Ya i wouldnt say the mkt is oversold by any metric. As far as metrics i only stick to a couple since i am a trader (as opposed to investor) and those are rsi's and bollingers. Was hoping for a discussion on the weekly option plays available here.
It really seems quite evident that a move to spy $200 or below $195 is coming in the next week or two. I don't know what direction it will go and don't really care. Hence, i have plotted a play i think could be tremendously profitable.
My play is to put a weekly option strangle on spy atm. That is, i bought calls and puts at the $196.50 strike for this week and will do another atm strangle before fridays close. Currently the $196.50 call/put strikes sit at .60 and .65 respectively. That means a $1.05 move in any direction will about break even and anything more than a $1.05 move is profit. I actually don't see a more profitable play to be had here. Im a trader, so i am neither bull nor bear. Anyone have an opinion please be generous.
"Favelas" is the proper vernacular for what you call shanties and rat holes. Should see some good sized rioting over the week.
They have this stock on their screener and are waiting for a 25% drop at least before considering another position. And even then they will flip it for a quick profit. This stock has now become the victim of day traders, swing traders, shorts, option players, hft and mm's. nothing left here. Telsa Rowe who used to be on this boarf took millions out a this thing. Funny thing was he authored a post right before approval warning of the very thing thats happened here.
Ha Ha Ha! Another Al Mann toast burnt long! You amateurs have broken every rule of stock investing here. The ones who made money in this are long gone.
Insiders selling all the stock they can offload to you idiots. This company is a one trick pony with zero pipeline, massive debt and gimmick product. Who is going to partner with this busted company?
1) No Partnership. no partner because of unproven ineffective drug, harsh label, and tail risk. Ineffective because it barely beat placebo in mnkd's own designed trials. Tail risk because longterm safety data does not exist and the guilt by association due to exubera. Harsh labeling might mean lung function testing and whos gonna pay for that? This all means mnkd develops, markets and sells drug itself.
2) Debt and Dilution. by doing the above mnkd will be forced to dilute stock substantially to the tune of close to 500M authorized shares. The stock is already grossly diluted and buried in debt.
3) Zero Market. Confusing dosing, time consuming, ineffective, expensive and fact that insulin is being inhaled into the deep lung.
4) Desperate attempt at rebranding Technosphere. You already see this a little bit. Mnkd wants to use technosphere technology to deliver all manner of drugs from pain killers to weight loss. This desperation will be the harbinger to bankruptcy in under 6 months
5) Charade Stops. Finaly the BS ends and company folds. A combination of debt, dilution, poor sales, non-existent drug pipeline, and absurd cash burn rate leads to bankrutcy court.
Bonus- primacy/recency Al Mann past the statistical average age of death finaly croaks and dies a failure.
WTFx100,000,000! Did i miss something here? Per mnkds own clinical trials, Afrezza barely outperformed placebo? Ha Ha Ha Ha! What? Nobody yet on these boards, in the trials, at mnkd, or at the fda can explain the dosing. Nobody knows. Beyong them switching to units (which exubera was not measured in which was a huge mistake) nobody can tell us a thing about dosing. We never knew with the medtone inhaler and with the dreamboat inhaler it seems to have confused even the company making the drug. What a worthless worthless drug. Nobody is going to partner on this garbage.
This post is actually more a conversation with yourself more than anything. You are doing sonething wrong and risky and you are looking for strangers support to ease your guilty conscience. Clearly what you are doing is gambling with money u cannot afford to lose on a speculative biotech while the index and general market have reached all time historical high levels. Mnkd will end disastrously for everyone here. Honestly though, its good to see ignorance rewarded justly every once in while no?
Weekly Option strangles seem a pretty good bet imho as a move above $200 or below $195 seem imminent. Too, the premiums have been chopped to attractive levels because of the historicaly low vix trading range. I dont care which way the market goes i just believe the moves here on out will be good sized and weekly strangles are the only play to be had.
You damed idiot. How many trial dropouts were there? Dont just partit the positive data you fool. The dropout rate was significant and the fda had a big issue and questions about that. How did mnkd counter? By parading a bunch of fools out to talk about how great it was. Corporate bs.
Ive brought this up several times previous! The switch to the dreamboat inhaler from the medtone brought with it a whole new can of worms. The medtone was big and the doses of technosphere insulin delivered were large and not accurate enough even though you only needed 3 reloads per meal. The dreamboat increased dosing accuracy for one reason-multiple small doses combined so it could be tweaked. The huge problem is that those "multiple doses" are in the order of 25-35 cartridge reloads per meal. Its a disaster imho. I see no market for this either.
Well, vix used to be the backstop or "insurance" that folks bought to protect positions. QE replaced that. That said i too believe a dive below 10 is imminent and thats where i hope to buy. At 9, even a 50% spike would put it below historical averages. I believe the vix is at a point right now where it would be hard to lose money buying calls. Not a fan of the vix but at some point one has to say "ok this is a bit over done now".
"$15 on approval"
"$17 on approval"
"We could hit $20+ with approval"
"Massive short squeeze imminent"
"This could be one of the biggest short squeezes ever"
"Once in a lifetime opportunity"
"Shorts are playing with fire here"