Right direction but wrong assumption. Isis now has a stronghold in sirte Libya which is 200 miles off the coast of Italy and right in the center of Libya's largest oil reserve- the sirte basin. 2016 will be when Isis runs roughshod through Libya and damages its oil infrastructure. This is what Russia in Syria has been all about.
Oil will go much higher than that. A geopolitical crisis in Libya combined with capex moratoriums and decimated global rig count will probably put us over $110 ppb by summer. Isis command is in Sirte, Libya most important oil basin and all hell is about to break loose. 2016 should be a very very wild oil ride.
Sirte is on Europe doorstep. Its an easy boat ride away if you use Cyprus. Hell, refugees from Syria are making the journey in overloaded #$%$ rubber runners. The US is part on NATO and Europe gets 20% of their oil from Libya. It would be disastrous for the US. Not only would we have to commit forces but it means the billions spent in bombing over the last year not only did nothing but pushed ISIS out and into an even more profitable and safe racket.
There is little doubt that Iran and Iraq will do everything they can to get Isis up and running in Libya. This will spike oil and screw over Europe and the US. 3 birds with one stone.
Low oil prices make Isis stronger. The converse is supposed to be true but it isn't. Several countries that rely on the commodity to finance defense budgets cannot fund a capable force or defense- Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, Iraq, even Egypt. Isis has now set up a stronghold in Sirte, Libya. That's 200 miles from Italy and happens to be smack dab in the center of Libya's largest oil field- the Sirte basin. This OPEC meeting will decide essentially how long the Saudi royal family has to live imho. Mutiny within OPEC, Isis, unsanctioned Iran, a disgruntled Saudi populace, mutiny within the royal family, Russia setting up a Syrian stronghold so they can start statecraft... too many fronts.
2016 will be the year Isis runs roughshod through Libya and clobbers their oil infrastructure so badly that this whole Saudi ''kill the frackers'' plan backfires terribly. These Isis folks are 1-2 steps ahead of the aggressors. Lose Iraq go to Syria. Lose Syria go to Libya. Lose Libya go to Egypt. Lose Egypt go back to Iraq etc... Oil will be over $100 by summer and this whole oil collapse will be forgotten and as irrelevant to longs as the March 2009 market lows.
If SA continues this game it will end in the death of the Royal family and associates. The longer this goes the weaker surrounding states that rely on oil to finance defense budgets get which makes isis and more importantly, their handlers stronger. The longer this goes the more time Russia and arch nemesis Iran have to set up base camp and plot\plan their statecraft. The longer this goes the more power US big oil has in lobbying congress to attack, withdraw or turn a blind eye contingent upon the benefit it has on the price of oil. The longer this goes the more other OPEC members revolt and start backhanding and backstabbing by colluding-Venezuelan president Maduro met with Putin in Iran a few weeks ago. The longer this goes the more money SA has to cut from their Social Welfare budget which makes its own population a liability.
So yeah, either Saudi Arabia will cut their output or someone will cut it for them. 2016 should be quite something.
Price shock could be a real reality in 2017 with WTI and Brent both well above $100. Auto sales (and most of those are trucks, SUV's and crossovers) are setting historical records month after month and it seems that the start of 2016 will be no different. A geopolitical event (the middle east is a ticking time bomb) could put some extraordinary pressure on oil production capacity as well. Many forget that SA\Russia and most of OPEC are running at maximum capacity. There is no spare capacity and that makes the US the swing producer for both now and at a minimum several years into the future.
Back to Ukraine briefly, the country uses 1.1bfc of annually which is about that of Germany. So, I find that news of truncating Gazprom deliveries significant because nobody has the capacity and infrastructure to supply that but the US.
Long term, chk and the energy industry as a whole are at a rare generational buying opportunity low. By 2035 70% of US electricity will come from gas. Its only 18% now. Demand for oil will be 1.5-1.8 mbpd for 2016 and 2017. I'm diversified in the sector and chi makes up some of that. I see no reason why this company wont be over $10 and back to profitability by 2017 and considerably higher as the industry matures. Many here seem to be short term gambling junkies masquerading as investors. At current prices and precedents long term investing is the only play to be had here and those that do will make a fortune.
Part 1 of 2
Short sellers and bond holders are like lions surveying a wildebeest herd. They look for the weakest wildebeest. They WILL continue to put pressure on CHK and promote all the bad press across the marketsphere and blogosphere while Nat gas and oil are suppressed. A move to 3.99 wouldn't surprise me at all.
A rate hike could put the usd a bit higher. However, do not believe that this rate hike affect will be that long lasting on markets. Most of what's expected has already been priced into both the market and USD. Its no surprise that the fed would hike in December when the last two weeks are anemic in volume. Too, end of year tax selling could hurt the energy sector especially down and outs like CHK.
