re the statement about needed transportation. I don't think anyone loads directly onto a train. There's 2 main issues, from what I have read.
How far do they have to drive their trucks to get to the train, and where do those roads run? Very heavy trucks, and bridges, and local ordinances, can be problems.
Then there is the infrastructure at the train yard to load the railcars.
It's funny (to me) how there can be issues in a business that never show up on a Annual rept, or a discussion, that clearly limit the entry of new competition. Access to transportation is a very huge issue!
That explains the $4 pop, and reinforces what everyone but the SEC knows, insiders knew and traded on that news before it became publicly available.
My experience with Citron is that they are wrong 90% of the time.
Fuel cells are a better way to create electricity, and the efficiency is growing much faster than battery technology. Time will tell...
Here's a theory that's full of holes.
Today, inventories are down. So WTI shd be up, but it's down, probably in sympathy with the mkt.
But, every E&P company that you look at says they will greatly increase production next yr.
The investors think increased production will lead to higher rev and profits, seems reasonable.
And it would be reasonable is all the producers were increasing production.
I think the issue is that investors fear we are heading to a glut in oil, and a decline to the very low oil prices.
Here's the flip side, none of the large oil producers internationally (saudi arabia, russia, etc) want oil below 90, they all want it at 100, they have bills to pay too!
So that's my theory, investors are fearing lower oil prices could impact the fcsts for increased rev on profits.
I only trade E&P stocks, and only a short list of them, MHR is obviously on the list.
I sold my MHR at 7.80 bcse oil was so hi, bot it back yesterday, guessing that oil would stay above 96.
Mkt opens up, oil is up, MHR opens up, I get ready for a fast trade (bot at 6.84 yesterday).
So I'm watching golf, trying to to watch MHR...
If you would have just bot the old lady a car with the dough, it's no big loss, is it?
O&G all down, and I listen to a story on TV about the tax credits for med research equip not getting renewed, but that group is all up.
MHR steadily down from a nice open, now 6.72.
Nuts day for me...
I would note that the consensus est for GTLS 2014 EPS has dropped again, now it's 4.02. At a 20 multiple, it's an 80 buck stock, but I think it is fairly valued today.
And, it dropped almost exactly the 10 bucks I expected.
OK, we are at 95!! But, with oil in decline and soft mkts, I now will wait for a lower price yet, at least 92...GEOS has been stable....
GTLS is getting back to where I sold, after buying at 58. My question is why did it get to 130??
First, to the question of a warning, companies are under no requirement to warn in advance of their quarterly reports. GTLS is run by engineers, you get what you pay for.
Next, the anal est for 2014 earnings was at 4.40 90 days ago. At 130, you have a leading PE of 30. GTLS is a capital equipment company, maybe in a hot area, but still capital intensive. Plus, they have shown a propensity to miss the estimates. I thot 100 was a great number, and got out before that.
The 2014 est are now down to 4.14. IMO, at a 25 multiple, 100 is a hi end for the stock.
My re-entry for GTLS would be under 95, maybe less. I'm not in love with technology or anything, I'm in love with cheap stocks. GTLS, at 100, is not cheap.
BTW, I did get into GEOS at 69 and 70 after their last ER, it was cheap then, but is not cheap now. However, it is selling at a 15 multiple based on 2014 est EPS. If that gets to 20, or if the est go down, I'm out of that too.
At the current prices, neither GTLS or GEOS are cheap. I see GEOS as having another 10-15 bucks of upside, and GTLS having 10 bucks of downside risk.
JMO, GL, and I'll be in GTLS with you if it gets below 95.
anyone notice APA selling part of their Egypt business to an Chinese company? APA up 8%. For dumping Egypt!!
Hi Richard, I've been out of EOX for a while. I came back to see what is new here, congrats on holding EOX so long, the persistently hi price of oil has helped this group a lot!
As I mentioned a while ago, I have held a small MHR position. They reported, and will probably sell off a little today.
But, if they meet their EOY production tgts (and that is just a few months away), and they do the asset sales they talk about, and if oil stays high, MHR should double.
I say this bcse EOX's mkt cap is about 2.3x their Q4 rev, annualized (ie, 21M x 4 = 84M, mkt cap of $190M, = 2.26). MHR, using the same math, is at less than 1.5 (120M x 4 = 480m, mkt cap of 694, and maybe lower today).
