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tydurban 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 3, 2015 9:22 PM Member since: Oct 19, 2009
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  • I was in Greece for most of the summer heretofore. The place is a wasteland from public infrastructure to private enterprise. The only good things are small products or company's run by families. Most of the ATM's I came across were smashed or removed to prevent smashing. The banks windows are boarded up and the doors triple re-enforced. Banks in Greece serve one purpose- a place where gov't employees get their pay and they immediately cash out. Greek banks are insolvent period.

  • tydurban tydurban Jul 25, 2015 11:03 PM Flag

    All the significant money is laying in wait right here folks. Right here in the Fortune 10 oil companies like cvx, xom etc... that have (whats now) ridiculous dividend yields. Buying these stocks is like buying stocks during March of 2009. I see cvx at $115 by years end. Do NOT buy the doom and gloom. My opinions don't even take into consideration a geopolitical or weather event.

  • ... as is the relative strength index on most of the oil sector. I do like this huge dividend yield on mro as do I on Chevron. OPEC by keeping up production is teaching the shale frackin' 'dustry a lesson, forcing bankruptcies of 'lil Indies and consolidation of larger 'Indies into transnational oil conglomerates that they have relationships with. I think by years end the oil bear will be gone. This destruction in oil happened far too fast and its downward momentum is going cause a hard bounce and V shaped recovery. In terms of p\e's inflation adjusted we are lookin' at large oil companies trading near 35 year lows.

    Russia, without access to foreign oil extraction equipment or cooperative projects (because of sanctions) could take 800k bpd out of the market early as 2016. Iran will not make up for that until at least 2017 because most of the oil they will have before them is that bitumen #$%$ that man refiners won't even bother catalytically crackin'.

    IMO we have sown the seeds of the next energy crisis a ready. Reopening capped wells takes time and money, many indie shalers are bankrupt (or very near), global rig count has plummeted, Russian output will get whacked, global auto sales continue to rise (thanks to Chinese). All that needs to occur is a geopolitical event, a weather event or high demand and in a matter of months we could see oil above $100 quickly. This shiznit rises as fast or often faster than it falls.

    gotsta love these high yieldn' dividends boys. Little downside left. Could break $40 but she won't be there long enough for anyone to get any real money there. Massive massive buy orders lay in wait at $45 which is why I doubt we see $45 oil broken, anything below that might last for a few days or less.

  • Needed a good flush to tighten the bands and re-invigorate the charts. Oil trend looks excellent too bouncing higher after support touchies. Finally got the grexit news priced in as well. Vix hit 20 too so seems everything looking clear now.

  • I hope this market collapses and destroys everyones gain over the past 5 years. In fact I hope nuclear war ends the human population.

  • tydurban tydurban Jul 9, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Bloody mess of red ink tomorrow.

  • At some point you look at the oil sectors relative strength index (now below 25) and you realize that things are laughable. The seeds of the next oil crisis have been sown already and I would not be surprised to see $115 oil next year. This is a fortune 100 company with a huge dividend and massive power politically across the globe. I will be buying shares piecemeal as oil (which has little downside left) tests its lows. Hell, oil might just slip below 40 but it won't be there long enough for most folks to get in.

  • Petrobras? Seriously? Anyone here ever been to Brazil? The place is a wasteland of uneducated violent trash... and actual trash. I have also never been to a more racist country in my life- worse even than India's villages. You think a government let alone a corrupt government can properly run a major transnational? These people couldn't build a world cup stadium without a dozen arrests and foiled murder plots before they broke ground.

    People like to run around and call a country like India a first world country because they have a nuclear bomb and a makeshift space program all the while half the country's water is unusable, children starve to death on the streets and a middle class is non existent. Same goes for Brazil- 3rd world sans nuke or space program. We have a situation where greed, corruption, violence, racism, poverty and lack of education are the norm. A shame because Brazil's resources are enormous. Their resources are plentiful enough to masque the incompetence of the government and its people. Its like giving a drug loving high school drop out $2 trillion dollars.

    This is the same country where Eike Batista, Brazil's richest man worth $34 Billion and considered the smartest man in South America lost all of his money and got himself arrested. If that's not pathetic enough then take into consideration that the judge presiding over his case, the prosecutor and the mayor of the city were found driving around in his seized Ferrari's and McLaren's. Too, Millions in jewelry was pawned by officers who served the warrant on his home.

