This artificial selloff is so obvious even the hft machines are having trouble not to laugh. Way overacted here especially the RUT.
"Ya thats what they said back in the fall of 2008" - And if you would have bought it and held you would have made a fortune.
Vix up 45% in one week, Rsi back to neutral, down trendline far too steep. This has the makings of yet another artificial (fake) selloff before the gun to new highs.
We are not going to break any meaningful support, will test new highs next week and might even close green today. The vix is above 15, the rsi is back to neutral and the down trendline is too sharp. Completely artificial dip. Buy.
Buy this dip with everything you have. This dip is way too artificial. In fact i would not be surprised to see a whipsaw this afternoon to a flat close.
If not then we can expect $171.
A break below support + bullishness = crash.
I think an option strangle here is a great play. Either way the coming move is going to be huge.
$16 was supposed to be the last pivot but with a very real potential for a market fall i think we could fall to $15 before earnings before any significant bounce. The selling of any gain in this stock is relentless. Its feast or famine. One big up day followed by a week ormore of straight selling. This stock is broken.
New England will torch that sad Denver D. Bill B will have a gameplan in place to take down Denver. On the other side the 49ers will hammer the Seahawks.
Yet, bitcoin continues higher. You remind me of the market shorts back in 2010 calling for "da big one" telling we "aint seen nothin yet".
That would be next to impossible. With a vix at 9, calls to puts would have to be 3:1 which would register as the highest in market history. The vix all time low is around 9.5 in 1993 and the s&p was 450- remember there was no trading in Vix futures until 2004, this is important. As an aside the vix spiked over 100% shortly after that '93 low.
If for some reason the vix cut below 11 this market would not pullback, it would crash and hard. The margin selling could bring us below last years low in the s&p 1400's. That vix call trade would be easier than shorting oil when it was above $110 last year. My point is i expect the vix to start to move up with the market this week if there is any upside left before opex.
Strike limit contracts @12. Friday was the drop I had been waiting for. We now stand at call contracts across the S&P outweighing put contracts at more than 2:1. Thats insane. Couple that with record margin debt, stock indexes at all time highs and overbought technical indicators everywhere and we got ourselves the ingredients for a good ol fashioned pullback. Id love to see all this bullishness coupled with a break below support. With that we could see the Vix move up 80% or more in the next 1-2 months.
Call to put ratio over 2:1!! Holy cow! I would not buy this market until i see some serious bearishness and that ratio gets reversed. The VIX is currently at 12. Thats less than 9% to its all time historical low. Hell, one more day like Friday and we are just about there. This is very dangerous territory. Any market move higher and i dont think a correction will come but ratger a full blown crash.
I would watch for a break below support over the next 2 weeks. The Vix just dipped to 12 yesterday. Thats ridiculously low pointing to extreme bullishness and complacency. The vix fall is very worrisome and it really has not much further to fall and i would expect it to start moving up regardless of market direction next week. The vix issue must be rectified before this market goes much higher. A brief selloff and 30%-40% spike in the vix could fix things for a while.