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Clean Diesel Technologies Inc. Message Board

txteapartyguy 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 18, 2015 4:12 PM Member since: Jun 13, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Hedges

    by red_sox_10_nyy_3 Dec 7, 2014 9:15 PM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Dec 8, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    " If Pickens is right and oil rebounds to $100 in 12 to 18 months.."

    I don't think Pickens, or anyone, knows when oil will recover. Consider my reasoning:

    Oil is controlled by large government, in fact, 98% of the worlds reserves are on land controlled by govts.

    Govts do not act rationally. OPEC declined to cut production 5% (ie, 1.5M bbl/day from a 30M bbl/da current target.

    For that, the price of oil has dropped about 12-13%.

    Even a grammar school child can figure out that 28.5M x 75 is better than 30M x 65.

    But they chose to keep production up.

    The bigger issue is why they did that. Most the countries that produce and export oil are socialist, or close to socialist societies. In Saudi Arabia, every citizen gets "stuff" from the govt that is unheard of elsewhere, and in Venezuela, we know how socialist things are there. And how bad things are.

    Those OPEC countries that are overspending their revenue can't stop pumping oil, they have bills to pay. And those bills are not rational, many have destabilized currencies, etc.

    So, my thots are that the OPEC crowd can't, and won't stop pumping, and Russia will be the worst offender. Iran will also pump way over their limit.

    I would like to think Pickens is right, that rational thought will return, but given the underpinnings of the problems, I have little hops for oil prices for quite a while. In fact, I expect some kind of soverign debt collapse before any oil sanity happens.

    It's a sad outlook, I hope Pickens is right, but I see no way that happens.

  • Reply to

    Hedges

    by red_sox_10_nyy_3 Dec 7, 2014 9:15 PM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Dec 8, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    The much bigger issue, imo, is what happens with those "marginal" governments? It is a social devastation issue, I think Venezuela and some of the African countries could go from civil war to total anarchy as factions fight for the bread crumbs. What happen when that plays out? Will the Islamist terrorists move in? Not so bad in Africa, where they are already, what about having them with a strong toehold in So Amer??

    Very low oil is a bad thing. What would happen here if we cut our social pgms by 25 or 50%? Anarchy. I am stunned they didn't see this coming, I personally hope they wake up, but so far, their stupidity says there's a lot more trouble to come...

    TPLM down 7%...that tells us all we need to know...ps, I don't own any O&G E&P, haven't for 3 months, sold GDP at 14, AXAS at 5, etc, etc, and so glad I did!

  • Reply to

    Boy oh boy oh boy

    by qtww_fan Dec 8, 2014 11:11 AM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Dec 8, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    oil is dropping, no one will #$%$ engines anymore, not for years at these oil prices. Take what you have and live to fight another day.

  • Reply to

    TIMBER!!!

    by milouds2 Dec 8, 2014 11:44 AM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Dec 8, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    Russia backing off from the Ukraine? Let me introduce you to a Mr Putin, he does not have a reverse gear....

    But, PLUG is stupid cheap at these levels...I am not adding, simply bcse oil is dropping, and the shorts own the table.

  • txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Dec 18, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    I hope you aren't asking when will a NYC bartender buy you a drink! I worked in NYC for 25 yrs, entertained regularly, ate in all the hi end places, drank in all the low end places, never had a drink bot for me, except at the very low end places after 2 AM...

  • Reply to

    SOLD the rest of my $1.30 FRO lottery tickets

    by railsnstocks Jan 8, 2015 4:04 PM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Jan 11, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    New to this MD, but my thots on SD:

    There are a number of O&G E&P companies that might not survive. If oil does stay at 40 for a yr, no sense in trying to outsmart the Saudis.

    But if oil recovers, I would rather have a few of the terminally ill players, like SD, like GDP, like MHR, and not put all my shekels into just one.

    I have not been thru SD's balance sheet, but I have been thru GDP's. They borrowed heavily to lease some really good acreage. At 40, it is not good acreage, at 70 it's a winner.

    Again, my only point is that if you insist on speculating now, speculate of a few, not just one.

    GL...

  • Reply to

    SOLD the rest of my $1.30 FRO lottery tickets

    by railsnstocks Jan 8, 2015 4:04 PM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Jan 11, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    new to the MB....

  • Reply to

    someone must be using lpi as a hegde against

    by blueiz1020 Jan 23, 2015 11:01 AM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Jan 23, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    My other energy plays, like PE, are doing great, what is going on with LPI?

    Steady selling....

  • Reply to

    someone must be using lpi as a hegde against

    by blueiz1020 Jan 23, 2015 11:01 AM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Jan 23, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Look at the vol, already more shrs than the average daily vol, someone is unloading very fast...

  • Reply to

    someone must be using lpi as a hegde against

    by blueiz1020 Jan 23, 2015 11:01 AM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Jan 23, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    it seems to have bottomed, and i bot more at 9.24...

  • Reply to

    someone must be using lpi as a hegde against

    by blueiz1020 Jan 23, 2015 11:01 AM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Jan 23, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    imo, a little overly optimistic. I am not sure where LPI will go if oil stays under 50, but I can't see 14-15.

    If you read the repts from the E&P companies, they are all going to pump more in Q1 than Q4. They just can't turn the spigot off that fast. My guess is that Q2 will still be up slightly from Q1, but by Q3 we shd be pumping about the same as Q2. All just my guess.

    If that plays out, I just don't see oil popping until the summer, and I don't see 60/bbl until at least late Q3. Again, just my guess.

    Do you think LPI can get to 14 if oil is still in the 50 range?

  • txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Jan 30, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    sounds like good news to me as an investor, sorry for the people who are losing their jobs.

    The entire E&P sector needs to re#$%$ their plans for the next 2 yrs, shedding costs is the first thing that shd be on their agenda.

  • Reply to

    gdp = 3.42 trying

    by bluedot858 Feb 9, 2015 1:50 PM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Feb 9, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    no idea, but I have others that moved at the same time, so I have to guess there was some oil news...and, they are both retreating at the same time/rate....

  • Reply to

    Blowout numbers......

    by moneynow27 Feb 18, 2015 4:09 PM
    txteapartyguy txteapartyguy Feb 18, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    and new regs coming for oil rail cars. I am totally confused as to why the stock isn't at 40...

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