    This country is full of idiots from the favelas to the military protected gated "light skinned" communities. Leave Petrobas to the gambling junkies masquerading as investors. In a market where one can buy any of the high dividend yielding PPS beaten down majors like cvx, xom, mar etc... you guys are going to choose Petrobas? Where did you learn to invest? Bagholder U?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • tydurban tydurban Jul 25, 2015 10:30 PM Flag

    Part 2

    ...immense pressure from within OPEC to end the strategy. Many members are in dire straits and abject with unbalanced budgets causing social unrest within their countries. Oil below $65 does more damage to OPEC than it does to the US shale. The strategy has failed miserably and cost them half a trillion dollars all the while US shale is in a cocoon prepared to make an even bigger comeback.

    Conclusion- OPEC will abandon the strategy before December 2015. Oil will rebound to $75 by December 2015. Oil majors will be considerably stronger moving forward. OPEC’S strategy will be voted to the obverse of revenue preservation opposed to market share preservation.

  • Reply to

    let me get this straight chesapeake longs...

    by tydurban Jul 24, 2015 6:18 PM
    tydurban tydurban Jul 24, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    Touche'. You make good points. It just seems with the majors the risk is infinitesimal.

  • People on MSNBC actually just said that the cvx divi could be in danger. LMFAOx1000000

    Chevron’s annual dividend is currently $4.28 and the company has about 1.88 billion shares outstanding. That works out to about $8.05 billion in annual dividend payments. Chevron’s operating cash flow was $25.38 billion coupled with $14 billion in cash that it has on hand.

  • I think this could play out quite nicely for the vix and its related products over the next few weeks. My vxx sell target is $26

  • A noisome corpse rots in the corner and someone in the same well lit room has the ignorance to get angry and then ask what the smell is. That's what I saw today on this apple board and across the marketsphere. Margin debt will exacerbate any small pullback ten fold. You think the US has to worry about Greece? We don't, we have to worry about China where our exposure is more than 1000 times the few paltry billion we are exposed to in Greece.

  • No foxycon meany no more sweatshop labor and affordable product. Every company runs its course. This dividendless POS makes products in a competitive space and they won't be missed when they go missing. How many billions wasted on their failed iwatch product?

  • Reply to

    No reason for this sell off today

    by benmax1357 Jul 9, 2015 3:27 PM
    tydurban tydurban Jul 9, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    Ya, no reason at all. Forget the margin debt disaster, the Greek default, the Chinese collapse, the FAILED iwatch product, the fed induced QE bubble and the fact that stocks just made all time historical highs for months straight. Ya, no reason for a selloff, stocks are parabolic, there is never a pullback. Maybe we should start arresting short sellers like the Chinese too?

  • That ladies and gentlemen is the cornerstone and culverts holding up China and to a large degree the US market. Do those type of supports hold up easily under a weight of $600B in margin debt?

  • tydurban tydurban Jul 9, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    Its so obvious-

    1- government seizure
    2- government consolidation of banks
    3- return to drachma or if in euro still a neo Greek central bank.

  • tydurban tydurban Jul 24, 2015 7:45 PM Flag

    Bashforcapital is right. With taxes and permits on land in the middle of nowhere their land assets are completely worthless without oil above $60. Hell, the bep for shale is $75 with current tech although they might get it to $65-$70 by 2017. Alot like cveo imho. Try to think of it like coal mines.

  • Reply to

    Predictions on where Oil goes to

    by jus_b_cuz_i_can Jul 25, 2015 1:22 PM
    tydurban tydurban Jul 25, 2015 8:50 PM Flag

    Repeal of oil export ban would be a huge boon for large US oil companies and it seems that it has bipartisan support.

    Iran oil is low quality bitumen, so until they get major upgrades to their oil infrastructure they didn't have access to because of sanctions they are not a threat to oil price. Maybe in 2 years.

    Auto sales are historically high esp in Asia.

    A geopolitical event can happen anytime.

    Capped wells and low global rig count coupled with exploration moratoriums.

    Oil will be in the $100 range next year.

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