014 10:28 AM
    twr508 twr508 Jun 23, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    Trust you? Cree does not sell them for $5. Utilities provide the $5 rebate.

  • Reply to

    Cree's Problem as I See It

    by jpmarketer May 29, 2014 10:35 PM
    twr508 twr508 Jun 23, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    The Energy Star testing is the standard. The requirement is that the lamp maintains minimum of 91.6% of the initial luminance after 6000 hours. So it is NOT POSSIBLE for CREE's luminaires that have the Energy Star qualification to loose 30% of the luminance after just 3000 hours.

  • Reply to

    cree sucks

    by canyon157ryder Jun 20, 2014 12:48 PM
    twr508 twr508 Jun 21, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    The company submits LM-80 which is a 6000 hours testing of the LED component used in the luminaire, and with that it can get a 3000 hours actual luminaire (bulb) testing to qualify for Energy Star. Based on what you are saying, CRRE's bulbs already degraded to L70 life after only 3000 hours, or ~10% of the warranty time. If so, the third-party lab certified by EPA or DOE must have seen the degradation you claim to exists since they test the bulbs for at least 3000 hours, and need to continue to test after the ES certification according to the EPA rules.

  • Reply to

    Cree's Problem as I See It

    by jpmarketer May 29, 2014 10:35 PM
    twr508 twr508 Jun 21, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    From Energy Star Website under third-party certification:
    To ensure consumer confidence in the ENERGY STAR label and to protect the investment of ENERGY
    STAR manufacturing partners, EPA requires all ENERGY STAR products to be third-party certified. This requirement includes product testing in an EPA-recognized laboratory that meets international standards for quality and competency, review of the product by an EPA-recognized certification body to determine ENERGY STAR eligibility, and ongoing testing to ensure that products continue to deliver superior energy efficiency and performance. The specific roles of these third-party organizations are described in the ENERGY STAR Process Flow Diagram PDF (97KB).

    In addition to the specific conditions and criteria for these organizations, EPA also publishes directives to clarify and elaborate on the responsibilities of EPA-recognized accreditation bodies (ABs), certification bodies (CBs), and laboratories.

    EPA establishes partnership with brand owners of products (manufacturing partners). These ENERGY STAR partners must have products tested in EPA-recognized laboratories and certified by an EPA-recognized CB prior to labeling. All certified products will also be subject to ongoing verification testing and challenge testing as described in the Conditions and Criteria for Recognition of Certification Bodies PDF (60KB), as well as directives 2011-04 PDF (80KB) and 2011-06 PDF (52KB). As part of EPA's activities to maintain the integrity of ENERGY STAR, products that fail to meet ENERGY STAR requirements will be subject to EPA's disqualification procedures PDF (59KB).

    Manufacturers who label products as ENERGY STAR without obtaining third-party certification put the integrity of the program at risk and undermine the investment of those who honor their commitment. Companies found to be labeling products without obtaining the necessary certification will be required to remove the label from these products.

  • Reply to

    Samsung and LG Considering Sapphire

    by twr508 May 23, 2014 9:37 AM
    twr508 twr508 May 23, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    Copy of transcript from Seeking Alpha:
    "...Thus far, most of the demand for these applications had come from one manufacturer. However, we believe we will begin to see greater adoption of sapphire in mobile devices. We participate in this market, primarily by selling a significant amount of smaller diameter core to our polishing partners. We are also well positioned to sell larger diameter bulk crystal in a variety of shades and dimension into the market as additional applications develop.

    In addition, we have two projects in R&D to develop solutions for these applications that would eliminate the need to fabricate pieces from bulk crystal, which if successful, would provide a significant cost advantage, since most of the cost of these pieces is not in the crystal but in the fabrication of crystal into the right form.

    We have patents pending on both technologies and we are now producing samples from one of these technologies, which we are testing with a major consumer electronics manufacturer. We also have requests for sample from several other leading consumer electronics manufacturers. We will provide more information on the progress of this product as we move forward..."

  • Reply to

    Samsung and LG Considering Sapphire

    by twr508 May 23, 2014 9:37 AM
    twr508 twr508 May 23, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Rubicon has sent out rectangular samples to major cellphone manufacturers for evaluation according to its latest CC.

  • According to sources talking to ETNews, both LG and Samsung have reached out to Sapphire glass manufacturers to get some samples of their work

  • Reply to

    One trick pony

    by blackoutbuzz May 15, 2014 10:39 AM
    twr508 twr508 May 16, 2014 8:01 AM Flag

    Japanese and Korean Manufacturers Ditch OLED TV Over High Costs

    Title from today's Ledinside news.

  • Reply to

    rbcn

    by bot_feeder May 2, 2014 9:57 AM
    twr508 twr508 May 7, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    Bought some this morning.

  • Reply to

    rbcn

    by bot_feeder May 2, 2014 9:57 AM
    twr508 twr508 May 4, 2014 1:37 AM Flag

    After listening to the CC, this should actually be time to buy and I did Friday.

RBCN
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