I suggest that you do a little home work and try to answer a few simple questions:
1) Is the thermal coal industry in a growth mode?
2) Why will BTU be expected to grow earning in an industry in Obama's cross hairs?
3) Have you taken any courses in basic financial analysis, if not, please do so.
If you don't want to do the homework, you might consider just buying the S&P 500 index
Did you listen to Frank Hopkins' presentation?
This is a good long term holding at a 20 P/E ratio, but 35+, you are in nose bleed territory. Mr Hopkins hedged a coupled of times in his Q/A session. In February, PXD will present their 2014/5 projections and the next formal quarterly conference call. Until then, we will see price volatility. This stock will trade from 170-200
I listened to Hopkin's presentation, but was unimpressed. PXD has hedged their production at $94. Today WTI was $95. Also, there was a lot of uncertainty in his answers about the ultimate EUR
PXD has a good story, but a 20x PE ratio is enough to pay for this
Vale pays a semi-annual dividend, which varies depending on the current year's earnings. At this point, we do not know how much the next dividend will be; as, the Board has not made a Declaration, and rightfully so until the taxation issue is resolved. This ruling will affect our cash flow and concurrently the shareholder's dividends. To see a record of Vale's historical dividends, just go to Historical Prices and click on dividends only on this website
All I read on this board that we are going to $40+. Intraday, we touched under 36
What's going on?
It looks like we will have about $6 eps for all of 2014. The company is going to grow sales at 20% (apprx). P/E of 30 to 40x translates into a range of 180-240. The problem is that WTI prices are heading down and may hit $80
Oil prices can turn up in a hurry with problems in the Middle East or if the global economy picks up
I would like to see us take out the $227 yearly high, but I doubt it, at least for the next couple of months. If one of the majors wanted to acquire us, then we would see $250+
Right now, I am just in a holding pattern
Since hitting 227, we've fallen off a cliff. I fear that the supply of WTI oil will push prices down. We have not been able to cross above 200 the last few days....not good. There seem to be a lot of questions concerning how much oil really is in the Permian Basin. Until there is some definitive factual evidence, we may have already seen the highs for the year
By Ben Levisohn
In one of those made for Wall Street moments, JPMorgan Cazenove’s equity strategy team is recommending investors short mining stocks, while its mining analysts rush in to defend some individual stocks, including BHP Billiton (BHP), Glencore Xstrata (GLEN.L) and Rio Tinto (RIO).
First the strategists. JPMorgan Cazenove’s Mislav Matejka and team offer seven reasons for their call. Here are a few of the more compelling ones:
1. Miners are up 30% since June lows and the investor sentiment regarding the EM is far more relaxed than it was then. Speculative shorts in copper were record high in July, but had completely unwound by October. The past bear market rallies in the sector tended to last for 4-5 months and deliver 30-35% upside. We are there.
2. Miners display a strong correlation to the relative performance of EM equities, as well as to the movement in Chinese stocks. After the briefest of rebounds, EM have rolled over vs DM already in October, as have Chinese equities. The fact that Mining stocks have remained resilient in the face of this is an opportunity to reduce, in our view…
4. Chinese PMIs were improving since June; however, their internals are getting mixed. Our economists believe that Chinese activity momentum peaked in Q3 and will likely moderate near term.
5. DXY is seeing some stabilisation most recently, after a very weak year. Typically the move up in DXY was a problem for the sector.
JPMorgan Cazenove’s metals & mining team, however, appear to have some reservations. They write:
Our firmly held belief remains intact that diversified miners’ medium term FCF improvement and de-leveraging is undervalued. However, the sector is up ~30% since its June lows and in our view a short term correction is feasible, particularly around seasonal softening in Q1, making it realistic that investors may gain a more attractive entry point in coming months. More defensive investor positioning may favour BHPB (Neutral) and iron ore l
You might be correct regarding a short term pop to 17+, but what if Brazil takes a hard line position regarding the foreign tax liability. Vale and Petrobras are used as "piggy banks" bu Brazil. If you have $2.4 million in 1 stock, that is not very smart investing, even the global economy picks up and I/o62 pricing stays above $100 for the long term. At a minimum, I hope that you bought some puts to protect your multi-million $ investment .
I've been reading your posts about how hedge funds have unfairly punished Vale as the share price decreased after Vale beat eps estimates. Consider this:
Why is the 2014 eps projected to decrease by 8% and the 5 year eps growth a -13.9%?
Jan 2013 we saw our shares at about $110 and a few days ago we were around $220. This old retired Texas oil guy thinks that ain't all bad. This is the soft demand season for oil. Relax, drink a Lone Star or 2 and you will see WTI at $110 next year and this stock will soar. Until then, trade the damn thing with WTI movements and quit whining.