EOX has a somewhat higher growth rate projected. But not by much.
Look it over, I will add at some point, maybe today, probably in the next 2-3 weeks.
I felt pretty dumb when I saw it over 7 this AM, but I console myself knowing that I don't try to get the bottom or the top, just 10-20% in the middle.
But now, it's below where I sold, and I feel better.
Plus, I rolled 1/2 of my EOX proceeds into DQ, not Dairy Queen, a China solar play, which was up 10% at one point today, not up just 5%+.
Sitting on a little ROYL, and that's it in energy for me right now. (unless you count uranium, I have some UEC).
I only trade the oil stks. Oil is so volatile, the govt is so anti oil, and people on CNBC, led by Cramer, always talk about oil being too high.
So I buy when oil is low, and take profits. Sold all EOX and all MHR. Sold TPLM a while back. The MHR got sold close to the hi, it had dropped to 2.50, I got in at 2.75, out over 4. The others I sold too soon, but made a nice profit.
As I posted previously, my LT holds are in biotech, and, amazingly, gaming (I have a VL MPEL position that is 18 months old with a cost basis of 10). I trade tech, oil, solar, etc, etc. When I trade, I am not patient when it comes time to take a profit.
As a terrible example of that, I had CLVS, a biotech, at 14, out at 20, it's over 70 now, and that all happened in the last 6 months.
GL to you too. I forgot, I have a small ROYL position still.
Morn rich- I have a system with TPLM, that says it moves in cycles. If I could only follow my system.
If you observe the TPLM chart, TPLM moves in 2-3 month moves, so I bot a load at 5.50 back on 4/15 and 4/16. Shame on me for taking my profits too soon.
But, oil is toppy. The idiots on TV, like Cramer, want to say that we are "awash" in oil, and the prices shd fall. He must be on retainer from the BO admin.
Still, oil won't go up much more without more WW unrest, which is entirely possible. There is more downside than upside, which, to me, means the oil sks have more downside than upside.
I sold my last EOX shrs today. EOX could be much higher int he future, but if oil were to drop, EOX will drop. If I still had my TPLM, I would be selling that too.
deep, could I ask a question? You est of the cost to build, does that include the cost to acquire the right of ways, and the cost of getting the permits?
The pipelines in this country are way undervalued, if you just look at the problems they are having with any new pipelines, the eco-terrorists have such control.
Getting right of ways is fought by the eco nuts, then they really gear up after that!!
So, if the construction costs are x, I would guess for any project, the land, etc costs could easily increase that by 25-50%.
FWIW, I think NOT having a MB hurts a small company's stock price, since small investors like to read what others think. For EOX, you had to know to look at VOG, and only long timers knew that!
So you did us all a favor, tks!
Now, maybe it will help the stock too? Or is that too much to ask....
I got out of MHR over 4, but then bot back in today too soon. I only bot 1/2 the shrs I sold, so being down 12 cents is no great problem.
On your TPLM, I had it too, and like you, sold before the ops update, and the big pop. What kills me is that I see TPLM moves in 3 month cycles, and when I bot, I actually put a note on my cal to hold it for 3 months, which would be at some time next week. But, I gave up, and lost a lot of potential profit.
Oil is up, no idea why the group is down so much, maybe it's the Dow being off 125? MTDR was green, TPLM and EOX both fared well. But MHR!!!
I also did a 20 min trade on ROYL, a large handful of shrs, and took 30 cents/sh, over 10%, in 20 min!! I think ROYL could be a trade tomorrow too.
My biotechs got crushed...but I sold all my NLNK in the green all day today, that has been a hottie, and may continue to be a hottie.
I'm still sitting on my "core" EOX position, and won't add unless I see a real low opportunity.
Richard, just FYI, while I have kept that position in EOX, I have made a lot of money on MHR. MHR is a "battlefield" stock, as i call them, the battle being that they fired their auditor, and as far as i know, they still don't have one. No big deal, it takes time to get a new auditor, new guys want to do an audit before they agree.
But I was holding shrs expecting a pop when the announcement was made, but got a steady rise without an announcement.