For some reason after I put "ppenningdevries" on ignore, his posts keep coming back. I know he wants this stock to go up, as do I, but his relentless posting of nonsense is very annoying. If his posts contained some substance, I would read them, but unfortunately they don't
I am holding with a 2-3 year time horizon. It just looks like RIO Tinto is adding more supply which will push down IO pricing. I've read that the marginal producers can't make money at prices
Iron Ore Seen Dropping by BHP as Supply Growth Tops Demand
By Glenys Sim - May 8, 2013 3:55 AM CT
Global iron ore supplies will expand faster than demand over the long term, lowering prices and reducing volatility of the raw material used to make steel, according to BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the largest mining company.
New seaborne cargoes will replace more expensive output, mainly in China, Alan Chirgwin, general manager of iron ore marketing, told a conference in Singapore today. He didn’t give price forecasts or define long term. China is the world’s largest buyer of the biggest seaborne cargo after crude oil.
A worker holds up iron ore pellets for a photograph in Cilegon, Banten province, Indonesia. Photographer: Dadang Tri/Bloomberg
Iron ore has lost 10 percent this year, nearing bear-market territory, amid forecasts for an increase in global supplies just as demand growth in China drops. As producers boost output, higher-cost Chinese supply will drop and the price will extend declines, Deutsche Bank AG said in report last month. Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is pressing ahead with its expansion, Alan Smith, president of iron ore Asia, said at the conference today.
“As the new supply gradually displaces high-cost production, it will there
I agree completely. Here is an example of 1 such report:
ron Ore Seen Strong Into 2014 on China Steel Demand, Supply
By Phoebe Sedgman
May 15, 2013 Facebook Tweet LinkedIn Google Plus Email
Iron ore prices will remain strong into 2014 on sustained demand in China, the largest producer of steel, and as an increase in global supply takes longer than expected, according to Morgan Stanley.
While the price has averaged $135 a ton this quarter from $148 in the first three months, that’s more than the bank’s estimate of $130 for the April to June period, analysts Joel Crane and Peter Richardson wrote in a report dated yesterday. The bank maintained its forecasts of $120 in the first quarter of 2014 and $118 in the second.
Iron ore dropped 12 percent this year, nearing a bear market, on signs that economic growth in China is slowing and on expectations of increasing global supply led by Australia, the world’s biggest exporter. Morgan Stanley said April 23 that the global seaborne market will shift into surplus from 2015, after a run of deficits stretching back to at least 2005. Iron ore will be well-supported at more than $100 a ton this year on sustained demand from China, CLSA Ltd. said May 9.
“It is increasingly clear that steel consumption in China remains strong,” Morgan Stanley’s Melbourne-based analysts wrote. “Our assessment of the global seaborne iron ore market is that price strength could continue well into next year.”
Ore with 62 percent iron content delivered to the Chinese port of Tianjin lost 1 percent to $128.10 a dry ton yesterday, according to The Steel Index Ltd. Prices dropped 19 percent from $158.90 on Feb. 20, nearing the definition of a bear market.
Lower lows and lower highs. The only good point is that the volume was light. You need to see a wash out with higher volume before you can declare a bottom is in
This sure does not look god to me either. I saw $440 this morning, but we are down again while the DJIA is 100+ up
The DJIA is up 100+ right now and we are up $.02.....I see that you are happy with an "explosion" back to $16. I am hoping for at least a move to $18, but this stock is making lower lows and lower highs...not good
I like your enthusiasm, but $550 in 4 weeks seems a lit exuberant. I would be happy to see $475
I believe that we might see $17.50+ going into the next earnings CC. My cost basis is about $16.90 and I sold June $17 cov calls this morning for $.24. If they take my shares in June at $17, I'm sure that I can buy them back cheaper. I am hoping to get a favorable ruling from the Brazilian court about foreign earnings taxation. That would give us a pop
You are 100% correct. I noticed that the Aussie $ was down and BHP jumped 1%+. I really don't understand why we are not seeing inflation with all the world's central bankers printing money. Gold, silver and all real (hard) assets should be up
I believe that CLF,RIO and Vale were all down due to:
1) Rio CEO stating that he is going to add more I/O supply
2) Recent spot I/O price is about $127 and Dec futures near $115, both portend lower earnings because 1st qtr had a higher I/O price.
The news on China is overblown and gets headlines on CNBC. China is still going to grow at 7% + for the foreseeable future. The thing that many forget is that they are now compounding from a higher base. Mathematically, to illustrate my point if your GDP was $100 billion and you grew at 10%, you would have a $10 billion increase. On the other hand, if your GDP was $200 billion and you had a 7% increase, you would have a $140 increase
Yes, until the pay for PXP and MMR acquisitions. If you look at the slide presentation for last qtr's CC, you will see their cash flow projections
I keep reading that we should see improving demand in the second half of the year. It seems like the increased supply being brought on by Rio Tinto is weighing negatively on the entire I/O sector
I think that there may be something announced there as well. Cook has to be getting awfully tired of seeing GOOG go up and AAPL go down. I bought the stock at $459.50 earlier after the first big wave of selling. I like the 100B buyback/div. increase plan announced. We need some sales growth from a new product to get this stock moving in the right direction
Daily Settlements for Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Future Futures (FINAL)Trade Date: 05/15/2013
Month Open High Low Last Change Settle Estimated
Volume Prior Day
MAY 13 - - 127.00A - -.67 127.93 - 695
JUN 13 121.30 121.30 121.30 - -.92 121.50 4 544
JLY 13 - - 117.25A - -.83 116.67 40 535
AUG 13 - - - - -1.16 112.90 40 540
SEP 13 - - 112.20A - -1.29 111.42 40 540
OCT 13 - - - - -.33 111.38 30 179
NOV 13 - - - - -.08 111.63 30 149
DEC 13 - - - - -.08 111.88 30 149
JAN 14 - - - - -.29 111.79 - 80
FEB 14 - - - - +.25 112.75 - 80
MAR 14 - - - - UNCH 113.00 - 80
APR 14 - - - - +.25 109.25 - 80
MAY 14 - - - - +.25 108.25 - 80
JUN 14 - - - - +.25 107.50 - 80
JLY 14 - - - - +.25 107.25 - 80
AUG 14 - - - - +.25 107.00 - 80
SEP 14 - - - - +.25 106.75 - 80
OCT 14 - - - - +.25 106.50 - 80
NOV 14 - - - - +.25 106.25 - 80
DEC 14 - - - - +.25 106.00 - 80
Total 214 4,291
Last Updated 05/15/2013 10:31 PM
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