3 huge ctg power plants worth 2300KW come online by 2Q 2016. The breaking of the polar vortex (thanks to el Nino) will blanket the US with several minus 0 weeks. CHK's restructure and trimming has been impressive and contrary to the bond drama and market maker promoted negative press CHK is in NO danger of a bk filing. The derivative hedges they have in place offer protection from what I expect to be one final blowout in both oil and natural gas. Ichan has been up to his tricks and I have no doubt that his meeting with Poroshenko of Ukraine at the start of 2015 was a move to eventually supply them with a certain amount of gas after they were prepared to truncate the supply from Gazprom (Russia). Yesterday we finally saw the news that Ukraine will no longer be accepting gas from Gazprom. This seems to have the support of the US state department as well if all the headlines earlier this year are to be believed. In fact, it seemed like they were the ones promoting it. On the Oil side of things its all about capex capex capex. Oil is essentially at half cycle costs. Capex has been reduced nearly $1 trillion globally. The current price of paper oil also does not assume any geopolitical risk whatsoever. Part 2 follows-
Remind me of the march 2009 idiots running around calling the worlds end. LOL. Exxon and cvx were going to go bankrupt I remember. The market wouldn't recover for an entire generation. A few years later the market broke its all tome highs and corporate earnings were the most in history.
Shut up. The lions share of the short money has already been made. Now you guys are just holding out for the last dollar. A fools game.
The ctg plants set to open in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2016 are some huge ones-
Williamsport Patriot ctg- 1000MW
Towanda Liberty ctg- 850MW
Clinch River power plant ctg- 500MW
Several more 500MW+ ctg's will fall like dominoes over the next 3 years with the crowning achievement being Dover and Hummel opening in late 2017 that will supply 2500MW to New York City and New York state. These are electrical plants and have nothing to do with heating btw. These will run at full capacity 24\7\365.
El Nino is expected to start breaking up the polar vortex in January and will lead to several deep freezes across the US over the JAN-MARCH winter months similar to 2013's sub zero periods.
I believe demand will be huge in 2016 and many of the ctg's financial models figured average $4 natural gas for profitability with parity of coal. The current energy cycle is searching for a bottom and that's always a good time to start averaging in.
CHK has 3 outcomes. Bankruptcy, buyout, retracement.
Bankruptcy- Chk has whacked their costs so effectively that liquidity is not a going concern. An undrawn credit facility, restructure, layoffs, slashed dividend gives them plenty of time. A share offering is possible too albeit to the detriment of the PPS but that would be short term. Bankruptcy could come but it would have to be a combination of several factors like, an inexorable run on bonds, recession, record warm weather and real estate crash- not in any specific order.
Buyout- likely price would be for close to $8B. For the buyer the price would be close to $18B for them after assuming the debt which would still be a steal over the long term. By 2035 70% of US electricity will come from natural gas (as opposed to the current 18%). Too, infrastructure for moving gas and extraction costs will fall by a staggering 65%. Recent moves by management seem to suggest a preparation for a company sale.
Retracement- Chk weathers the next year and returns to profitability.
LOL. Stupid. Meanwhile oil is getting torched. Saudis have zero incentive to do that. Chk will be bankrupt and this energy market will remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid.
You don't understand. CAPEX. Wells are not infinite esp us shale. Demand grows by 1m bpd on avg. If the top producers are producing at near max capacity and the capex has been trimmed to the marrow what happens is oil rebalance and moves up. A geopolitical event or worse, a market maker rigged event could send oil to the stratosphere. $150 or higher. The oil glut is coming to an end and the ship traffic jam is the shorts swan song. The rhetoric about the marketsphere is worse than march of 2009 when oil was going to below $25 permanently and the days of great power wielded by the oil industry majors was over. Please. $75 in 2016 and over $100 in 2017 inmho.
This ship buildup is nothing new and its excellent news for oil bulls. Rebalancing is taking place about 2 quarters faster than anticipated. A post panamax size ship buildup is an auspice to large production cuts. Remember Russia\SA\UAE are producing at MAX capacity all the while capes has been cut by 1 trillion $ globally. The real fear here should be an oil supermen above $150 within 2 years. This doesn't even take into consideration a geopolitical or related event.
LOL. The Saudi dominance is over. That ended with fracking. Too, many of these companies are hedged long term for sub $40 oil. Prices for US fracking plummeted by 30% in one year thanks to technology and the prices might fall by another 30% thru 2017. Any surge in price will be met with a surge in US production (remember, Russia and Saudi Arabia are already running at max capacity). The US is the new swing producer and middle east dominance is a thing of the past. Saudi Arabia will go broke before US production goes bust. Will us see bankruptcies? Sure. Does it matter? Nope. Those assets will only end up in the hands of larger integrated majors who can produce at even smaller costs and at considerably more speed.
Nonsense. The royal family is running out of choices meanwhile facing clear and present danger. Cheap oil strengthens Isis. How? By weakening surrounding states finances and budgets which in turn makes it impossible to strengthen defenses. Iraq just cut 50% of their military budget. Isis is a serious thorn in the Saudi's side. Yemen is turning into the Saudi's Vietnam. They have already had to parry 4 attacks by Isis on their oil fields and infrastructure.
Cheap oil also invites more and more pressure and influence by Russia whom has long term plans in area with Saudi arch enemy Iran as ally.
The royal family needs oil above $65 or they might not have a family for long. A game of thrones style infighting has already started according to rumor.
This will go up 100% or down 50%. Right here is a simple chance stock. Odds are the flip of a coin. I'd say its like the 50\50 of betting on a sports game randomly but at least in vex you won't lose 100%. Nobody here knows what's going to happen here. Trade accordingly.